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Js1

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Js1

  1. 14 minutes ago, JBJ said:

    I don't think SurveyMonkey tries to be a scientific poll - like with respect to managing demographics and such.  Could be wrong, but it's a feedback marketing company first.

    This. It’s not a great polling company. I think anyone can sign up and they ask you age, race, etc. Seems unscientific and totally prone to manipulation. 

     

  2. I expect our pitching to be better than our hitting, since Mike will have better talent in Bollinger, Romero and O'Leary to work with.

    The hitting isn't AWFUL, but we still won't be a power team. Jefferson, Washington, Hathaway, Alcozer and Ellsworth is decent enough talent to start with.  Even Tedder, who had the third most walks on the team and hit some homers - I expect her to be better as a sophomore with better coaching.  Schattle and Slack were the weak links, though Schattle draws walks really well.

    Literally, we can't get any worse offensively. .268 team average, .342 OBP and .376 slugging, 25 HR (we return 20 of them), 141 walks to 251 strikeouts.  Man we were dreadful.  3.4 runs per game and gave up 2.7.  Recipe for being a barely above .500 team.

  3. Just now, Tuco said:

    I'm not much on vigilante justice, but I'm betting the firefighters they endangered kind of wished they beat the every living shit out the Hammonds.

    Support the troops!

    Back the blue!

    ....Pardon people who tried to kill firemen.

    • Like 2
  4. Just now, Pods said:

    The map for both the House and Senate are bad for the Dems, but the Senate map is atrocious. It's going to take a blue wave to retake the House, but would take a blue tsunami to retake the Senate. Anyone setting that as the expectation is likely to be disappointed. I hope it happens, but it's really unlikely. 

    Like I said, if the Dems. somehow picked off 2 and only lost 3 of their own, that would be very much exceeding expectations.

  5. 44 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    So they are using SurveyMonkey.  Where have I heard of that company...oh yeah.

    https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/surveymonkey-shows-hillary-clinton-likely-victor-2016-election-democrat-advantages-across-battlegrounds-final-hours/

    Which proves your point.  

    Although I think Axios is playing up clickbait as well.

    Axios was tweeting it as a BOMBSHELL!

    First off, they get a D- by 538. Terrible. Remember when they showed Hillary only down by 2 in Mississippi? LOL. An entire month of polling? We've already gone through 69 major political bombshells in the past month.

    Secondly, a net loss of 1 seat by the Dems in 2018 Senate would be EXCEEDING expectations. Picking off 2 R-held seats and only losing 3 of the 6 vulnerable seats (MO, ND, IN, FL, WV, MT) with all 3 of the "losses" within the MOE.  Also, these same BOMBSHELL numbers also show them doing exceedingly better in most matchups than they did in the spring polls:

    March -> July

    Tester losing by 13 to generic R --> Tester +8
    Manchin losing by 9 to generic R --> Manchin +13
    McCaskill losing by 8 to Hawley --> McCaskill +2
    Donnelly losing by 6 to generic R --> Donnelly -2
    Baldwin leading generic R by 3 --> Baldwin +13-16
    Stabenow leading generic R by 4 --> Stabenow +12
    Brown leading Renacci by 5 --> Brown + 8
    Casey leading Barletta by 9 --> Casey + 14

    The only matchups that got worse were Heitkamp (-2 to -5), Nelson (+10 to -3 but this has been the swingiest Senate polling all cycle) and Bredesen (+1 in April, now -14 but this looks wrong compared to what's been released).  Still has Sinema and Rosen leading in AZ and NV.

    • Like 1
  6. 1 minute ago, FondrenRoad said:

    The Senate does business?  I actually think the Dems should confirm Kavanaugh quickly if hearings ever occur.  I expect the GOP to delay the confirmation hearings and to try to make the election a SCOTUS referendum.  For one, it would allow McConnell to save face. For two, it would put pressure on Dem Senators in red states, and take the focus off Trump's GOP takeover.

    The next one will be the hill for Dems to die on.  Of course, RBG could surprise me again and live another 3 or 400 years, so maybe that hill never arrives.

    I don't think they're going to delay it.  I think they're going to push for it to get done.  The average (not including Garland) is like 66 days from announcement to confirmation. I could see a mid-September confirmation.  The GOP isn't going to let the new SCOTUS term start without Kavanaugh on the bench.

  7. 2 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

    You sound just like posters in the CR in 2016 scoffing that Trump could never be elected.

    Beto may or may not win, but the attitudes in state toward the GOP are genuinely shifting.

    They also fail to see or acknowledge that Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton are in surprisingly difficult races.  No surprise, that 2 of the WORST state-wide officials elected by the GOP are finally being exposed as completely awful.

  8. 1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

    Russia put Kavanaugh on the list. Runs through Deutsche Bank, laundered by Kennedy's son, right to the chair at SCOTUS. How deep do you really want to go?

    Where does the Marshall of the Supreme Court fit in? Do they stamp approval of the list? Procure the beer for the SCOTUS butt-chugging initiation challenge? 

    • Like 1
  9. 4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

    80 is too old.

    65 should be the automatic retirement age for all "lifetime" appointments.

    Why 65?  66 is currently the age of retirement, soon to be increasing to 67. The average US lifespan is 78 years old, and these people have the top of the top in terms of healthcare.  They can live much longer.  And they also get the entire summer off.

    If not 80, maybe 75.  I think the younger you go for retirement, the more "games" you play with appointments.

  10. 2 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

    I dont know. I think she expects to die on the bench. I just think she expected that to happen during Obama's admin. 

    I think we are at the point where we need a mandatory retirement age. That would solve the conditional retirement or death issue. It would also allow for politics to be played for SCOTUS during elections where politics belong since we'd know exactly who was retiring in every cycle. Youd, maybe, have the occasional justice who dies before retirement age, but its doubtful. These fuckers live a long time. Well past average longevity. 

    This, this, a thousand times this.

    Turn 80 and fuck off to retirement. Enjoy your full benefits for the rest of your life.

  11. 6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

    You were thinking of ways to kill time until you could go get some Whataburger.

    Whataburger transcends time, distance, space, dimensions.

    Clearly, most people left Europe to open Whataburger franchises in the New World. After they acquired Texas from stinky Mexico.

    • Like 2
  12. Just now, FondrenRoad said:

    That's a lot of words that dont address my point. My issue is that Kennedy chose his own successor. I would expect and hope for a President to seek assistance from legal scholars in his selection, just not from the SCOTUS itself. 

    Take your example of Sotomayor. Would you want her to pick her own replacement and have a President rubber stamp it? 

    How can you say that? Kavanaugh said Trump conducted the most exhaustive, lengthy search process EVER!

    So we know he's already a shitty liar.

  13. I mean, not to #bothsides, but all the automatic "yes" quotes from roughly 80% of the GOP Senate caucus is also what is wrong with the process.  Most of them have not even sat down to speak to Kavanaugh either, but their party's guy nominated him, so it's a "yes" before anything happens.

    But not like a GOP senator will buck their party on a SCOTUS vote. They historically never do.

    • Like 2
  14. 15 minutes ago, Parliament said:

    That's a bit unseemly, imho.

    Actually pretty par for the course in 2018, really. 

    All of our government institutions are so politicized that this country is on the verge of something terrifying. We’re going to have 2-4 year wild swings in majority parties, a court that’s heavily political and an executive branch that keeps gaining powers under the guise of “national security” while congress turns into part-time legislators and full-time campaigners. 

    • Like 2
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