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Goredho

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Goredho

  1. 17 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

    I would suggest that governments have been brazenly misleading their populaces since time immemorial. That’s this administration, and the one before it and so on and so forth. It would behoove all of us to entertain the idea that we are being lied to even when the lies agree with our viewpoints. 

    I would say we are in an unprecedented golden age of American propaganda and misinformation.  As for entertaining the idea we are being lied to by our institutions, absolutely.  Make sure you apply the same standards you want from others to the institutions you choose to put your own faith into and hold them accountable when they engage in obvious bullshittery.

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  2. 35 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

    You have to know that communications are being monitored at all times in the region, most likely everywhere actually, and some higher up asked about the condition of the facility after the strike and the reply was “Everything is perfectly all right now. We’re fine. We’re all fine here now, thank you. How are you?”

    Between satellite imagery of the activity around the sites and recovered conversations about the work to be done they’ll know in short order how effective the strikes were. I doubt the Iranians are sophisticated enough or have the organizational discipline to keep it quiet for long. 

    I have no doubt that we have a reasonably accurate damage assessment in hand.  I’m just not sure it’s in the President's hand, and if it is, if it would be allowed to contradict the result he proclaimed shortly after the attack.

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  3. There should be an SNL skit where Trump orders the strike and everyone in the war room starts pantomiming an air attack on Iran.  Running around with their arms spread like wings and making whooshing sounds while others act out explosions and scream “Mercy, Trump!  Mercy!”  Then JD Vance speaks up to say, “Mr President.  Through your daring leadership, you have completely obliterated Iran’s nuclear program and ushered in a golden age of Middle East peace.”

    Tulsi Gabbard raises her hand and says, “Wait… we are getting intelligence reports that we may n…”. JD cuts her off “SHUT THE FUCK UP, TULSI!!!  YOU ARE OUT OF YOUR ELEMENT!!”

    Needs an ending.

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  4. Are we sure it’s a good thing to shatter the President’s notion that he successfully nuked Iran into the Stone Age?  I mean, we either did, in which case there’s no need for us to get further entangled, or he thinks we did, in which case there’s no need for us to get further entangled.

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  5. 3 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

    Exactly.

    They very much do not want a dead American soldier.

    What they want is to be able to tell their people that we hit them with 12 bombs, so they launched 12 missiles in a proportionate response.  No one in Iran can verify the effectiveness of either strike, so it sounds good to them.  

    This can be the end of it if we keep our war boner in our pants.

    Dibs on War Boner as a band name.

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  6. 8 minutes ago, capnamerca said:

    It's worth reminding eveyone that AI right now is just really, really, really advanced auto-complete. It can only present answers based on situations that it's seen before, that it's been trained on. There's quite a bit of very advanced science that makes it LOOK like AI is thinking, but it's really not - it's just Deep Blue finally beating a chess grandmaster because it can logically search the entire possible outcomes of any chess move faster than a human can do it.

    AI gets dirty when pressed because that's what humans do. And generally, in case you haven't noticed, humans kinda suck.

    That this was your 666th post tells me all I need to know, AI.  Begone you false human!!

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  7. Well, we can only move forward now.  If we didn’t force terminate their nuke program last night, we’ve got to finish it.  I don’t see how that happens without boots on the ground.  I hope they are Israeli boots.

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  8. 1 minute ago, G650 said:

    I am not sure you guys do. All we did was wipe out the physical assets.

    Yeah, have wondered if open sourcing “how to build a nuke program” to the Muslim world might be on the table if Iran became convinced that the combined Israeli/US operations were intended to erase its existence.

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  9. 43 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

    The fewer countries that have access to nuclear weapons the better. The more countries that have access to nuclear weapons, the more inherently dangerous the world is, on an existential level. 

    I'm not a fan of Trump, but I am in favor of the risk/reward calculus here. Potentially eliminating Iran's nuclear program - and setting a precedent for other countries wishing to develop a nuclear weapon that aren't complete surrogates for China's security concerns - is a good thing, IMO. Of course there are risks. But there was never going to be a better time to do this. Hezbollah and Hamas have been defanged. Iran's air defenses have already been wiped out by Israel. Israel has excellent moment to moment intelligence inside Iran, as evidenced by their assassination of one of the leaders of Hamas while in Iran a couple of years ago, and the assassination strikes it continues to carry out on nuclear scientists and military leaders. 

