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babysdaddy

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Posts posted by babysdaddy

  1. 1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

    I’m sorry if you got that impression. This is a long-standing trend. PA D registration advantage peak during the first Obama term at around D + 1.2 million. That advantage has been eroding steadily for about 15 years now. 

    Do you have a prediction based on your modeling?

  2. I'm expecting a 2020 map except Trump flips Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. 281 to 257.

    I looked at 538 averages by those 3 states and where they ended up in 2020 and then looked where the sit today.  Wildcard will be Dobbs driver.  Women/men turnout split has been 53/47 +/- historically and that needs to be 55/45 for Harris to win imo.

  3. 53 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

    The bond market is pricing in a GOP sweep. The “Trump trade” expects high inflation if Trump wins. Trump tariffs are inflationary. 

    I listened to Paul Tudor Jones this morning on CNBC and he said he expects deficits to increase $500B under Trump and another $600B on top of that if Harris wins.  So, at least according to him, we are pretty fucked either way.  Minsky moment potential on mid/long dated treasuries.  

  4. Look, I saw the initial clip and was not very impressed with her answer.  Bill followed up with another question and she gave, in my opinion, better answer. 60 minutes edited out the first answer for a reason.  

    Here is the edit in written form from a politico reporter

     

     

    • Haha 1
  5. 1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

    I mean I think you're right but that first sentence is nonsensical. Analysis is frequently biased. It's one of the main places you see bias. 

    Agreed.  My opinion is they do better than anyone else covering politics to remove their bias in their analysis.

  6. 11 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

    Charlie Cook openly writes articles about how Trump has everything he should need to win.  That's actually the premise of his most recent article, and for two years he's written nearly the same article repeatedly. 

    That's analysis, not bias.  Amy and Kathryn own and run the website and they are both decidedly not conservative.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  7. 2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

    I've followed Cook pretty closely for a couple of years now, and there seems to be some obvious bias (towards conservative candidates) to it as well.  I know it's billed as being non partisan, but it sure seems slanted.  

    I can assure you this is not even in the realm of being remotely true.

  8. On 10/1/2024 at 10:01 PM, Brisketexan said:


    Here’s the thing I don’t get: most everyone seems intent on discussing inflation as an American problem. Here’s what this POTUS or Congress did to cause it, blah blah blah, look at me score political points.
    And nobody looks out the window to see that inflation hit EVERY western economy on the exact same timeline. How did Biden, or Trump, or Mark Cuban, or whoever in the US, cause simultaneously high inflation in the UK, Germany, France, Lithuania, Spain, etc etc?
    The recent bout of inflation was a GLOBAL phenomenon, which means that it had GLOBAL causes. We had a black swan event (COVID) that caused massive global economic ripples, which helped trigger significant inflation. Why is that so hard to grasp?

    I thought this was an interesting question so looked up fiscal response by Germany and the UK.  Guessing numbers will be similar to France, Lithuania, Spain, etc.

    Germany

    156 billion (4.7% of gpd) 3/20

    130 billion (3.9% of gdp) 6/20

    60 billion (1.7% of gdp) 3/21

     

    UK

    Spent 310-410 billion pounds. (15% ish of gdp)

     

    US

    5.1Trillion (3.3 in 2020 and 1.8 in 2021) 13% and 7%, respectively in those 2 years.

     

    It was a combination of factors and believe that supply chain issues started the inflation issue and over stimulus by lots of governments exacerbated the problem.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  9. 3 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

    Was Phantom Thread good? Gangs of New York is my favorite of his (with a strong runner up nod to Last of the Mohicans), and I loved There Will Be Blood, but the subject matter of PM looks kinda boring.

    I have downloaded it multiple times to watch on a flight and just can't seem to ever even start it.  I love me some DDL but there is nothing interesting to me about that film.

  10. On 9/28/2024 at 8:08 AM, Dbeasy said:

    A question for the diverse folks on this thread. It seems very obvious to me that the Covid brrrr machine/cash giveaway  initated by the Trump administration is heavily responsible for the inflation mess we’ve been dealing with. The Biden administration also did not initiate policies to deal with it more strongly. So given this, why aren’t economists and other experts placing blame on the Trump administration? Why aren’t they being fried for their inflationary policies? Trump supporters don’t acknowledge or realize this. 

    NO CR, just answering your question with a different view.  Couple of guys that worked for Obama think it was the American Rescue Plan that supercharged inflation.  Party line vote that VP Harris was the tie breaking vote on.  To use your line,  Harris supporters do not acknowledge or realize this.  It is not straightforward and you won't be able to pin 'inflation' on one political party or their leaders.

    https://larrysummers.com/2021/05/24/the-inflation-risk-is-real/

     

    12 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

    Ok smart guys, answer me this:

    The fed cut 50bp and has announced two more cuts likely this year, so why isn’t the 10 year falling?

    I've heard two pretty smart people mention that a possible concern is rate cuts preceding a recession will lead to more stimulus and increased bipartisan government spending.  Meaning investors require higher yield.  Flows typically move to treasuries in times like that, which drive down yields, but that may not be the safe move if inflation reignites.  You might actually have yields spike.

  11. 13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    Iran feels like it has to make a show of force to demonstrate that it's still capable of projecting military power.

    But for flailing conventional missile strikes...it is NOT capable of projecting military power, at least in the levant.  Presuming it launches strikes today, it's kabuki theater.

    I hope you are correct on this one.  It certainly has been true in the past.

  12. 29 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

    They must have loosened up the reins a little bit since last year.  Last year it was admonishing me for bad sportsmanship when I was prompting it to write poems about OU's innate capacity to suck every picosecond since the big bang.

    I had to add in the end because using 'suck' was too much for our AI overlords.

    • Haha 1
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