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Horn of Gabriel

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Posts posted by Horn of Gabriel

  1. 1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

    As I said, this is very difficult propaganda to counter. Identity politics is powerful for that reason. You can't prove the Jews of the world AREN'T out to destroy the Aryan race. And you can't prove the world doesn't hate you for being white, straight, and male. That people hold you, Jim from Birmingham, personally responsible for slavery.

    Agree.  I know enough of these people and what isn't helpful is calling them idiots, racist, etc - that just drives them harder into MAGA's arms.  What I mean is that it makes people within this board feel really good but it's not a winning formula politically.

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  2. 1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

    I am white, male, and straight and I never once was told this or thought this. 

    There are many out there who do believe this.  And they voted.

  3. 14 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    Let me guess, you didn't vote against him? Stop validating any thought of "DEI as quotas reborn" rather than smacking it down for the fucking idiocy it is. Until people like you stand up too, the country cannot and will not be salvaged. It'll be burned to the ground and a lot of people will die. And some of them will absolutely deserve it. Unfortunately, a lot of good and innocent people will be hurt in the process. And everyone that voted for him or failed to vote against him will be morally accountable and will be judged by whatever god they believe in and probably a few that they don't. 

    Did you even read my post?  I did NOT vote for Trump.  I did in fact vote for Harris, not that it's your business.  I'm as disgusted with Trump as anyone, especially today.

    People are rightly angry.  You need to separate your anger.  Understanding what Trump tapped into is not the same as justifying it, making excuses for it, normalizing it, or accepting it. 

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  4. 1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

    What we've learned in three years is Russia's military is absolute dogshit.  The EU armed forces would have no problem toting the mail after we leave Ukraine high and dry.

    Hell, the EU should cut a deal with Japan and tell them after Russia collapses they can retake Sakhalin.

    I'm all for it; I just doubt Europe's resolve once the U.S. drops out.  Easier to just let Russia take Ukraine, Moldova, etc.  They'll grasp their pearls but other than Poland I'd be surprised if they put troops down there to act as peacekeepers. They've already donated their spare gear and are just now spinning up their military industrial base.

  5. So next steps now, there is no way Zelenskyy stays in office, right?  His relationship with Trump and necessity of U.S. support for Ukraine precludes it.  Playing out the chess game, Ukraine's moves are:

    1. He stays as President and capitulates to Trump's demand for subjugation and sells out mineral rights and accepts whatever shit deal Trump cuts with the Russians.  Or,
    2. He stays as President and remains steadfast in a "fair" deal for Ukraine, and sees Trump sell him out vs. Russia and withdraw all U.S. support going forward.  His only play here would be to backstop U.S. support with EU support, I don't think there is enough to go around to make up the gap.  Or,
    3. He resigns under pressure from the Ukranian parliment.  Either through appointment or election he is replaced by a new personality, probably more malleable to Trump and more friendly.  Takes whatever deal he can get, or as Lindsay Graham says "He knows his place."  
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  6. I'm libertarian/conservative.  I didn't vote for Trump.  Right now I'm going through all the emotions, but mostly I'm just sad. Sad, embarrassed, and angry.  It's apparent on its face that Russia invaded Ukraine.  Even if one of my kids is doing the "I'm not touching you I'm not touching you" to the other, when the other hits them, that's on them. Fuck Russia.  For the U.S. this is a terrible look in every way: we look every part of the bully, we're cozying up to Russia/Putin, we're denigrating a democratic partner, we're selling out an ally, we're abdicating any type of leadership role and moral authority, we're taking advantage of the weak and stealing their wealth.  We're so far from the "shining city on the hill" that Reagan described, it's sad.  I'm sad.

    And I get why people voted for Trump.  They feel marginalized, overlooked, like the economy left them behind.  They see DEI as quotas reborn and are told that if they're white, male, or straight that they are essentially evil.  Trump tapped into that anger and rage. What I can't square is how they overlook all the stuff above because it's their guy.  "Yeah he's an asshole and he's hurting me, but he's my asshole and he's hurting everyone I hate more."

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  7. 3 hours ago, Hayduke said:

    Again, good points. But K-State found ways to be a national powerhouse under Snyder (and the influence of Jon Wefald as president was a major part). Mississippi State could also find the will to be that competitive again. Tough over the long term for lesser programs to do that consistently, but magical runs where underdogs break the dominance of the bluebloods happen.

