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horn4life

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  1. The Republican Party has lurched very hard to the right and since Trump, my racist friends no longer feel compelled to dial back their racists jokes. They used to whisper a lot more the same sorts of jokes. So in that singular way things are NOT as progressive in the fast. I would be very curious to hear a black woman's perspective. I wonder if that black woman might be aware of who those "very good people on both sides" that for the first time since the 1960's had a sitting President bestow such high praise on Nazi and white supremicists. She probably looks at that as a very sharp turn to the right. But it's pretty easy to tell any woman, even a black woman that they used to have rights they do not have now. That women collectively have been put at higher risk because they cannot get the same medical care they could get in 2016. So that is a clear lurch to the right. If you go back to 1992 the curve would not be too noticeable. But let's be honest, 1992 is as meaningless as using a reference point of 60+ years. The trend line has been recently reversed. That's a lot of what makes the demographics of past elections, and more recent shifts with minorities or women at the top of the ticket in contrast to the Trump voter demographics. I think to some of the groups like younger people, women, LBGT folks and blacks, they feel like the progressive trend was reversed in 2016 and even more recently as the Supreme Court's activism is now on steroids erasing what once were some progressive gains. The demographics and how they shift is what is going to be interesting to me. Times are also different in that today that many "conservative" repetitively treat speculation and misinformation the same way the do accurate information. That's another data point of influence on the demographics that mainly influences older white voters for example. I am hopeful that your prediction of younger voter turnout this cycle is accurate. I would find Trump unappealing by comparison simply because of age alone. I think he will not want to step on a debate stage and confirm he's really, really old. So he's gonna try to dodge that showdown unless his internal polling forces him to participate (IMHO) He's got the same baggage as Biden, along with some felony convictions to entice the young folks. The idea that TikTok gives users anything but factual information, that you NEED to fact check for accuracy. My Daughter texted me that Biden stepped down like 10 days before he did... TikTok news...
  2. As we see the early polling close, some of the polls show Harris with a nearly 20 point lead among young people! Of course the problem with young people is they traditionally simply not shown up to the polls. And yes I know it's a boring subject matter, but it is interesting to me to see both the polarization, but also the demographics of the polarization and how small shifts within those can change electoral outcomes.
  3. I was wondering how the demographics broke down the last few elections. And was wondering about the evolution of who votes for whom has evolved over time. Most of the dividing lines are pretty well ingrained, but it was interesting to me to see who turns out, and perhaps more interestingly who does not vote. Anyhow here are a bunch of graphs and such that I thought were interesting. In a race as close as this one is going to be it's just interesting to me to look into the minutia of how the vote breaks down in our Presidential Elections. Anyhow going to be interesting to look back and see if Harris manages to move the needle for young and people of color? I am going to say yes, as most of the kids are barely aware it's an election year. So by the time they start to notice in September the contrast is going to look pretty stark. I am no so naive to think that anything is guaranteed but I also have to consider what is most likely IMHO. If, and it's a big IF, Harris can expand the number of folks voting, she might, just maybe, possibly, conceivably, get to a point where the Presidential ticket will have coattails for the down ballot races. Anyhow I found the different data points interesting and PEW does a great job of the number crunching. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/demographic-profiles-of-republican-and-democratic-voters/. The link is like to page 4 of the paper. Lots of interesting data but there are some of the highlights. NOW LOOK AT THE NUMBERS FROM THE 2008 ELECTION FROM PEW https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2009/04/30/dissecting-the-2008-electorate-most-diverse-in-us-history/ It will be interesting to see if Kamala Harris can bring in the minority and youth vote the way Obama did back in 2008. I think that it is also important to remember that Joe Biden was viewed as the steady hand of experience alongside the more youthful Obama. I think that Harris should pick a white older male VP not because of any personal preference, but simply for the same reasons I thought Biden was a good choice for Obama, they were complementary. I personally think that our own Admiral McRaven would be a brilliant choice, and still allow all the other potential other Dems in positions of power to remain in their positions of power where they can help the most in grass roots I am going to take a huge leap and say that more younger folks will vote for the younger candidate. As well as non-whites who vote at the lowest levels of participation historically. The Dems have been a little more support in the last two elections with greater suburban voters. And I expect that trend to continue this election.