    I am sorry for anyone and everyone in harm's way, including our service people over there. But potentially eliminating Iran's ability to build a nuclear bomb within my lifetime is a good thing. 

    Yeah, we’ll have to see how it all plays out.  I mean, your post was the prevailing sentiment immediately after the start of Bush II’s second Iraq war, too, and it accomplished very little for its human and monetary cost.

    If Iran’s nuclear program was wiped out so that they can never rebuild and there is no required further commitment of the U.S. to enforce that, then this will be a resounding success and a big feather in Trump’s cap.  If we wind up with retaliations, escalations, invasions, regime change and nation building, it won’t be.

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  10. I'm tipsy and a little high and decided to get ChatGPT to vibe code a virtual AI CEO (named VERA), and then run a controlled test to see how VERA would perform as CEO of Tesla for Jan/Sept 2024 vs Elon Musk's real world performance.  The result?

    image.thumb.png.923b275ff6109a4aefa8e81966c48064.png

    Maybe AI replacing humans isn't such a bad thing after all?

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  11. Asked ChatGPT if Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan were completely destroyed, how long until Iran could build a nuclear bomb if Iran were fully committed.  It said 2-3 years with undetected/uninterrupted rebuilding.

  12. Asked ChatGPT: 

    What would happen if the U.S. took out Iran’s nuclear facilities at fordow using bunker busting bombs?

    Gonna post the response here so we can see how well it predicts what is next.

    Spoiler

    If the U.S. bombed Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant using bunker-busting bombs (e.g. GBU-57 MOP), the consequences would be severe and far-reaching—militarily, diplomatically, and economically. Here’s a direct breakdown:

     

     

    1. Immediate Military Impact

     

     

    • Facility Destruction: Fordow is built deep underground (~80–100m beneath a mountain), but U.S. bunker-busting tech could potentially destroy or disable it. Success depends on intel accuracy and strike precision.
    • Iranian Retaliation: Iran would almost certainly retaliate via:
      • Missile strikes against U.S. bases in Iraq, Syria, or the Persian Gulf.
      • Attacks on Israel via Hezbollah or proxies in Syria and Lebanon.
      • Maritime attacks in the Strait of Hormuz (e.g. mining, ship seizures).
    •  
    • Regional Escalation: Israeli involvement is likely. Gulf States like Saudi Arabia and the UAE might be drawn in or targeted. The conflict could spiral into a regional war.

     

     

     

    2. Global Economic Fallout

     

     

    • Oil Prices Spike: The Strait of Hormuz sees ~20% of global oil trade. Even minor disruption would send oil prices soaring—possibly over $150/barrel.
    • Global Markets Rattle: Investors hate instability. Expect a flight to safety (gold, bonds) and market volatility.

     

     

     

    3. Diplomatic Consequences

     

     

    • Collapse of Diplomacy: Any remaining hopes of reviving the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) would vanish.
    • U.S. Isolation: Allies in Europe, China, and possibly parts of the Global South would likely condemn the strike unless it followed clear evidence of imminent nuclear breakout.
    • UN Fallout: UN Security Council session would be called; Russia and China would use the moment to hammer U.S. “aggression.”

     

     

     

    4. Nuclear Program Reaction

     

     

    • Iran Reboots Full-Scale: Iran would likely abandon all pretense of civilian nuclear work and go full-speed toward a bomb, arguing that only nukes can deter attacks.
    • Breakout Timeline Accelerates: Ironically, a strike might shorten the time to a nuclear weapon if Iran decides to rebuild in secret without IAEA oversight.

     

     

     

    5. Domestic Political Fallout

     

     

    • War Fatigue: U.S. public appetite for another Middle Eastern conflict is low. There’d be heavy scrutiny of the rationale and endgame.
    • Terror Risks: Risk of terror plots or cyberattacks on U.S. assets or infrastructure in retaliation.

     

     

     

    Bottom Line:

     

     

    A strike on Fordow would likely prevent or delay Iranian nuclear weaponization—but at the cost of igniting a regional war, damaging the global economy, and possibly accelerating Iran’s nuclear resolve. Unless it’s a last-resort act to prevent imminent nuclear breakout, it would be a high-risk gamble.

     

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