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RayDog

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  1. To the extent there is any growth in rural counties it is usually the Latino population. Rural white population is almost in universal decline in Texas. The rural vote is +900,000 or so for Republicans but it is fairly fixed as the voter turnout is already high there. They might get another 100,000 votes there. However the counties in the 11 to 30 population are slowly trending more Democratic and Democrats should gain a net 100,000 or so there.
  2. In 2012 the Democrats won the 10 largest counties in the Presidential race by 57,605. In 2016 it was 622,623 and in 2018 939,235. The Democratic to Republican percentages progressed from 50/49(2012) to 54/41 (2016) to 59/40 in 2018. Given those trends I do think Democrats win the 10 largest counties by more than 1.2 million votes in the 10 million turnout scenario and 1.35 or so with the 10.5 million Bernie turnout.
  3. Around 3% of Republicans voted Libertarian or McMullin and Hillary was still so objectionable that it wasn't enough.
  4. I think it is better to go from the 2018 Cruz- O'Rourke difference of less than 215,000 votes with 8.3 million voters. Although in 2016 3.6% voted Libertarian or McMullin, so Republican never Trumpers will throw away ~300,000 votes in 2020 too. I also think that turnout could vary widely depending on who is the Democratic candidate. for Bloomberg and Biden it would be closer to 10 million, while for Bernie greater than 10.5 million. That could easily be the difference. The key to winning in Texas is not turning swing voters, it is getting traditional non-voters to vote. ~85% of the 2 to 2.5 million voters who did not vote in 2018 will come from the 10 largest counties, which lean democratic. I think the margin in the 10 largest counties will easily be over 215,000 votes greater than in 2018, before factoring in the Libertarian vote. Republicans with have to work hard at suppressing the democratic vote while registering more Republicans. I think that Trump beats Bloomberg or Biden in Texas, but loses to Bernie's turnout.
  5. Here are the videos from the past three weeks. Physics Lies - Electric and Magnetic Fields aren't Real https://youtu.be/-_Qe5HCiPwY Einstein's Lies: The Speed of Light is an Elementary Constant https://youtu.be/lLXStLH8c58 Einstein's Lies: There is No Ether Rest Frame https://youtu.be/b-PGBkAmU7I
  6. If Harris county Democrats Registered and voted like Travis county Democrats the state would flip. Bruce Elfant in a recent article said that if 40,000 to 50,000 more register before November then 96% of eligible Travis county voters will be registered. Given Texas has 16 million registered voters now having 16.5 by November might be possible. I think 10.5 million or more Texans turning out in the general is a real possibility.
  7. With over half of China's population in quarantine, likely for the next two or three months, I think it is impossible that the Coronavirus does not cause a world-wide recession. Supply chains for many things are being disrupted and non-essential goods are not being sold in China nor shipped in or from China. The drop in German car sales alone could send Germany and by extension the rest of the EU into a recession. Economics is not my area of expertise, but it seems inevitable at this point.
  8. Based on the 2017 exit polling, the under 45 group in Alabama voted 60-38 for Jones and made up 35% of the sample. That group and new younger voters could make up over 40% of voters this time. White women, however, voted 63-31 for Moore, which is a disappointment. WP - Alabama Exit Poll As the younger generations move toward having 50% of the vote, Alabama should start becoming competitive. Or, if white women move closer to a 50/50 split, as suburban and college women vote for more Democrats. Things could get interesting in 2024 or 2028, and the same could be said for other Southern states with similar demographics. Of course Georgia is in the lead with this trend, but they are not alone.
  9. I am happy to say that the Philippine summer is off to an early start as it is going to be 93 F today. Also, of those under observation here 386 have tested negative with 66 to go. Many of those tests should be reported later today. I may survive this yet. I am getting concern about this causing a world-wide recession on top of the deaths and illness, as I read a Hundai plant in South Korea shut down due to a lack of parts from China. A large percentage of goods have something sourced from China or are sold to China, more than enough to throw most of the world into a recession. Perhaps that would be best discussed in the political thread.
  10. He will use the covid-19 virus outbreak as an excuse to cancel elections and make himself president for life.
  11. So stop ordering shit off of Amazon and short it? I ordered from Lazada not Amazon.
  12. Krystal Ball asked progressives/DSA fans to vote on what they would do if it was Trump versus Bloomberg. With almost 60000 votes cast and 8 hours to go it was. Bloomberg 26.4% Trump 10.9% Stay Home 62.7%
  13. The mortuary report from the earlier linked video said they had seen an increase since January 26th and was 4 to 5 times normal as of 4 days ago. They had 127 bodies that day and cremated 116. In a city of 11 million there should be ~400 deaths a day, so this mortuary represents 1/12 to 1/15th of the total capacity, which implies 1000-1500 excess deaths per day. 60% of bodies were not coming from hospitals. Extrapolating from that would mean 15,000 to 30,000 total excess deaths since January 26. Some friends have heard even higher estimates extrapolating from mortuary reports. If one million people were infected and had the disease long enough to die of pneumonia or other complications (~12 days) that is a death rate of 1.5% to 3%. If it is still doubling every 6 days then 4 million would be infected now with most being in the early stages of the disease. Since 5 million left Wuhan before the quarantine there should be ~6 million left in the city, so a majority of those may be infected unless they have remained totally isolated. I find that some death rates are estimated to be as low as 0.3%, which does not fit with the mortuary extrapolations. Some of that may be due to the success of medical treatment versus home treatment for those who develop pneumonia in places with good medical resources. It may be years before this gets sorted out, but, to me, extrapolating from such a worse case scenario is still necessary.
  14. I read somewhere that there are already two strains in China. I suspect there are over a million infected in China already and if it continues doubling every 6 days there could be a billion infected by the end of April. We should start seeing lots of new strains. As the CDC has said, this virus is likely here to stay. I will add that I realized something I ordered on-line that I thought was local is actually being shipped from China. Dr John Campbell's recommendation was to put any packages from China in a safe place for a month to make sure the virus is dead before opening it. And wash you hands after handling the package.
  15. If Bernie has a plurality but the DNC gives their nomination to a Republican oligarch they will be handing the election to Trump.
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