    Bottom dwellers in a 64-team super league will still draw fans (maybe more) if there's still something to play for in relegation.

    Some of my most entertaining and satisfying sports moments in recent years involve Mainz (emotional ties for me) scratching out ways to stay in the Bundesliga. About once every 8-10 years they compete for the Champions League, but generally, their efforts to stay out of the relegation zone are enough to interest me when Bayern München only allows someone else to be champ about once every five years.

    Creative planning can make relegation drama work and smart revenue sharing keeps the entire sport healthier. Boiling it down to two big conferences with unsatisfying conference titles (at least this year) and half the country left out is less interesting. ACC and Big 12 teams are too huge a part of football to be cast aside.

    Definitely an awesome time for Texas, and I do love it.  But sports are better when it's not the same four or six teams and regional rivalries abound. SEC dominance (illegitimate in my book, too) was boring. 

    We haven't been back long enough for it to get old, but I can see looking back in 10 years and wishing we'd had someone besides OSU, Michigan, Florida, Georgia and Notre Dame as our Final Four opponents. Wouldn't be surprised to see us play in five or six title games but have only five different opponents in our last 10 or 12 semifinal and final games.

    Things are good, but they could be even better.

     

    I don't doubt that relegation and promotion would be super cool in college football or that it would drive interest across all levels.  I agree that it would. I just can't get over the suspension of disbelief it takes to create a world that would allow it to exist.  A short list, probably incomplete of changes to the current status quo to create promotion/relegation:

    • An actual unified governance structure for the different leagues participating in the pro/rel process. Like the NCAA but with actual centralized power to set rules and teeth to enforce them.  Won't happen because: the member institutions of the NCAA don't actually want enforceable rules on themselves, they want the facade of rules and a bad guy they can turn their fans against whenever they don't want to do something ("we'd do it but the NCAA will say...")
    • A structure with clear leagues at the top, middle, and bottom.  Won't happen because: the B1G and SEC would both want to be that league at the top and neither will go away willingly.  In a merger only one set of leaders will get retained so it's in both their interests to keep things status quo.  Same with Big12/ACC.  Same with AAC, Sunbelt, WAC, etc.
    • A CBA a player's union that sets out enforceable rules for contracts and transfers.  Won't happen because: neither the players or the schools want a union or CBA right now.  The schools don't want to admit they are employees, the players like having free agency twice per year and unlimited contracts with no salary cap.
    • An anti-trust exemption from Congress.  If there is a pro/rel structure governed by a NCAA-like organization, and it covers the majority of CFB teams, they will create a monopoly on the sale of their TV rights and get sued  like the NFL did until they got their antitrust exemption from Congress in 1961.  Why it won't happen: Congress's inability to agree on anything at all, let alone pass it.
    • Buy-in from the current B1G and SEC universities.  Won't happen because: they're in the catbird seat right now. What's their incentive to change?
    • Major changes to existing contracts. Coaches, and soon players would need relegation clauses added to their contracts that reduces their comp if relegated. Won't happen because: Jimmy Sexton ain't signing off on that.

    I'm sure there are many others.  As cool as pro/rel would be, I just can't see going from where we are to that, at least not in my lifetime (I'm in my 40's).

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  8. 17 hours ago, Hayduke said:

    Your post has a number of excellent points, especially your conclusion that there's no will to get things done. But the will -- or the outside pressure -- is coming, largely because we've got a couple of sizable, arguably monopolistic leagues that will need to keep expanding (and sharing) or face blowback.  They'll have to take over the role of the NCAA and spread the wealth better.

    Otherwise, a healthy chunk of the country will ask why Mississippi State gets to keep feeding off of the SEC teat, and why a comparatively limited set of mostly public universities are part of a wealthy professional sports league. The public will question whether we produce too many Johntay Cooks but not enough athletes who finish degrees.

    Relatively speaking, nobody talks about graduation rates any more. That won't last long. The Washington States and Kansas States don't like the new order. They'll organize. There will be lawsuits.

