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JBJ

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Everything posted by JBJ

  1. My proposal doesn't actually hurt the Notre Dame model. They played 10 P4 opponents and 6 from the ACC. My proposal punishes the ACC for losing 5 games to them AND not having a top 11 team. Basically crowning Notre Dame the champion and Virginia can f right off.
  2. Any team could already do this.
  3. An actual proposal should probably be: 1) An Independent team must schedule 10 P4 teams to be under consideration for a CFP ranking. 2) If 5 or more teams are scheduled from the same conference, the automatic qualifier for that conference will be the higher ranked team by the selection committee between the conference championship and the Independent.
  4. It should be Notre Dame OR the ACC champ have an automatic. They have a scheduling agreement with the ACC and basically play an ACC schedule. This would fix a lot short of forcing them to join or have a decent schedule.
  5. So an 18-team tourney where: Both teams advance from 3 of the first round games. If one team wins the first round, they are eliminated anyway. If one team loses the first round, they could still be in because the previous team won the first round. Selection process and season schedule does not change, so UM, Utah, USC, and Mizzou get left out for JMU, Virginia, etc. 😵
  6. Man, that's what message board rants looked like before message boards were invented.
  7. https://rolltide.com/news/2006/12/8/Statement_from_Mal_Moore_Concerning_the_Search_for_a_Head_Coach Seems luck is a huge factor in coaching hires.
  8. I'd have to dig through data specifically for BYU, but the note on the last one is that teams carry two types of uncertainty with them through the season. One is week-to-week consistency, which is deviation in the normal sense. The other is data reliability. This shrinks over the course of the season, but shrinks most when you play a team that matches evenly with you. For example, if you have a good run defense - have you played a good run team? How many and how good? It's not always necessarily indicative of overall SOS, but they are related at the higher end of the spectrum. And, at the higher end of the spectrum, data reliability is a strong predictor of an upset. You see this play out when say A&M, with the #2 offense but #100+ reliability, suddenly can't move the ball well against Texas who has a great run defense, better than any they have faced.
  9. What I'll say about BYU: - Resume is very good - Resume is still good with a loss - They are the only non-SEC playoff contender that my model thinks it has reliable enough data on to support their power ranking (i.e. they played a schedule that challenged their perceived strengths)
  10. We are moving inevitably toward a system where all the B1G and SEC teams with 7 conference wins will be in, and remaining seats will be invitational after that. Which is fine with me honestly. It would have been the top 7 SEC teams with the top 5 B1Gs this year which would be a badass tourney and rating extravaganza.
  11. It's not us that needs to change. Playoff selection needs to change, and everyone else needs to change. There's no reason to race to the bottom. No one wants this.
  12. Yeah. The Georgia fans that I know are scared of Bama and rooting for A&M to beat Texas for that reason. (They are also irrationally jealous of us, so already hated us.)
  13. Your premise is wrong because we aren't being treated as a 2-loss team. We are being treated as a 3-loss team with a top 10 SOS. Our SOR is stronger than our ranking. It's insane that we are ranked below our SOR with the wins that we have. It means the commitee looked at us and Miami and went. "Texas has the stronger record, lost to #36 vs lost to #24 and #29, much much better wins...okay Miami should be ahead."
  14. Miami has better wins, though. The ND-Miami game has to matter or why do we even play?
  15. Loss column doesn't even matter this year. Ask @Crockett
  16. If you are good enough at Russian roulette, 5 or 6 wouldn't matter.
  17. If the NFL ended today, 6-6 Baltimore is in the Playoffs over 8-4 Buffalo and 9-4 SF who both also have a tougher SOS. ...and the other 6-6 team in the same division played a tougher SOS.
  18. Clemson being good the past decade is the only reason the ACC is considered a power conference. It's why all their brands want out.
  19. Mel's sources are agents. He will bag or promote any players they tell him to in order to maintain access.
  20. They aren't allowed to consider MoV.
  21. THIS 100%. I'm not really mad that we got left out. Young team and it took a while for us to really get going. 5th in the SEC, rough road games. But look at how little other teams have accomplished that are going to be in. And not just one team. Half the field.
  22. Vandy and Notre Dame have very comparable resumes. Won the games they should. Lost two games above them. Vandy edges ND in my SOR, but it's not by much. Vandy has better wins, but ND has better losses.
  23. That's why we are above them in SOR. That's exactly what SOR does, but it's only as good as data going in.
  24. The way I see it is that losing the game will almost always cost you 4 spots (it's probably costing us 5 spots this year), and winning it maybe gives you two spots if SOS is an actual determinant. It starts to make sense to play an OOC game where you are a 7-point favorite (75% chance to win). So if you think are the best team in the nation, you want to schedule like a Pittsburgh at best.
  25. The main issue is scheduling. There is just no way to evaluate these teams, even for computer polls. The teams with the 2nd, 4th, 5th, 12th, 17th, and 18th least reliable data according to my model are: Ohio State, Tech, Indiana, Oregon, Miami, and Notre Dame. It's not a coincidence that these are basically all playoff teams not in the SEC. Dodging tough games is the entire system.
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