Everything posted by Hank Chinaski
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2023 Houston Astros Thread
Itās all true. Itās also why nobody should expect it to change that drastically when Altuve does come back. He should be worth about 3 wins over 60% of a season (which is great, but itās not going to turn this team into a real contender). This team will be in a dogfight for a wild card spot. Hopefully.
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2023 Houston Astros Thread
Oh I agree. I just went down a rabbit hole of Dubon savant data (never thought Iād utter that sentence) and noticed his contact and K rates. Heās nearing sufficient PAs for those to be meaningful. If he has turned himself into something like an average hitter, that would be great.
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2023 Houston Astros Thread
Dubon is striking out way less than he has throughout his career. We should know if this is real or not in the next few weeks (heās also walking less, but not by much). For now, his contact rates are up. Heās not hitting the ball any harder or barreling it more frequently, though his āweakā contact is down. Heās hitting more ground balls and line drives so far. Also hitting it to opposite field more. Weāll see if he has made real adjustments and if they continue to pay off. His .346 BABIP is likely to come down (his career rate is .278), and with a sub-4% BB rate, so will his offensive value. Still, itās not out of the question that he has made some changes/improvements, and he could perhaps be an average-ish hitter.
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Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
I mean, youāre rightā¦calling someone āChris Simms 2.0ā, and believing that this is somehow a negative thing/implies failure, is fucking idiotic; but in fairness to these dipshits, half of our own fan base would think the same thing.
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Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
Right, words donāt exist (in English anyway) to describe it. I think I first realized this in earnest when I witnessed them trying to rationalize the 2005 season. If asked, theyād tell you that VY wasnāt even a real QB, Mack was a bad coach, and the rest of the players were overrated. But theyād also say that the success of any of those three entities (VY, Mack, rest of team) was made possible only by their being buoyed by other two (who theyād discredit if taken individually). It truly was (and remains) a step beyond just regular, everyday cognitive dissonance.
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Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
Wait, are they under the impression that Manning is competing for the starting QB job on 2023? Wtf.
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2023 MLB thread
I mean, he went to a WS with each of them, and won one.
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2023 Houston Astros Thread
Or with a mediocre pitching staff.
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Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Agreed, theyāre the only opponent who has failed to win their series against the Astros in 2023.- 2023 Spring Practice to Fall Camp Thread - Just hook it to my veins!
Together, they should play an elite third base.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Yes, but a 25% K rate is a signal, and we get new data points every day.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Theyāve had stretches like this the last few years for sure. Thing is, Springer, Correa, Verlander, Cole, Altuve (for a long time) arenāt walking through that door.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
What youāre saying is reasonable and I hope youāre right; but I disagree with this part. Fangraphs projects 88 wins right now, and thatās based on nothing but objective data. Now obviously they donāt always nail it, but it is objective support for my subjective forecast. I am probably not as high on Brown (at least for this year) as others, and heās essentially replacing the best performing pitcher in baseball. Again, if he allows twice the runs JV did (per inning), Iād be ecstatic. Iād bet the over. Iām also not that high on Pena. Heās good (not great) defensively (gold glove notwithstanding) and heās not a very good offensive player. I donāt see any reason to assume heāll improve at the plate just because he has a year in the bigs. Heās probably a 100 wRC+ guy unless he stops swinging at bullshit (which, to this point, heās shown no inclination to do).- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Loss of Verlanderās 1.75 ERA over 175 innings + loss of Altuve and his career-best OPS+ for at least 40% of the season (and what we do get is unlikely to be as good as last year) + regression from the bullpen. That all adds up. Over 95? What am I missing here?- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
What management? We didnāt need management this off-season because weāre the Astros.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Fair enough. Thatās what I thought before Altuve injury. Iām seeing 85-88 at this point. This team seems maybe a tick better than mediocre.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
How many wins do you think they finish with? Give me a number or a small range. If you had to bet.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
So through today, the Astrosā offense as a team has a K rate of 25.4%. Last yearās was 19.5%. Thatās a pretty significant jump. K% and BB% tend to reach their level fairly quickly in season. Hopefully this isnāt it. But probably this offense is significantly worse than last yearās. And itās extremely likely the pitching will be worse too. Wheeee.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
He may just not be a very good hitter.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Reminder that weāre actively choosing to lead off every day with a guy who has a sub-.300 career OBP. But this doesnāt matter, we shouldnāt actually try to maximize our chances of winning games because we have so much room for error, right? We can skip an entire off-season because the logo on the hat means everything will just fall into place? Cool.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Probably, but the crazy ass Mets owner might make him a offer that other teams wonāt matchā¦- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
This is pretty much the root of all my annoying and long-winded rants of the past week. Perhaps Iām wrong, but I agree here that there just didnāt seem to be any sort of cohesive plan to construct the roster for 2023. Iām not suggesting any sort of major overhaul, but signing a 1B, bringing back an injured, 1-dimensional vet, and overpaying to retain a reliever and calling it an off-season seemed somewhat negligent, and taking our sweet-ass time to hire a GM reeked of problematic hubris. But you knew you were losing the pitcher who had the best season in MLB. You knew the McCullers was an injury wild card. You let your only offensively-competent utility guy walk. You sign Brantley, who is also an injury wild card. The depth suffered. I think they hired a good GM and agree that long-term, things are in good hands. The problem is that it feels like they failed to maximize a championship-caliber teamās odds of adding another title this year, again, due to their hubris. Thatās frustrating because, great as this team has been for a long time now, you donāt always have these opportunities. (And yes, Iām willing to allow for the possibility that Iām wrong and the org did have a plan that included Hensley and Meyers and Julks and Diaz and Brown at the depth Iām saying is missing. I hope this is true. Iād still question the rotation depth even if I assume Brown will be a good pitcher across 150 innings, which I donāt. Thereās still no margin for error.)- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
The Chas thing only makes sense if (1) they just donāt like him that much from a personal/clubhouse perspective, or (2) the org still just really thinks it has reason to believe in Meyers. Or I guess if it could be a combo of those. I had an indirect connection to the team for a while until this past winter. (Not saying this makes me any sort of āinsiderā or anything like that, or that it validates my opinions in any way.) I did hear that Chas was kind of a weirdo and rubbed some guys the wrong way when he came up as a rookie. No idea if that has anything to do with anything. Iād hope that by now itās a non-issue, and I assume it is. But from where I sit, not giving him the everyday job just doesnāt really compute.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Agree, though Iād still take Pena out of #1 and place him behind Tucker. Bregman should be #1. We all liked George at leadoff, right? Springer: .269/.357/.492 Bregman: .276/.374/.494 - 2023 Houston Astros Thread
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