    I haven't paid attention to how serious the effort has become in Georgia to exempt college athletes from income tax on their NIL earnings, but that's not going to sit well with a large part of the Georgia population. That's partly because there's a shiny-new-toy aspect to certain parts of college sports, especially for fans of teams like Texas and the other clear winners of the Big/SEC expansion sweepstakes. It won't last.

    Meanwhile, a lot more teams have been left out, and every state is going to start dealing in the next couple of years with the fallout of changing demographics and the enrollment cliff. Schools are going to close and most will shrink to substantial degrees. Publicly funded support for college sports is going to be scrutinized more. People will realize how much of a complicated mess has been made of what we once thought of as amateur, ancillary sports activity for students.

    And, as you've pointed out, Title IX and the money-losing nature of the vast majority of college sports, especially at the bloated upper level, are another can of worms altogether. The larger political environment and the earthquakes starting to rumble in D.C. will also be part of this.

    Personally, I like the old Big XII, but I might like the old SWC even better if there was a larger playoff system. I hate the loss of regionality. The new SEC/BIG and the NIL era, despite their obvious benefits for the program I love most, has killed much of what I thought would be the appeal of the just-expanded playoff. Feels like a cheat code for Texas.

    Relegation is already happening, but it's not organized and not equitable. It may need to be to help college sports keep thriving.

    There is a ton to talk about in here and I agree with some of it, but disagree with the conclusion.

    On the point about the anti-trust nature of the Power 2, and the feelings of exclusion that the KState's of the world have, you're right.  But KState was never going to win a national title under any permutation of the playoff, and I'm certain that the SEC and B1G have a legion of lawyers specifically designing the changes to the CFP to preserve just enough access to everyone else to either keep them out of court or swing a decision in their favor.  The facts are that the Power 2 now cover the vast majority (like around 70%) of the brands and eyeballs that care about college football.  There won't be enough momentum from the Washington State's of the world to change the system.

    Regarding graduation rate, not enough people care about it to matter anymore.  And it will matter even less when the facade of the "student-athlete" is finally dropped.  I think most Americans are pretty honest about college football being a semi-pro sport at this point: star players making millions, etc.  The world where they were paid in a great college education with room and board is a fading memory.  I'm not sure what you mean by "publicly funded support for college sports," do you mean schools other than Texas using student fees and the academic side sending money to the athletics side?  Because Texas' AD is totally self-funding and actually sends money to academics.

    The Georgia NIL thing is a political loser for anyone other than hard-core Georgia fans.  If I were a non-Georgia fan in that state I'd be pissed: if they get an exception, why not me?  Seems like the kind of thing that drives people to vote a politician out, but we'll see...

    A lot of people miss the regional nature of college football.  I think this venerating the past without seeing its flaws.  Yes it was nice to have a conference that was largely in the state of Texas in the SWC.  The old Big 12 also had a few bright points at its moment in history.  But they also had rampant cheating, Texas and OU carrying the water, and conference mates who detested the rich big boy coming to town and would jihad Texas.  And it gave us home schedules of TTech, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Rice, etc.  Today we lost the regionality but regained 2 important rivalries, entered a conference where every other game is a marquee brand and it shows up in our schedule, plus we get a ton more money for our effort and are part of one of the only 2 relevant conferences now.  I'll take that tradeoff.

    On being in the SEC and NIL being a cheat code for Texas - BRING IT ON.  In my lifetime we've had one generational player who drug his coach to the title.  We've watched Bama, Georgia and others pay under-the-table blatantly for decades and Texas was "too good" for that.  Rather than a cheat code, look at it as finally, FINALLY a level playing field where an aligned death star in Texas is fully armed and operational.  I hope this era never ends and it takes the NCAA and congress a few decades to get their shit together.  The current time is awesome for Texas.

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  9. 7 hours ago, Hayduke said:

    Moving from eighth place in one top-level football conference to a lower level of competition the next year won't drop anyone's budget that dramatically. If your budget is only $70 million one year, you're not competing with the big boys very often anyway, but the fans (and TV) have brought you $70 million despite that. 

    The top 20 NCAA programs in valuation all generated $151 million or more in revenue last year, and that low figure of $151 belonged to Oregon (valued at No. 17). 

    Over time, that can certainly erode. But enough television money and attendance will remain at the "next 64" level (or whatever it is) to keep schools' budgets relatively stable from one year to the next. Easy enough to bake some revenue-sharing into the system, just like it's there now.

