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atomheartbevo

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by atomheartbevo

  1. 2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

    It may be rational for Russia to believe that if it wants to retake the Baltics, 2026 is going to be its last chance.  After that, Europe's rearmament may make that impossible.

    I get the parallels with WWI, but the problem for Putin is that he's running out of manpower fast - put aside that the soldiers we've seen in Ukraine seem to be getting nothing for body armor and helmets (other than what they can strip off of the dead) or it's inconsistent and that they are getting little training. As the video I posted above mentioned, he's reached the limit on paying civilians to voluntarily join up. The regional governments can't afford it, and a lot of outlying areas are pretty tapped out anyways.

    When that draft notice came out last week about calling up reservists, I think there was a very good reason they mentioned calling up reservists to join the National Guard - that organization exists to protect the government itself.  It's not a part-time gig or anything, it's literally the guys who would be putting down demonstrations.

    He is going to have to mobilize young men in Moscow and St. Petersburg at some point, and that is not going to go over well.

    The population as a whole already knows that Ukraine was too much - we are about to hit the 4th year after the 3-day excursion to Kyiv and the people of Moscow have heard air raid sirens and outlying suburbs have lost power and heard the explosions.  Going after NATO countries would be far worse.

  2. 2 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

     2026 is going to be interesting 

    Very interesting, especially among the younger Republicans (in their 50s and under) who still plan on a career in politics past Trump - they don't want to be tainted, and when you look at the shit-storm that has been brewing, they have to be nervous - when districts start flipping, it's not a given they can be easily flipped back (and 2026 means just 4 years until redistricting). Hell, Trump is willing to let tens of millions of Americans watch their healthcare costs soar within the next two months, which is going to piss people off and get them out next November, and he still can't figure out what to do with the economy, other than offer bailouts from the tariff problem he created.

    And then there is 2028. It's pretty much a given the GOP will lose big next November, and you don't want to be the Presidential candidate in 2028 because you will lose and when you lose, you're out.  You can be war heroes like Bob Dobbs Dole or John McCain and it won't matter. You pick a bad year to run, that's your only chance.

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  3. 2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

    I guess the fate of our republic depends on how quickly or slowly these idiots maneuver themselves into a circular firing squad and start shooting?

    The more they attack each other, and I have a feeling we are in the very early stages of their little civil war, the less time they have stirring up the masses for Trump.

    1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

    And we are somehow all in the middle. 

    Pedro Pascal Laughing GIF by Crafture

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  4. They are our fucking enemies.

    https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/united-states-vs-dubranova-indictment-one.pdf?ref=breached.company

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/crime/general/us-slaps-new-charges-on-ukrainian-over-russian-cyberattacks/ar-AA1S3cpW?ocid=BingNewsSerp

    Quote

    The US Department of Justice unveiled additional charges against a Ukrainian woman accused of supporting Russian state-backed cyberattacks against critical infrastructure.

    Victoria Eduardovna Dubranova, 33, was indicted over her alleged links to a Moscow-sponsored group, the DOJ said in statement on Tuesday. Dubranova was extradited to the US earlier this year over her alleged support for another Russian group. She has pleaded not guilty in both cases.

    Quote

    “Today’s actions demonstrate the department’s commitment to disrupting malicious Russian cyber activity — whether conducted directly by state actors or their criminal proxies — aimed at furthering Russia’s geopolitical interests,” US Assistant Attorney General for National Security John Eisenberg said in the statement.

    Both groups Dubranova is accused of working with, CyberArmyofRussia_Reborn (CARR) and NoName057(16), have strong links to the Russian government, according to the DOJ. 

    Quote

    CARR was founded, funded, and directed by the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, known as GRU, according to the Justice Department. The group claimed credit for hundreds of cyberattacks worldwide, including attacks against critical infrastructure in the US.

    “The GRU is increasingly leaning into willing accomplices to hide their own hand in destabilizing physical and cyber attacks in Europe and the US,” said John Hultquist, chief analyst at Google’s Threat Intelligence Group.

    Quote

    Bloomberg News has reported on various attacks on US water systems including in Muleshoe, Texas, for which CARR posted a video apparently showing hackers manipulating its industrial control system.

