Js1

They have more *committed* voters, but *reliable* voters are college-educated, suburban and female. 3 demographics that Harris is doing better with than Biden. Republicans dominated midterms for years on the back of college-educated and suburban voters, especially suburban women. They always turn up to vote. Those committed voters still have to show up. That's why the ground game is important.

And this is why I laughed at the Q-Pac polls yesterday. NOTHING has happened to dictate MI/WI swinging 6-9 points to Trump since their last polls. Or FL going double digits to Trump unless Dem turnout collapses like 2022 Florida, which isn't going to happen with a competitive Senate race and weed/abortion on the ballot. It has been a remarkably stable race. The swing state polling is broken. We aren't bored. We are tired, boss.

Ground game fucking matters. You have to get voter to the polls. Dems eschewed traditional ground game in 2020 because of COVID and look what happened. @Bateshorn has mentioned this before. A lot of Trump's polling "leads" are based on extremely unreliable voters (young men, especially young Latino and black men, and WWC voters). You have to be in contact with them to get them to the polls. Trump has none of them - no canvassers, no ground game, nada. Because that costs money and we all know where the money for that is going.

October 24!

Huge reason why Harris is not giving cable news, Sunday shows, NYT/WaPo the time of day. It's all gotcha questions or they just want to talk about Trump.

Skeletor (Kellyanne Conway)'s polling firm has Harris up 2 nationally. So probably more like 4-5

One thing I did thing was important - If Trump thinks he's winning bigly, then why did he say Harris should drop out over the 60 Minutes interview? His Truth Social meltdowns always tell the story more than what campaign insiders say. Their job is to project confidence - we are winning! Bigly! The polls we doctor to show Trump show him winning with yuge margins. Then Trump goes on social media and declares Harris should be disqualified or should drop out for XYZ reasons. Why bother if you're "winning?"

CNN has now pivoted October 23 to dueling town halls instead of a debate, since Trump has said no more. Harris said yes, Trump hasn't responded New YorkCNN — With former President Donald Trump ruling out any more presidential debates between now and Election Day, CNN shifting course Thursday and invited both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris to participate in town hall events with voters. Harris immediately accepted the network’s invitation. “Trump may want to hide from the voters, but Vice President Harris welcomes the opportunity to share her vision for a New Way Forward for the country. She is happy to accept CNN’s invitation for a live, televised town hall on October 23 in Pennsylvania,” Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said in a statement. The network said the town halls will take place before a live audience of persuadable and undecided voters from Pennsylvania. “We continue to believe the American people would benefit from hearing more from the two major candidates for President of the United States and so CNN has extended invitations to both Vice President Harris and President Trump’s campaigns to participate in separate CNN Town Halls on October 23,” CNN said in a statement on Thursday. The network previously proposed a debate between Harris and Trump in Atlanta on October 23. Harris quickly accepted the invite, but Trump repeatedly shrugged it off, despite the Harris campaign’s attempts to goad him into participating.

Y'all have to stop wetting yourselves over betting markets. Good god, we have such degenerate gamblers here.

THIS. Dems do not have to respond to every fucking weird accusation Trump makes. Don't give it life.

Republicans and their media and polling mouthpieces have been telling us for 2 years that abortion doesn’t matter and then an election happens and they go all shocked pikachu face

It was a drop of new ballots. I believe it only updates once a day so he reports on it in the morning

It grew about 30k votes from yesterday. It was def a huge dump of votes. Like he said, it may not be sustainable but we’ve been seeing a good 10-15k net per day before this.

Joshua Smithley is PA's version of Jon Ralston. His estimate is Dems need a 390,000 vote firewall (solely Dem returns - Rep returns, not including indies) to feel good heading into Election Day on the presidential side and 350,000 to feel good on the Senate side. Obviously if the indies break 55-45 for Harris, it builds the firewall a little more, but you don't want to project independents like that.

PA firewall jumped 31k to 162k. 40% of the way to 390,000 I do think Dems could surpass it

Good thing the GOP has zero ground game. Republicans have been screaming that they don’t see any canvassers and the “field offices” are empty storefronts in strip malls

No way. That’s my guilty pleasure bad sci-fi disaster movie

Yeah I don’t get it either. I don’t want to say they are intentionally over sampling Trump voters but the NYT did admit they were adding in extra Trump voter demographics (if Trump voters were red M&Ms, they are intentionally adding extra red ones to the bowl) and that’s all I can come up with National polls show a 3-5 point Harris race, district polls show her doing better in the suburbs than Biden and when you have state polls saying he’s going to sweep a majority of the swing states.

I’ve seen The Core. Fuck nuking a hurricane, we have to nuke the core

District polls and national polls are telling a very diff story from state level polling - unless Harris is going to hit 2016 levels of WWC support and shed 10% of non-white voters and pick up zero additional suburb/college voter support.

Wild won that 51-49 in 2022 and 49.7-49.1 Biden in 2020 under current lines More good district level polling

Usually outside of Clark, it’s overwhelmingly R. Except Reno is like 50/50 the last few cycles Ralston will usually do his analysis where Dems and GOP win 92-95% of those ballots and then if the indie vote is 55/45 either way and 50/50. But way too soon to read anything into these numbers Again, looking at the data without Clark is like analyzing Georgia without Atlanta or Wisconsin without Milwaukee. It’s pointless click bait engagement.

It’s def for clicks Ralston even joked LANDSLIDE and then was like “lol no, that’s a joke, Clark hasn’t done anything yet”

I mean, I think polling is pretty broken when 2 polls release within days and one says Trump +13 in FL and one says Trump +4 in FL Like that shouldn’t happen. +4 and +6, yeah. But a 9 point difference says something is fundamentally wrong with the industry.

It was almost 14.5 in one day in some places And it was 60 if you live in Nederland. You don’t have to exaggerate an event from 7 years ago