    Most revenue goes to the  big two, of course, with the rest of the P5 getting the next level of money.

    So the revenue inequalities likely won't change much just because of relegation.

    And relegation might be "fantasy" for American football message boards, but it's absolute reality for the rest of "world football" and makes a whole lot more money that CFB does. The Premier League alone generates about twice the revenue of P5 football and the EFL adds more than another billion -- all in one little kingdom.

    Works great for soccer because, despite the intellectual inferiority of the rest of the earth to America, they've figured out how to make gazillions at the top level. Yeah, it flows down less and less as it goes. It barely trickles to the virtually amateur Wrexhams of the world, who remain Wrexham only as long as some famous guys don't figure out how to help them compete.

    Mississippi State is a SEC cellar dweller and great candidate to examine for relegation.  This article shows that MSUs FY2024 revenue was $127MM against expenses of $134MM (deficit due to a COVID loan repayment). Football created $43.7MM.  This number is ticket sales, sponsorships, concessions, etc.  The SEC TV deal sent MSU $52.5MM, a number expected to grow significantly in coming years.  

    Currently MSU fields teams in Men's: Football, Basketball, Baseball, Golf, Tennis and Track and Field, plus Women's Basketball, Cross Country, Soccer, Softball, Tennis, Track and Field, and Volleyball. All sports other than football ran a deficit.  

    Let's say MSU gets relegated to the Big12, or something like it.  Last year the Big 12 distributed $470MM to it's member schools.  They did an unequal split for the new members that will equalize in coming years but if you average it, that's $29.4MM per school - and that's before the SEC revenues really kick into high gear when they add another game or play-in tournament for the CFP.  That gap is not going to shrink.

    If you take just the football TV revenue alone, MSU would lose $23MM/year.  The reality would be much worse than that, because a moribund MSU fan base is not showing up for a football team that just got relegated and is now hosting a home schedule of Baylor and West Virginia.  Their ticket revenues would crater as well, let's be generous as say that they only dip by 30%, which is half of the dip that Premier League teams take when relegated (even including parachute payments).  That's a loss of another ~$14.5MM.  The original AD budget of $127MM is now down to $89.5MM.  What gets cut? MSU is relatively poor, they don't have a Boone Pickens to make up the gap.  Student fees can only cover so much.  And don't forget Title IX, you can't just cut women's sports.  They'd scrap everything except football, baseball and (maybe) men's BB and the bare minimum women's sports they'd be required to keep. Even then, all those sports would take huge cuts.

    Are these solvable problems?  Sure, and soccer shows the way: ADs could negotiate relegation clauses in contracts, the NCAA could figure out the player employment legal jumble and work with the players to create a CBA that would allow for buying/selling player contracts, that same currently non-existent player's union could work with the NCAA to create conditions for transfer so that a relegated team doesn't immediately lose all of its players to the portal, conferences could setup parachute payments, etc.  If there's a will there's a way.  The problem is there is no will.  Nobody is beating down Sankey's or any commissioner's door for relegation/promotion.  In fact, it would be actively opposed by any team in the SEC or B1G today for obvious reasons.

    So yeah, relegation is a total and complete fantasy in college football.

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  10. College football - with a huge number of teams of widely varying quality - is absolutely tailor-made for a system with multiple tiers and promotion/relegation. I mean, there’s no comparison whatsoever between Georgia’s program and Kennesaw State’s. If Kennesaw State insists that they need to be in the same division as Georgia, fine, let them earn it and stay there. 
    Not to mention the relegation battles would be epic and generate huge interest. Can you imagine beating your rival toward the end of the year to literally banish them to another division?
    Unfortunately it’s never gonna happen for the same reason that it’s a nonstarter in North American pro sports. Money. We’re moving away from a world in which that might conceivably ever be on the table at breakneck speed. 

    This has been impossible since the OU v NCAA tv decision in the early 80’s and probably before even then.

    If you’re Texas…heck if you’re TTech, your whole athletic department is funded off football. Football is funded by TV money. Can you imagine being the AD whose budget goes from $70MM to $35MM or from $25MM to $4MM because the football team got relegated? At that point not only are you gone, you probably have to cut almost all sports.

