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Hank Chinaski

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Everything posted by Hank Chinaski

  1. I mean, it has to be scored as a walk because it is a walk. The hitter must be credited with a walk from the plate appearance, whether he "earned it" like Bonds used to or he gets it simply because he hits in front of the pitcher. So the pitcher must also be charged a walk. To your point, I am somewhat surprised to see that most of the prominent advanced pitching stats don't appear to differentiate between intentional and unintentional walks. But even philosophically, I'm not sure it is that cut-and-dry as to say that a pitcher doesn't ever "deserve" at least some responsibility for the IBB, as they are often issued because 1B is open (meaning there are baserunners in scoring position), though often it is simply playing the percentages. Over the last 5 full seasons (2015-2019), IBB represented about 6% of all BB. Which means even for starting pitchers, we're talking about fewer than 10 IBB per season. For example, Justin Verlander has thrown almost 3,000 innings in his career and has issued 27 IBB. His highest season total was 8, and he has had 4 seasons with 0 IBB and 4 more seasons with 1 IBB. So - its probably not statistically relevant enough to differentiate between IBB and BB.
  2. I remember the Dome's scoreboard and $1 general admission outfield seats (and actually feeling cold because they cranked the shit out of that AC); when Dickie Thon was an emerging star before a beanball broke his face and derailed his career; Mike Scott and Glenn Davis (whom Milo dubbed "the Big Bopper") and - yes - Jose Cruz (and Nolan and Knepper and Doran and Bass and Hatcher and Puhl and Walling and Garner and Reynolds and Ashby and Kerfeld) and the '86 division winner in the club's 25th year; Scott's no-hitter to clinch (afternoon game and I caught the last few innings after the conclusion of my 4th-grade school day); Hatcher's foul pole HR and Bass striking out to end that NLCS; Here come the Astros/Burning with desire/Here come the Astros/Breathing orange fire; watching Scott take a no-no through 8 2/3 against the Braves at the Dome before Ken Oberkfell broke it up with a little soft flare; the promise (which never quite materialized) of Eric Anthony; Biggio and Caminiti giving some hope for the future; the acquisition of Bagwell and his ROY award the next year; trading Kenny Lofton for Ed fucking Taubensee and knowing (at age 15) that that didn't seem like a good idea; Drayton taking over and signing Drabek and Swindell and it felt like the tide was turning; the first of 2 unfortunate rebrand/uniform changes; Bagwell's MVP year and the second one he should have won 5 years later; drafting Berkman in the first round out of Rice; acquiring Randy Johnson at the last minute and his 2 months of absolute brilliance; losing that year to the Padres in the NLDS and knowing it was the best team in franchise history to that point; moving to a new stadium; the Beltran acquisition and Edmonds breaking our hearts again with that catch on the Ausmus fly ball in the NLCS; the bittersweet WS appearance the next season in which Bagwell couldn't really play anymore (and getting swept); Drayton letting the franchise talent level completely deteriorate by letting the farm rot and stupidly overpaying aging veterans to keep the club almost mediocre; the move to the AL and the ownership change; being 100% on board with the Lunhow plan to strip it down to the studs because that was always the most direct and expedient path to contending; going to games whenever you felt like it and getting the best seats in the house because the club was awful, the stadium was 80% empty and people were giving tickets away; the emergence of Altuve and the callup of Springer; drafting Correa and Bregman and tracking all of their minor league stats; building up to a champion and perennial contender. Did they cheat and get caught and deserve to be punished? Sure. Was it sensationalized and overblown? Of course, scandals and outrage stir the pot and gets clicks (formerly sold newspapers), especially when MLB's 3 largest fan bases get to conclude "we didn't really lose!". Did the sign stealing seem to impact their performance at all? Not really, because they hit as well (actually better) on the road, in subsequent seasons, in 2021, etc. Can all of these things be true? Yes. Did I type a lot of words responding to Helobious? Sigh, yes.
  3. Hell, those days were great...could almost always get tickets for free and sit wherever you'd like.
  4. I mean, I guess it depends on your definition of "elite." Texas had the best winning% of any P5 team from 00-09. Better than OU, USC, Ohio St, Florida, LSU. That doesn't necessarily mean he was better than Stoops or Carroll (I'd argue he wasn't, though the difference isn't great) or Tressell (I'd take Mack). He was never what Saban or Urban were, but almost nobody in the history of the sport has been. If those two are the threshold for "elite," then yeah, Mack wasn't in that class. I don't know why Mack fell apart after 2009. And I certainly don't need to see a statue of him. But for that decade of 2000-2009, almost nobody in the sport was better.
  5. For the love of god, Dusty. Again and again - just because Bregman hits 3rd doesn't mean his replacement should hit 3rd.
  6. Ray Thornton does not seem terribly interested in posing for this photo op.
  7. Would love to see some of the old USFL teams/uniforms revived. I was age 6-8 when the USFL played in the '80s and it seemed awesome.
