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Hank Chinaski

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Everything posted by Hank Chinaski

  1. Except with Yordan hitting off the tee.
  2. Nah, we just need to adjust our expectations and accept that he’s just not a 40 HR guy. I expect him to be more like 2017 Bregman than 2019 Bregman. He will finish the year in the neighborhood of .265/.375/.475 with 20-25 HR. I think that’s more or less who he is, and that is really good.
  3. Yeah I’ve wondered if he’s the type of hitter who may be more impacted than others by a ball that doesn’t carry as well…even when hitting 40 HR, he wasn’t a guy with elite exit velo or hard hit rates. In 2019, he was 53rd percentile in EV, 42nd percentile in hard hit%. He isn’t Yordan, who hits the absolute shit out of the ball at an extraordinary rate, he never was; he was a guy whose “game power” seemed to exceed his “raw power.” So my guess is that some of those fly balls that are dying at the track may have been HRs the last few seasons, with the livelier ball. That may call for an adjustment in his approach.
  4. I have to think he’s been mostly just unlucky so far. Very low BABIP, Statcast numbers aren’t bad, etc. Regression seems to be in effect right now. And he hasn’t lost his elite plate discipline, which makes his offensive floor very high (I think we were seeing it a couple of weeks ago). Also Rocky 3 might be my favorite move ever, so repped for that.
  5. He’s already there; 129 wRC+ through last night’s game. For his career, he’s 40% better…he may be headed for that, still has a .251 BABIP. (But yeah, I’d take 30% better too.) Lost in the angst over Bregman’s first half - he’s at 2.1 fWAR through 71 games. So even if he just duplicates his year to date numbers, he’s a 4-win player this year. There are usually about 40 4-win position players in all of MLB each year.
  6. On the open market, maybe. But the Astros had leverage via a few more team control years.
  7. Good god, how small must your world be to actually believe any of this drivel?
  8. I like Yordan hitting 3rd.
  9. Yuli last year: yuli this year:
  10. Well yeah, it’s an incredible stretch in the first place, and by saying it out loud, this guy drew attention to just how little they have to be proud of. Sometimes it’s best to just shut the fuck up.
  11. I mean…I guess in the pre-BCS era, there wasn’t a “national title game” and it is sorta conceivable that they potentially were playing for a share of a national title. However, it is almost certain that the Miami-Alabama winner was going to be the unanimous #1. But yeah, since that season culminated with a 28-3 ass kicking at the hands of Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl, it probably would have been best for this guy to just remain silent. Unfortunately that is just not something aggies do well.
  12. Bregman OPS has gone from .694 to .767 in last 7 games. And his expected wOBA is still 26 points higher than his actual.
  13. Haha this made me think immediately of this:
  14. Me, every time I’m reminded of that goddamned ‘92 trade:
  15. Meh. It’s June and the Astros have a 9.5 game lead in their division. Bregman’s starting to hit. Alvarez is dominant. They had a bad inning in the middle of the season.
  16. Yeah it’s based on probabilities, and the probabilities of scoring are reduced tremendously when you add outs (even when advancing runners). Doesn’t mean it is never the right call, but there’s a reason it is almost never done in MLB anymore.
  17. Oh yeah, agreed…it is unlikely. The 2001 Mariners team that won 116 games sort of had a similar run that lasted the whole season.
  18. They’re also 16-6 in 1-run games. Those tend to even out (though not always; seems like the Rangers had an extraordinarily good record in 1-run games one year…maybe 2015 or 2016?). Then again, their Pythagorean expected win total is just about where they actually are, so it’s not like you can attribute their performance to date to luck.
  19. .438/.571/.813, 2 HR in last 5 games (before tonight). Season OPS has gone from .694 to .743 in a week.
  20. Haha 2-time Heisman finalist and 1st team all American QB who went 25-2 in 08-09 in games he started (25-1 in games he actually participated in for more than a quarter goddamnit). What a shame that would be.
  21. I mean, they probably were.
  22. As long as the top 5 includes Altuve, Brantley, Bregman, Alvarez and Tucker, I don’t actually care that much about the order. But I also think that Bregman will come out of his funk any time now.
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