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DDD Dad

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by DDD Dad

  1. On 3/27/2024 at 8:59 AM, The Dog said:

    Huntsville is also home to a lot of DoD and NASA contractors - not exactly a bastion of hillbillies. These are the kind of voters who reliably voted GOP for decades that Trump has lost. 

    I looked at Sabato's feed and he's been calling bullshit on the polls for a while. He's pretty much the gold standard when it comes to this stuff.

    Nothing is guaranteed ever but at this point is hard to ignore the canaries in the mines are screaming.

    csb Sabato was my first year government professor (I know, I've said this before)

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  2. Took my youngest out to Bear Creek by DFW airport on Saturday while he was up here for Easter.

    My how that place has slipped.  When I was in law school it was probably the nicest golf resort in the Metroplex.  They're still proud as hell of it though ($90 green fee).

  3. 8 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

    So I say, again, if the criminal trial is not enough to defeat Trump in an election, then we had a nice run and we do not deserve nice things like a democracy.

    c1d36843d7071047116a6890b390c4d7cee6212e

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  4. 4 hours ago, C-Man said:

    Nicklaus's politics absolutely suck -- fuck that guy.

     

    3 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:


    all of this

    I always thought he was a douche, i was right all along 

     

    3 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

    He's an 84 year old white guy from Ohio who played golf back when it was pretty much lilly white except for Lee and a few others.  What the hell did you guys expect?

     

  5. 1 hour ago, DDD Dad said:

    Are we Yanks calling soccer fields pitches now?

    No doubt your kids were wearing nice kits whilst at their football matches.

     

    29 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

    Wanker.

     

    14 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    Given the fact that at least half of Austin's premier soccer clubs are coached by Euros and South Americans . . . yes?

     

    6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    I’ve run into women who say “how about you just chuck it in me dumpa” and I still don’t understand this slang these non-Americans are bringing In.

    Paging @Ghost of LL for further Anglophilia.

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  6. 34 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

    Trump - “I hope I get convicted because it will make me more popular than ever”

     

    yes, he really just said that

    Ballgame.

  7. 19 hours ago, Anastasis said:

    Not unless he was on the sidelines of various central and eastern texas soccer pitches. 

    Are we Yanks calling soccer fields pitches now?

    No doubt your kids were wearing nice kits whilst at their football matches.

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  8. Hopefully starting this tonight (we started Loudermilk recently so it's up to SWMBO).  Paste Magazine doesn't seem to like it.  I'll go with Surly.  I stopped reading before it got to any spoilers. 

     

    https://www.pastemagazine.com/tv/netflix/3-body-problem-budget-ending-explained-spoilers-game-of-thrones-industry-problems?mc_cid=4266e7252d&mc_eid=8285ccb0ff&utm_source=PMNTNL&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=240325

     

  9. On 3/21/2024 at 10:40 AM, SydneyCarton said:

    He is so fucking stupid. He's literally said before, that declaring bankruptcy is smart. And he wasn't wrong. He's literally used the defense before of his bankruptcies being smart. He could do it again now, and point out it was necessary becuase of the "political witch-hunt" and blah blah blah, and all his voters would believe him. They'd sympathize with him. Fuck, they'd love him more. But he won't do it because of his fucking ego. 

    It's not entirely clear whether the judgment currently at issue would be subject to a discharge in bankruptcy (because it is for fraud).  Also, I am not a bankruptcy lawyer.

  10. 14 minutes ago, bolverk said:

    A statistician said that Hamas death toll figures couldn't possibly be real because the daily variation of the deaths should be more randomly distributed. 

    Both Anastasis and I have pointed out that this statistician's analysis (published a week ago) cherrypicked a ten-day period from the end of October where the daily numbers appear fairly constant. Still, the guy's analysis completely ignored all data before the ten-day snapshot and every day since. Those other, longer periods indeed show fluctuations in daily deaths.

    So, the argument is that this statistician is purposefully misrepresenting the numbers to make a case that Hamas is releasing bullshit death counts, thereby minimizing Palestinian fatalities.

    All the data are out there and available to be analyzed. The analysis is recent, so no one knows why he's only using a tiny dataset to make a much larger argument. His statistical analysis is not all that sophisticated, so it wasn't like he was running numbers through a Supercomputer or anything. Also, the graphical representation that he chose to display his analysis was purposely selected to make it look like a straight data line when there should be fluctuations.

