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babysdaddy

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Posts posted by babysdaddy

  1. 1 hour ago, elfenix said:

    all the reporting i've heard is don't expect a rate cut before may and has been for months.  i guess there was some irrational exuberance that there would be a cut in march and this put that to bed? 

    the big mover here is shelter, which is 36% of the index.  owner's equivalent rent (25.44% of the CPI) was up 6.2% yoy while rent rent (7.671%) was up 6.1%.  the way the BLS calculates these is somewhat controversial and famously laggy.

    on top of that, the fed really can't do much about it.  higher interest rates leads to lower supply, both because builders are going to build fewer new units with their cost of capital going up, and because owner-occupied units have golden handcuffs.  at the same time there's lower demand because the price of money went up.  in that situation the only thing you know for certain is that the quantity will be lower, you do not know if the price will be lower (turns out that, right now, it isn't). 

     

    yes, the 'market' has effectively been attempting to force the Fed's hand by bidding up financial assets in anticipation of a rate cut in March.  Didn't really make sense given how far away we are from the 2% number the Fed wants.  

  2. On 1/27/2024 at 7:09 AM, MonkeyDoughnut said:

    This is where all the talk of a "good" economy needs as asterisk. Pretty direct line to where the "growth" is coming from.

    Pretty difficult to argue with a robust real GDP number in the 4th quarter of 3.3% following the Q3 number of 4.9%.  Increased consumer spending in both goods and services, increases in state and local government spending and nonresidential fixed investment, and increased federal government spending led the way.  Gross nominal GDP for the trailing 4 quarters was just a shade under $28 Trillion.  Inflation rate increases have subsided that gave a boost to real disposable personal income increasing 2.5% for the quarter. Overall real GDP for 2023 was up 2.5% after an increase of 1.9% in 2022.  

    Nominal was up 6.3% in 2023 after a 9.1% increase in 2022.  If we review consumer balance sheets, specifically the liabilities, 66% of debt outstanding are mortgages and 90+% of those are still at the historically low rates of previous years indicating consumers are not feeling the pinch of higher interest rates.  The robust nominal GDP numbers have actually caused the Debt to GDP percentage to decrease the last couple of years, even with massive annual deficits (meaning the US has more borrowing capacity).

    Those concerning increased interest rates have actually provided additional income to investors in the form of higher return on cash balances.

  3. 4 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

    the plan has always been to kick the can down the road, and then fund appropriations to build a longer road.
    it has worked for quite a while, but when interest becomes the largest annual expenditure it seem s unsubstainable; but it has been a good run.

    that's how you know, without a doubt, that QE will be back at some point.  Suppressing rates is the only way the show goes on.  

    • Hook 'Em 1
  4. Nikki isn't pulling the upset.  I was wishcasting that but after Iowa and NH she should realize it is over. Can only think she is staying in and hoping that these trials will somehow shift support away from Trump but, based on polling, the initial indictments did nothing but shift support to him.  

    So, here we are.  Trump v Biden.  And it's not going to be close.  Biden is going to mop the floor with a very very simple message of are you going to vote for a Felon for President?  The answer, for any non-MAGA individual, is a very clear 'no'.  No debates, no parsing of policy, no discussion of immigration, international conflicts, or inflation.  Just pure mental incompetence (#bothsides) and one felon.  

    • Hook 'Em 1
  5. It's really something else how some folks think that misrepresenting and occasionally making up your own facts is a "difference in opinion". You're right slorch, theres not much debate to be had when the thing being disagreed upon is what "is", and the opposing voice has no reasoning or supporting info besides "it just IS!!" Nevermind any court findings or multiple verified reports from journalistic outlets that are equivocated with some opinion piece from an extremist outlet. 
    The Internet has been fucking awash with disinformation, and surly was particularly awful with it during COVID and the 2020 summer of love through Jan 6 when it peaked and the worst offenders finally started catching bans for their repeated bullshit posting.
    There was SUCH a distinct pattern and behavior of "well this link says I'm right so I'm gonna ignore EVERYTHING else". I think that history is a major part of what fueled everyone's reaction - we've seen that shit before, and it's never been in good faith. 

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    • Haha 1
  6. 22 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    Doesn't matter.  He'll be dead.  The force around which the fuckholes coalesce will be gone, and it's been proven that nobody can replace him.  Let them descend into their conspiracies.  Without a leader around which they can rally and re-invigorate their insanity every day, they'll fracture and fall apart.

    yeah, Tucker says you're wrong.  And he'd have an orange martyr to point to. 

