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Js1

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Js1

  1. 1 hour ago, Funk Doctor Spock said:

    What are you on about? Everyone here is a doctor...a lawyer...also a nurse...and an expert in hydraulics. 

    Excuse you I am also a virologist, a foreign policy savant, a ballistics expert and a world renowned athletic trainer.  I know more about football than Sark will ever know in his life.  You think Jerritt Elliot can coach a volleyball program? psh, only because he consults with me. 

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  2. 43 minutes ago, Chopper said:

    There are barely any high-quality state polls anymore. Good polling is expensive, and our media has been captured by corporate interests which are for the most part only concerned with profits. That's why there's so many shitty national polls. It didn't used to be this way. For example, Gallup used to do public polling on behalf of media clients but there's no longer demand for the type of extensive pre-election research they'd do in the public sphere. 

    This is a big one.  You might get a handful of legitimate polling forms (Quinnipiac, Marist, NYT/Siena, Marquette, Suffolk, UMass, Selzer) and whoever CNN/Fox News contract out to, but for the most part, it's a bunch of crap, compounded by being right-wing spam crap, like Insider Advantage, Trafalgar, Emerson, etc. 

    There's not too many left-wing spam polls - maybe Data for Progress. PPP used to poll A LOT back in the day, especially at the district level, and now they rarely commission a new poll. 

    2016/18/20 saw a lot of really good high quality district-level polling, especially by NYT/Siena, and now - *crickets* 

  3. 6 minutes ago, swraith said:

    Is the House in a perpetual state of "toss" up due to so many "safe" districts on each side? I was assuming the Democrats would have a better chance at retaking the House after Harris moved to the top of the ticket.  However, it seems like the House remains locked in a state of "toss up".

    There's not a lot of district-level polling.  Like a dearth, compared to 2020/22. 

    There will be a lot of Election Night surprises because of it. But the House is, to me, lean D. Dems don't need many seats to win back the majority - even accounting for NC being 3 pickups for the GOP from the new maps, Dems can easily retake the majority through the NY/CA seats with higher presidential turnout and NY's new maps.  Not to mention AZ + automatic pickup of new seats in LA and AL. 

  4. Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

    Do you know of historically there is a period before election day where opinions solidify and don’t change, such that good polling/enough data in the set is fairly reflective of the final outcomes?  And if so where are we relative to that time?

    Well this I know - I don't think there's been a change in the PV winner from who was leading post-Labor Day (margin changes, but not the overall winner).  I'd probably bank more on what the state polls look like in say, 30 days, compared to now.  Hence why I think Silver giving Trump a 40% chance of winning the PV is a joke, because Harris has been the national PV leader pre- and post-Labor day. 

    For instance - in September 2020, Ann Selzer had Iowa a TIE race.  In October 2020, like the weekend prior to the election, she dropped that Trump +7 that ended up very close to the final margin.   The closer you get to Election Day, the more accurate polling should be.

  5. 37 minutes ago, BERT said:

    I think you can watch SEC+ game without subscribing to ESPN+ oddly enough. I was able to watch games this past weekend and I don’t have ESPN+ at the moment. As long as your tv provider has SEC network you should be good. I was using a Dish Network login 

    Correct.  SECN+ is an extension of your SEC Network access from your cable or streaming subscription.  ESPN+ is wholly separate from your ESPN access from your cable or streaming subscription.  

    This game is accessible via either your SEC Network cable subscription or your extra ESPN+ subscription. 

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  6. 6 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

    And to put the final nail in the coffin: Arizona is 53% White Non-Hispanic, not 71%, and 50-64 makes up 17% of Arizona, not 35%. Poll is bad and wrong

    It's def a little skewed for age - 50-64 was 26% of the electorate in 2020.  Really got oversampled there.

    The race crosstabs don't look skew-y to me  - 2020 was 74% white, 19% Latino.  This poll is 71% and 19%.  Gender was also the same as 2020 - 52/48

    Party ID is a little screw-y - 2020 was 26 D, 35 R, 39 I and this poll is 32 D, 33 R, 35 I

    Overall, just take it for what it is - a Trafalgar poll.  We need more high quality GA, PA, AZ polls - period.

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