  8. Hopefully it'll keep fading until it is no longer there.
  9. See, that's part of why Tebow is so extraordinarily overrated. He was the backup QB in 2006. Chris Leak was the MVP of the title game. Again, Tebow was a really good college QB. I'd say he was behind only VY and Leinart (who was actually the starting QB on 2 title teams and won a Heisman) in the 00's. But he wasn't nearly as good as he was hyped up to be (because he was hyped up to be the greatest college player ever). Yes, he won the Heisman. So did these guys:
  10. Dawson is currently striking out less than 16% of his PAs. In 2019 he was around 30%, mostly in AA. He's not even at 100 PAs yet, so it is obviously early, but may be interesting to watch. I *think* K% tends to stabilize fairly quickly in the course of a season. His swinging strike % is way down so far. If this is a real improvement, he has a shot.
  11. Well, he was unlucky in 2008 when his player dropped an INT that would have put him in the national title game. And it was pretty unlucky the next year when his All-American QB was lost for the game after they did make it to the title game. Those two plays may well have prevented him from winning 3 national titles in a 5-year span. I think Mack's teams were generally smart (didn't commit stupid penalties) and played well on special teams. And he recruited superior talent compared to almost everyone that he played. All that probably helped them win close games.
  12. Astros team wRC+ in 2021: 119 Astros team wRC+ in 2017: 121
  13. The Tebow thing is simple. On top of smart phones and social media (which is a good point) ESPN signed a 15 year contract with the SEC in August 2008. The QB on the best SEC team at the time....Tim Tebow. Yeah, that makes sense. That was about the time that the idea that the SEC plays a "different level of football" became the sport's prevalent narrative. It's easy to forget that that wasn't a thing until the last decade or so.
  14. I've really never understood the fascination with Tebow. I've often opined that he is probably the most overrated athlete in recent memory. That doesn't mean that he was not a good college QB; it means that he wasn't nearly as good as he was generally perceived to be. (I know this seems obvious, but you'd be surprised by the arguments people make.) All the "greatest player in college football history" nonsense was generally accepted for a while (it seems like it has finally waned a bit). He was probably the third-best college QB of his decade (VY, Leinart). People still give him credit for winning 2 national titles despite the fact that he wasn't even the starting QB on one of those teams. I still remember Danielson or someone calling him "the best running QB we've seen" - less than 2 years after VY left Texas. It was all so contrived and it snowballed into absurdity. I guess his career sort of coincided with the emergence of social media and smartphones, so that was probably part of it. He was a slightly better Sam Ehlinger with superior coaching and talent around him. That's not a knock - Sam was a good college QB, and Tebow was really good. But neither should ever be in the conversation of "best ever." Anyway, I don't know how Meyer would have fared at Texas; I imagine he'd have probably done well. I'm skeptical about his NFL potential and he seems to be making some bizarre decisions, like this publicity stunt (I don't hate Tebow, but the dude hasn't played football in years and has never played TE - what can he offer that a number of college FAs couldn't?). My guess is that he won't coach in the NFL for very long, maybe about 3 years.
  15. I have fantasized a few times over the years about how good the 2008 Horns team would have been if JC had stuck around (I think they were the best team in the country that year even without him). One of my all-time favs.
  16. I generally hate it when teams move (fuck you, Bud Adams) but if the A's moved to Montreal and became the new Expos, I wouldn't hate it.
  17. It's like we now have 2 Chris Devenskis.
  18. Counterpoint: a good rule of thumb is generally to do the opposite of whatever A&M does. They'd benefit from doing what Costanza did when he decided to do the opposite of his instinct.
  19. Per B-R, he had 86.6 WAR in 11 seasons (7.9/season) with the Cardinals. He has accumulated 12.8 WAR in ~9 (1.4/season) with the Angels. Since 2016, he has -0.4 WAR. And yeah, he and Cabrera should be the last of the guys that get massive deals that begin in their 30s and end in their 40s.
  20. So Altuve is hitting .247 and slugging .333. Per Statcast data, his expected AVG is .321 and expected SLG is .540. During last year's regular season, his AVG and SLG were abysmal, but pretty much consisted with the "expected" numbers. So it at least seems as though he is hitting the ball better this year. Tucker is hitting .183 and slugging .356...expected AVG is .284, expected SLG is .541. The results aren't matching the quality of contact they're making yet. Still early, but I keep waiting for the hits to start falling in...
  21. Altuve is 1/21 in his last 4 games with 4 Ks, meaning he has an .059 BABIP. His current AVG is .273 but his expected AVG is .321 (per Statcast). Likewise, Tucker is hitting .181 but his expected AVG is .290 (and expected SLG is .563). His avg exit velo is higher than Yordan's by 1 mph. His hits should be coming. I am encouraged by his 3 BBs last night too.
  22. No it doesn't. Per FG, for example, he's an above-average defender for his big league career, and he has positive dWAR per B-R. None of these paint him as a spectacular fielder, and the sample is still small, but they certainly don't show that he sucks. I'm not saying that he doesn't suck; just saying that these metrics do not show that he does. (Unless I am badly misinterpreting them, which is totally possible because I haven't read much about the metrics themselves beyond the definitions.)
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