  4. It's actually a pretty simple equation. The GOP just had a convention that had on display the elevation of stupidity and fake masculinity at a level not seen since perhaps the early 1960's, or late 1950's. The bad news is that nothing at all will sway Republicans for voting for Trump because they long ago were able to discard intellectual honesty. Nothing but nothing can be said or done that will prevent them from voting for Trump. Nothing. Harris needs only do a couple things. 1) Expand the number of folks voting this Fall. Her age, race and sex logically will appeal to a younger subset of voters in all three categories. 2) She is not going to get more rural white voters to participate, Trump has those. 3) She can attack, and attack, and attack the most lying and dishonest former President in American history. Trump and the GOP is going to drift more and more towards their thinly veiled racist and misogynistic attacks. Which will help push all the groups of potential greater turnout in group 1 towards Harris. While further cementing the rural Trump support in the more inelastic group 2 because that group is largely both racist and misogynistic. 4) Cognitive decline of Trump and his age will become more, and more apparent. Most folks probably are just tuning in to the Presidential race. In fact Joe Biden stepping down may be the first time a lot of the folks younger folks are starting to pay attention. Fox, the Wall Street Journal and other right wing news sources worked very, very hard the last few months to make age an issue this cycle. Can they unring that bell? Now that Trump is the clearly the mentally diminished candidate? I think not. 5) Trump will refuse to debate Harris. Or he will try very, very hard not to debate her. Because everything I wrote above will be crystallized visually with Harris repeatedly laughing at Trump's responses and quickly pointing out the fallacies. It's still going to be a very, very close race. There are good arguments in appointing a white male as VP demographically. There are good arguments in somebody like Gretchen Whitmer to perhaps help int he Midwest. The VP choice is very important, but only in deciding which pivot to which demographic is most important. A two woman ticket might not work for the most conservative Dems in some of the swing states. But might that ticket boost women enough to surpass any negatives? Lots of VP debating pros and cons. But right now if you want to save democracy, we are in a better place today than yesterday. Thank the Lord for blessing our country with a truly great President like Joe Biden. I wish Joe was a couple years younger. But nobody can ever say that Joe Biden was not the most honorable President any of us have ever seen in our lifetimes!
  5. I have said for a while that Trump is actually an easy target. What does the guy do? He lies and he lies about his score in golf. If I were Harris I would say, "Donald Trump is a lazy liar, who would never, ever, ever allow the press watch a complete round of golf. Because cheaters don't like to be caught cheating! You guys let me know if he will let anyone watch a round. (laughing hilariously) The only thing Donald cheats on more than his golf partners, is his third life partner." Then turn to press, and say. " I dare you guys to ask to watch a round! The squirming will be hilarious!"
  6. Welcome to the 40 Acres. Now start becoming your own Longhorn Legend!
  7. One thing that is sort of interesting me regarding Michelin is the Bib Gourmand ratings. As it was something I searched when we went to NY and Philly 2 weeks ago. Bib Gourmand Not quite a star, but most definitely not a consolation prize, the Bib Gourmand - named after Bibendum, the friendly Michelin Man and the official company mascot for the Michelin Group - is a just-as-esteemed rating that recognizes friendly establishments that serve good food at moderate prices. We found a place called Little Alley in NYC around the corner from our hotel that was awesome for the money. We even got happy hour discounts. So while I don't see an avalanche of Michelin Stars in Texas, I would think that a few would be in order. But we tend to do more casual dining (because it's Texas and I only put on long pants in Summer for funerals and weddings.). So the bib gourmand ratings will probably be the ones I will start trying out in my travels. I'll check the others out in winter...
  8. So if we are spending $19 million on players. That means that we are only spending $10 million more than A&M is spending annually on their past coach... See! There is a way to bring a smile into the Summer doldrums...
  9. So what would you guess the normal rate for your room would be if you rented it out annually unfurnished? Just over half that? I felt like my 30 day rents was about 2.5X normal monthly unfurnished rent would have been. But thanks for the furnishedfinders.com tip!!!
  10. I'm in Texas. On this place everything I would be doing would be NON-mechanical, I am fairly certain. There are two types of renovations I see in my area. The dumpster outside for weeks with a permit. And the under the radar remodels without a permit. Basically where they pile of the debris in the garage and have a dumpster or dump trailer in and out on the same day. If no mechanical work then I would just do the stealth method. Likely a pipe dream, but I thought I might toss it out there. And yes whatever the agreement it would be via attorney. I also thought about using the repairs as a down payment on an interest only loan, but math is tight with higher rates. Anyone have any feedback on renting furnished 30 day or more rentals?
  11. I got here in 1979 and he became as much of the music scene in Austin as the music itself over time. Hell he just retired recently too. I am pretty sure I was standing next to him at the Soulhat reunion show at Antones last fall. RIP you had a good run! Here is his Black Cat recollections https://michaelcorcoran.substack.com/p/clubland-paradise-black-cat-lounge
  12. Also - start roasting your shrimp in the oven! We will never boil shrimp again, as roasting gives perfect cook. 450 degrees, for about 8 minutes or until they turn pink. We boil all the other crap and boil up the shells ahead of time when we peel the shrimp. Then add that shrimp shell base to flavor the boil of the potatoes, corn and shrooms. We also tend to go with head on for the shrimp to get that extra flavor for the base from the heads.
  13. That's what I want to do, but I am pretty sure they don't want to sell. If they did bite, what's the best way (or typical) way to structure a lease purchase? If I was paying a full rent price, and living there I would want an option price and a percentage of the rent to go towards the downpayment. But I am trying to negotiate a way below market rate, by taking on the repair expenses myself. My thinking that I can make good coin subletting it as a 30 day furnished unit to relocation companies, and temporary housing companies catering to insurance companies. Since my house flooded and I remodeled it during covid, I am unfortunately familiar with temporary housing, and the costs shocked me. Seems like somewhere on this thread or another similar one somebody on the board only had furnished rentals because of the additional margin. But we (USAA) was paying $6200 a month for a 1400 square foot barely furnished apartment, that would have normally rented for maybe $2300/mo on a normal lease. The idea of short term renting is not appealing to me at all. But 30 day or more is usually 2-3 months at a pop.
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