    Also, this particular statistician is a Professor of Statistics at the Wharton School of Business and should, therefore, know better than to publish this shit. I only took two semesters 25 years ago and could spot right away what he was doing, and I said so a few pages back when it was first brought up.

    Statsman decided to bring it up again by saying that no one can criticize the guy without saying he's a conservative Jew, which is a lie because I said everything above in a previous post. But, as often happens, Statsman ignores, doesn't fully read, or can't retain information from other people's posts.

    So, Anastasis came back to respond in a much more detailed way than I originally did by taking a deeper dive into the actual data. He came to the same conclusion but with more numbers.

    In my previous post, I did also point out that this particular statistician was also recently called out for using bullshit stats in a wholly separate legal case that his side lost when they were trying to disprove increasingly warm temperatures related to climate change). I also pointed out that the publication in which the guy's article appeared had caused some waves within the Jewish community for some of its political stances, so I called into question why someone would choose to post an article using dubious statistics (one would think a poster named "Statsman" would've recognized the data flaws) from a politically biased publication in the Daily Texan "news" subforum.

    That's all I can tell you for now, counselor.

     

     

     

    Thank you. 

    Now explain it to me like I’m Brisket. 
     

     

     

     

    I kid, I kid. 
     

     

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  11. 20 hours ago, Anastasis said:

    Yes, even in the cherry-picked data, I think the argument would be that they are over-dispersed for a poisson distribution. The actual distribution is probably far more complex, for many of the reasons that @Laxtonto alludes to. These are very complex things to model. 

    But that gives Wyner far too easy of a pass.  From his write up:

    This regularity is almost surely not real. One would expect quite a bit of variation day to day. In fact, the daily reported casualty count over this period averages 270 plus or minus about 15%. This is strikingly little variation. There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less.

    This is EXACTLY what you see if you only look only two or three days before the timeframe he selected, and in fact occurs on numerous other days both before and after. So a few explanations to things here. Either 1) Wyner did like absolutely no vetting of the available data on the subject (basic incompetence); 2) was unable to appreciate the implications of the time frame he selected from the dataset(basic statistical incompetence); 3) did not understand how to analyze the data (maybe more advanced statistical incompetence); or 4) there was purposive selection and a kicker of insulting the intelligence of his readership (malign intent and hubris). Maybe some combination of above. 

    WRT to the daily breakdown by age/sex, there is lag and adjudication obvious in the raw data. I don't think that there is anything wrong with reporting the breakdowns as available and further updating as they are adjudicated. The problem is when someone that is either incompetent or has malign intent (or both!) tries to torture those data using a faulty analytical framework to generate talking points, and then those talking points are circulated by groups such as AIPAC and others to influence American perception and foreign policy. 

    Explain this to me like I'm a lawyer.

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  12. 6 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

    img_1_1710848167231.thumb.jpg.3b27c9d97c182903b6c224fb1d9fc132.jpg

    To be accurate, this quote is from the Obama-McCain election season.  But it still fits.

    39 minutes ago, bolverk said:

    That's one of the things they discuss. The Trump campaign's "bet" is that if Trump performs well, then that success will all trickle down ballot. Coattails, if you will. Personally, I don't buy it.

    Trickle Down Elections!!!

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  13. 3 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

    Oh and Kate does actually have a body double for stuff. Not sure what but she has one. Her body double’s name is Heidi (I hate that I know this shit.) wonder if that was Heidi walking in the video? It doesn’t matter. Basically, none of you will think anything other than threesome or a sandwich. You people are sick! 

     

    Body double Heidi is in blue. Kate is in yellow. 

    IMG_9935.jpeg

    Obligatory 

    1,2

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  14. 18 hours ago, Longhorn94 said:

    I think bozo's list of best presidents in the last 50 years might be the worst I have ever seen from an otherwise rational and reasonable person.

    It’s not like he posted a pic of a deconstructed burger though. 

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  15. 4 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

     

    She definitely does not seem to be the sharpest knife in the drawer and/or easily distracted by unimportant aspects.
     

    tumblr_n8d4gul00E1rvhqlvo1_400.gif

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