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Hank Chinaski

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Everything posted by Hank Chinaski

  1. Tucker’s actual results are still pretty far behind his expected results (based on contact quality, BB and K), even though his expected numbers have dropped a bit in the last week or so. He’s had some bad luck, as has Bregman. Unfortunately, the rest of the crappy lineup cannot tolerate bad luck from the 3 good hitters.
  2. It should. Replacing Dubon with Altuve figures to be a massive upgrade. Replacing Quad A with Brantley should be an upgrade. McCormick will help. Though that offensive improvement will probably be offset by replacing 40% of the rotation with Bielak and whoever else.
  3. I think the issue is…they’re just not very good. We’re talking about a lineup featuring Dubon, Maldonado, Meyers, a washed-up Abreu, Hensley/Julks, and Pena almost every day. That’s 2/3 of the lineup made up of quad-A guys, an old 1B whose skill level has significantly declined, and a SS who struggles to recognize balls out of the zone. If that were any other team, we wouldn’t be expecting much from them. It’s just an objectively mediocre/bad lineup, totally dependent on Bregman/Alvarez/Tucker.
  4. 15 straight scoreless innings.
  5. …or replace the manager.
  6. Diaz looks good enough defensively…and Fangraphs gave him a 50-grade “fielding” tool in the preseason (he was their 80th overall prospect), which is average. He’s fine defensively.
  7. He was right about Abreu.
  8. Whitley last posted an ERA under (or anything remotely close to) 3.50 in 2017 between (mostly) A and AA. It is currently 6.00 (7.22 FIP) in the PCL.
  9. This is/was my thinking. You can say we went into the season with 6 starters, but there’s context: 1. LMJ is oft-injured, coming off a season in which he made 8 starts, with no real timetable. He’s thrown more than 130 innings exactly once in his 6 seasons (excluding 2020). 2. Brown is a rookie who threw 126 innings between AAA/MLB last year - a career high for a single season. My perspective is that if these are 2 of your six starters, you lack depth. Now, if the club had reason to believe that anyone they could have signed to a 1-year deal was unlikely to be significantly better than Bielak or Whitley or someone else, fine. They may be right. I’d just feel more confident in that if they, you know, had a general manager/front office leadership making that decision.
  10. I wouldn’t have counted on McCullers. I thought I made that clear.
  11. I guess our disagreement stems from the idea that LMJ should have ever been counted on as a reliable starting pitcher. I’m of the opinion that he isn’t.
  12. *Sixth. And there were six guys last year. There was plenty of discussion around potentially adding rotation depth. Fair point regarding the farm system, but Brown kinda is that guy this year, no? Hopefully there is another that can plug in and perform reasonably well.
  13. Except McCullers was already down. So it was really 5. They should have brought in someone. Eovaldi is an example. Someone like that. And no, he specifically is not setting the world on fire yet, but he has a track record and I’d take my chances on him over some quad-A guy.
  14. In 238 games, Chas has a 113 wRC+ and 4.9 fWAR (so, around 3.3 per 160 games). That’s not prime George Springer or anything, but it is significantly better than “just a guy.” Though, in fairness, he is “just a guy” against righties…but an all-star against lefties.
  15. Nah, Bregman’s underlying data always looked fine. Even two weeks ago, he was hitting the ball as hard as always, striking out and walking as frequently as always, etc. It was clearly bad luck that was driving his poor outcomes and there was no reason at all to worry about him. You can’t say that about Abreu. His contact quality is way down. His strikeouts are way up. We’ve reached a point in the season at which this data tends to stabilize. The Keith Law critique was based on signs that his bat speed was slowing down. That looks prescient right now. I’m not saying he’s done, but there are real indicators that he could be in decline; he wouldn’t be the first guy whose skill and production fell off a cliff in the second half of his 30s.
  16. Was hoping Bijan would go to a team with a good QB. Falcons may not be a bad fit, since they do have an offensive system geared to run and has been successful doing so even with subpar QB play. Unfortunately he’ll look ridiculous because of those those fucking hideous XFL uniforms they wear.
  17. The Rays are good. Obviously they won’t continue to win 80% of their games, but they’re really good. Their offense should slow down (though should be solidly above average) but the pitching is legit.
  18. Who the fuck are these douchebags
  19. That’s probably not much worse than today’s major league lineup.
  20. It’s all true. It’s also why nobody should expect it to change that drastically when Altuve does come back. He should be worth about 3 wins over 60% of a season (which is great, but it’s not going to turn this team into a real contender). This team will be in a dogfight for a wild card spot. Hopefully.
  21. Oh I agree. I just went down a rabbit hole of Dubon savant data (never thought I’d utter that sentence) and noticed his contact and K rates. He’s nearing sufficient PAs for those to be meaningful. If he has turned himself into something like an average hitter, that would be great.
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