    Promotion/relegation is a message board fantasy.
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  11. 2 hours ago, chainsaw said:

    I'm would love more games, but there comes a point where we have to be considerate to the 90% of student athletes who did in fact come to play school and don't get any NIL money.

    If there are no more CCGs, and all of the teams that qualify for the playoffs are equally depleted, then that resolves one of the complaints I have. I still think automatic berths are arbitrary as hell and will invite intra-conference controversy about who would get in and who would be left out. This season it would have been Bama vs SCe vs Ole Miss. The two who get left out would then feel a perhaps unwarranted sense of entitlement to one of the at-large berths, and it would fuck up the chances of a possibly more interesting team like UNLV or a 1-loss MAC or Sun Belt team. Teams like Wichita State, St Louis, and Northern Iowa are what make March Madness so fun and we should be trying to replicate that with CFP.

    As has been shown time and time again, people root for those cinderella's, and they may pick them in a bracket...but they don't watch those games.  Unless it's super close and they tune into the last 2 minutes, maybe.  Having the SD State Aztecs make the F4 was not great for ratings. Ratings drive money, and money drives both realignment and the CFP structure.  Why is anyone surprised by any of this?

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  12. 6 hours ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

    Just realized.  My son will be at Texas for Arch; my wife was attending Tennessee when Peyton was QB.  Weird.

     

    7 hours ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

    Holy S!  I love all of y'all.  

    My son got in.  We were sweating.  3.85 GPA and 1410 on SAT (I think; don't quote me), but in an IB high school, he was "only" top 8%.  He'll be in RTF.  I'm so happy for him.  He's slightly on the spectrum, so extremely quiet and shy.  I've never heard him raise his voice or even cuss.  He's had at least 8 job interviews over the past 3 months with no offers.  I'm under the impression that his demeanor was a hindrance.  And NOW.... a true Longhorn.  Holy shit!  My son is a Longhorn!

    That's awesome.  Very happy for him and for your family! 

    What is his plan with RTF? Production?  Director, editor?  It is a tough road right now.  I did RTF(graduated 2000) and only know a handful of people who actually went into the industry.  One of my best friends was actually very successful, and went from PA, to 2nd 2nd AD, to 2nd AD to 1st AD and even a few director gigs.  But he also was never able to build a family (6 months in one city, 9 months in the next city will do that), and nowadays he says for the studios it's not a question of "if" they produce overseas, it's "which overseas country are we filming in that is the cheapest?"  The US production market has gotten priced out and he hasn't had a production gig in 2 years - especially since post-COVID the streaming services overproduced a ton of content that they're just now getting through releasing.

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  13. 10 hours ago, ztejas said:

     

    Let's watch the Sochan slander and all get some sleep. I gotta be at work in 8 hours - I can continue being a provocative dickhead tomorrow.

    Spurs/Suns 2/20 in Austin I'll be rocking the Sochan threads. 

    ok so that comment wasn't actually intended as Sochan slander.  I have plenty of other comments for that.  I know I've seen small ball lineups this year and last where Sochan slid down to guard the five?  Not arguing that we're not getting better in this trade (we are, a lot), but there are still obvious holes to plug.  A team with Barnes-Bassey-Mamu as their bigs in the playoffs...not great.

  14. 44 minutes ago, ztejas said:

    Michael Jordan Lol GIF

    Yep, he's got the Tom Herman 1000 yard stare part down pat.

    Don't worry we'll soon have a stroked out 75 year old Pop back to run experiments like Sochan PG and lineups that we'll never see again as we "learn what Wemby is comfortable with."  Our defense will improve marginally and we'll fight for that 10th playin spot and wait for those draft picks to pay off.  Sometime around Wemby's 8th or 9th season, barring injury, we'll think about contending again.

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  15. 1 hour ago, Hozz said:

    That said, fuck Ohio State.  They got a deal with Satan himself or something similar.  They have only had like 2 losing seasons in the past 50 or so.  And as everyone here knows, their fans are fucking twats on top of that.

    Fucking this right here.  Every other blue blood has had an extended walk in the desert.  We've had multiple. Bama had down years, even OU and USC.  Nebraska is shit now.  But fucking Ohio State is always ALWAYS at the top.  They are so due for about five disaster coaching hires in a row and I will bask in the glory of their shittiness when it finally shows up.

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