  7. 27 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    I hear you.

    But we're all-in now.  This is for all the marbles -- the Republic survives, or not.  And the ONLY way to get there is to soundly defeat Trump, which cripples Trumpism going forward.

    Well, the OTHER way to get there is for Trump to drop fucking dead, which will be the most important moment for the Republic since Lee's surrender at Appomattox.

    Well Christie thinks she's going to get worked by Trump.  But I'll continue my delusional hope that she's able to take him out. 

    And it's better that he lose than die.  Can you imagine the conspiracy theories if he dies after he wins the nomination but prior to the general?  Holy fuck you talk about the Republic melting down

  8. 16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    She’s gaining in New Hampshire.  If one or two other candidates’ followers decide to back her instead, she could make it close enough to embarrass him and maybe take some campaign money away from him.  He has to bury the field in his mind.

    So polls suggest she's within single digits in NH, hence Trumps attacks.  But let's say she finishes 2nd in Iowa, very close (potentially wins) in NH, then wins SC.  Do we actually have a race at that point?  I assume everyone here would prefer her vs. Trump as the nominee.

  9. Ackman is such a whiny bitch.

    And I didn’t know we had such a special poster here. The Reid outs lone viewer. Impressive

    Also, Why is this in the cloak room?

    • Haha 1
  10. image.png.46d800073f1b58cb325a2d262587748c.png
    Saw this online. Trump is the worst and started this hemorrhaging.
    The US National Debt - the entirety of US Treasuries issued to finance Congressional overspending beyond tax receipts - just passed $34 trillion. To put that number in some perspective, consider the following:

    1. In 2015, the national debt was $19.573 trillion. In just 8 years, we have added $14.4 trillion to the debt - a 73.7% increase in the nation's debt.

    2. In just 3 months, from September to December 2023, we added $1 trillion more, from $33T to $34T.

    3. The $34T national debt equals $100K per US citizen, and $202K per US taxpayer. Check my math if you like. There are 340 million US citizens, and 168 million US taxpayers.

    4. The Fed has reduced its UST holdings to $4.8T as part of its QT balance sheet reduction, down about $1T from peak QE.

    5. Foreign holdings of UST debt has held relatively steady at $7.6T, but it is now only 22% of all outstanding UST's. In 2015 it was 32%. It is rotating out of China and Japan and into money-centers like London and Luxembourg. The rest is owned by central banks, and the private sector - banks, insurance companies, money market funds, and bond funds, largely domiciled in the US.

    6. Interest payments as a % of total tax receipts is growing fast with the higher interest rates. It was 35.7% as of Q3 and will likely be higher when reported for Q4. Back in the '90s when the Bond Vigilantes were let loose and Congress last balanced a budget, this ratio got up to 50%. So we aren't there yet, but if there is one thing to get Congress thinking about fiscal discipline, it's higher interest rates eating up tax receipts. One can hope.

    This may be the only way the Fed can influence Congress to shut off the dollar fire hose.
     
    (I'd never heard of this website, but apparently it's a UT MBA grad -- is it one of you guys?-- and it tries to stay neutral: "When commenting, we check our political views at the door. WOLF STREET is a business, finance, and economics site, not a political site. Readers from across the political spectrum are invited and should feel comfortable. It’s OK to mention politicians and policy issues. It’s not OK to descend into partisan bickering.")
    https://wolfstreet.com/2024/01/02/the-incredibly-ballooning-us-government-debt-spikes-by-1-trillion-in-15-weeks-to-34-trillion/

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    • Haha 1
  11. On 12/27/2023 at 5:28 PM, babysdaddy said:

    that's interesting.  Can we see some more stats regarding posting behavior?

     

    How many unique posters in football board?  Recruiting?  

    Of the 2000 unique in CR, who are the top 20 posters and how many posts do they have in the CR?

    Bored so I did a little look at the most active threads/threads with the most posts. 

    Of the top 4 threads, 10 posters out of 2000 unique in the CR account for 15.8% of the posts.  13,868 out of 87,741.  Only lefties in the top 10 but that could be because the righties keep getting crowdsourced or it is self selection bias because the most active threads are like catnip to Dems. Top 4 are 'gqp', 'story about pathetic man', '45 indicted', and 'how fox news works'.  

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