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Blotto

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  1. Blotto

    Bidet Meta Threas

    saw an article about supply chain disruption due to corona virus
  2. Lots of people in this country won't have the luxury of June trips to Disney, Disney cruises etc...but there's more to it than parks. The collection of all the sports networks is probably the single biggest reason people still subscribe to cable packages. With no sports, I am guessing cord cutting accelerates. ESPN is certainly losing ad revenue with no sports on. How many people are still paying for ESPN Plus with no sports on? How about movies? They have basically stopped production on new movies, are not seeing ticket revenues from movies ready to go. So they have growth in the small piece of the pie, and what I am guessing will be significant shortfalls on the major revenue contributors. Also notice that direct to consumer only shows up on the revenue pie, not the operating income pie. Disney Plus is a money losing business and Disney's own forecasts project profitability in that business in 5 years. So yeah they can grow subscribers, but depending on the loss they are taking to do that, it doesn't improve profitability. Admittedly a gamble, but I just see Disney as particularly exposed. And while I am relieved to see the cases/deaths starting to level off, I don't think there's any way in hell they open those parks before June. So 2 months out of the quarter with negligible revenue from their largest revenue contributor, and they still have to maintain all those properties.
  3. Jumped in on some DIS puts for Sept (95 strike). Admittedly, I may be completely wrong about how fucked Disney is, but if I'm correct the magnitude of the revenue shortfall should be apparent by the time they release their Q3 numbers. Over 1/3 of their revenue comes from the Parks division, and even if they have the balls to open up their parks, how many people are going to a.) feel comfortable milling around those parks b.) feel comfortable loading up their credit cards to pay for the experience? #STONKS
  4. Yeah I bought at 274 straddles and closed out the calls for exactly I paid for straddle. Free puts at a 274 strike price essentially. Let's see if this market enthusiasm holds entering a 3 day weekend.
  5. I've been trying to talk myself out of buying DIS puts for a couple of days now. This spike up in price on news that will do nothing to offset the massive loss of revenue staring Disney in the face.....fuck it, I'm buying puts tomorrow. Not sure if I'll go past the next earnings call or the Q3 call. And I wonder how many Verizon customers are lumped into that 50 million sub level. Whatever Verizon paid to Disney, I'm guessing its nowhere close to the full $8/mo retail cost. Still at least they got the news out now instead of buried in an earnings call full of what I expect will be pretty ugly. Hopefully this after hours movement holds til the market opens. While they have some diversification in their business, only the Disney+ is positioned to grow during Coronapacolypse. And 50 million subscribers isnt nearly enough for this bullshit: Shit, Disney spent a good portion of 2016-2019 bouncing around $90-$110 per share and that was without Covid19 dick-slapping Mickey silly. ESPN fucked (both ad revenue and cord cutting), movie revenue fucked, parks/cruises double fucked.
  6. Put/calls with the same strike price and same expiration. So my 264 puts are not likely to be worth much of anything at all, unless the market takes a big shit between now and 3PM. Selling at 7.00 basically prevented me from losing anything on the trade, but pretty much also caps my gain unless there is a big reversal and the puts increase in value. As you get later in the day, its gets a bit sketchy because that time premium decays pretty fast on the day of expiration and the OTM side of the straddle has no intrinsic value, obviously.
  7. Out at $7.00 on the call side above, now just need SPY to fall back to earth to pick up value on my basically worthless puts. Great thing about the short trading week is tomorrow and Monday are also expiration dates.
  8. https://www.wdrb.com/news/louisville-physician-faces-felony-charge-after-altercation-over-social-distancing-at-norton-commons/article_dc619080-7914-11ea-a5df-5f7a629cc6a3.html Pain medicine specialist.
  9. Junior seems like the type to worry more about himself. Hope he's flexible.
  10. I dug Austin a lot in the early-mid 90's when I was at UT. Moved back about 10 years ago after bouncing around the country and ending up in the Bay Area, and was surprised how completely different it felt. And it is different, but I think a lot of it also has to do with the way you look at life when you are 18 (with zero fucks to give) vs being in your 40's. I suspect that for a 18-22 year old, Austin feels a lot more like the Austin that we remember than it does to us today. And like all of us, they will be bitching in 25 years about exactly the same thing.
  11. As alluded to up above, I'm largely in cash and not looking to make any move significant long term moves, BUT I have been buying short expiry SPY straddles like a motherfucker. If the market insists on moving 2-5% every damn day, I'll ride that gravy train for as long as its available. You don't even have to guess which direction the damn thing will move. Here's some data on SPY since the market bottomed on March 23rd. In the last 12 days of trading, the smallest difference between the daily high and low is $7.00+. That's fucking insane. The days highlighted in gray are days when SPY had options expiring that day (MWF). Starting on 3/27, I have been blindly buying at the money straddles right at market close for the SPY options expiring the next trading session. These have recently been running at about $6 or $7 per straddle. For example, last Friday I bought SPY straddles (248 strike )for $6.75 each. When the market opened on Monday, I sold the calls for $10.20 and held onto the puts hoping for a reversal, but they expired worthless. Still good for a ~50% return and could have been much more profitable had I held onto the calls longer. But I have no idea what the market is going to do from hour to hour, so I sold early to lock in a profit. Rinse, repeat this afternoon. I picked up straddles (264 strike) for about $6.50 each, so we'll see how she pans out. Worst case, even if the market opens dead nuts on the strike price tomorrow, my position will probably only be down ~20% or less, and I can decide if I want to cut bait or hold for some movement later in the day. Each of my 4 attempts so far have yielded profits of at least 50%, so I'm likely holding until at least noon. And yes, I am absolutely aware that this simplistic strategy can and probably will fail soon once these crazy price swings finally end. But for now, I'm swinging blindly until I get burned a couple of times. This is the #STONKS thread, not the #PrudentFinancialAdvice thread. Plus I'm sitting on a lot of house money from the last 6 weeks, and fucking COVID took away sports and poker.
  12. One year ago, the Nasdaq and S&P were hitting all-time highs. One year later the global economy looks a lot different, certainly a hell of a lot shakier. Nasdaq basically flat and S&P down ~6.5%. I realize the market and the economy are not the same thing and the market has been disconnected from reality for awhile, but when the quarterly earnings start rolling in, I will be interested to see how they align to this period last year. Will it have any effect? Who the fuck knows with the Fed printing press.
  13. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/27/republican-fundraiser-company-coronavirus-152184 Its so brazen. No fucks given. You would think with an upcoming election they would try to be a bit discreet about shit like this. Its almost as if the GOP isnt really concerned about the upcoming election.
  14. Im not even following this conversation in the thread, but based on your descriptor I'm going to guess Haley Stevens. She's a nutbag https://wwjnewsradio.radio.com/articles/news/ranting-michigan-congresswoman-refuses-to-yield-house-floor
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