There’s a metric regarding non-champs that you all are forgetting - having a reg season win over the champ - applies to Wash/Oregon but only them. 
 
	And no one is projecting Wash to make it if they lose.
 
	Georgia is the only potential CCG loser with a shot at making the top 4 and that’s because they are currently #1 - if they were 2 or lower the odds would increase for them to miss out - but they are currently #1 so they have a shot.
 
	No one else has a shot as a non-champ - tOSU, sorry you’re out - you have zero path.
 
	other CCG participants, doesn’t matter if your lone loss is in the CCG - lose and you’re out. 
 
	Except UGA, and we’ve already discussed them.
 
	So, conference champs.
 
	I think Bama is in with a win.
 
	and if Wash, Mich, and FSU all win - they’re in and Texas and UGA are out.
 
	If two of those 3 lose, UT and UGA are both in.
 
	But if just one of those 3 falls, then obviously a 1 spot opens up and I can see a scenario where UT’s loss to OU weighs more than their win over Bama and over #1 Georgia’s lone loss being to the conf champ Bama. UGA in, Horns out.
 
	So, Texas best shot? Go Cardinals
 
	Equally good for Texas but less likely to happen - Go Haweyes
 
	An Oregon win? I agree that Texas chances here are massive with a win over SEC champ but I don’t trust the committee to again rank that win over the negative loss to OU vs the Duck’s loss to Udub.