    Muleshoe gets a shout-out: Tiny Texas City Repels Russia-Tied Hackers Eyeing Water System - Bloomberg

    Quote

    Small utilities across the US have long relied on “security by obscurity” but this approach no longer works because of how easy it is for hackers to scan the entire internet for vulnerable devices, Leatherman told reporters on Wednesday. 

    Quote

    The DOJ said CARR also attacked a meat processing facility in Los Angeles as well as US election infrastructure and the websites of US nuclear regulatory entities. 

    NoName, it alleged, is a state-sanctioned project established by a Russian presidential order in 2018, and has claimed credit for hundreds of cyberattacks and primarily conducted DDoS cyberattacks. Its victims include government agencies, financial institutions, and critical infrastructure, such as public railways and ports, the US agency said.

    More, if you care to read the case

    The U.S. has unsealed a California grand jury indictment exposing how Russian GRU hackers targeted critical infrastructure in the U.S. They hit a regional airport in Missouri, drinking water and water storage facilities in Texas, Pennsylvania and Indiana, and a meat packing facility in California. One cyber attack caused 200,000 gallons of water to overflow in Texas. Another caused 2,000 pounds of meat to spoil.

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  5. 2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

    Well, I mean, yeah.  But you and I both know that Hispanics are not at all a monolithic group.  And between South Florida and South Texas, it's a pretty huge variation.

    2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

    For sure.  But Cubans are only 25% of Hispanic population in Florida.  You are absolutely correct that they are far more hardwired to always vote GOP.

    If ICE is truly going to make a huge push in South Texas, things could get very interesting.

     

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  6. Watching them go after Indiana Republicans, with all kinds of statements about Mike Pence's brother driving it as revenge against Trump, that the Indiana Republicans who voted against redistricting are as bad as the guy who killed Charlie Kirk, etc.

    They are really mad right now.  Really mad.  And spinning lots of conspiracy theories.  And planning to primary every Indiana Republican who so much as even considered voting against redistricting.

    Anticipation Popcorn GIF

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  7. 1 hour ago, Chad Fuck said:

    Just remember, it always gets worse with tfg.  

    Though I'm not sure why he'd want to replace her?  She's doing exactly what Stephen Miller wants - terrorizing the populous - most especially people of color and those aligned against the admin.  

    She's looking very weak and the Democrats are absolutely clowning her - producing combat veterans that were deported or had a spouse deported, or immigrants who raised 3 United States Marines, and she's just sitting there with a deer-in-headlines look, at least as much as her botox allows, trying to stammer out answers and do what the Democrats want.

    She'll be gone within a month.

    Trump wants somebody who can terrorize immigrants and not look so weak in front of the cameras.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  8. 5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

    OK, so lie, get called out, not like the questions, and leave a Congressional Testimony? Yeah that is normal for an acting Secretary of any US Department or Agency. 

    So she got clowned on multiple times by the Democrats who had combat veterans either there or on Zoom. Just absolutely clowned on, and made to look extremely weak.

    She's going to be out of there soon.

    At least with Whiskey Pete's fuckups, he's distracting from the Epstein Files.  

    She's straight up looking incompetent and weak in front of the Democrats.  Trump does not like that.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  9. Meanwhile, somebody is looking to pull a Nicolae Ceaușescu

    Bloomberg reports Viktor Orbán is preparing for life after the April 2026 election by planning a power grab through the presidency. Facing a real challenge from Peter Magyar’s Tisza party, Orbán is exploring how to rewrite laws to turn Hungary’s ceremonial presidential role into the most powerful office in the country. Fidesz has already passed a law making it harder to remove the president, and insiders say Orbán is considering using his supermajority to push through constitutional changes before the vote. It would allow him to stay in charge, even if Fidesz loses. The playbook resembles moves seen in Turkey and Russia.

     

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  10. 2 hours ago, ztejas said:

    I feel like a lot of you think that LOTR follows the books much more closely than it does.

    It's probably the greatest adaptation of all time but there are pretty major differences between the book and the movies. 

    Of Course Yes GIF by PragerU

    I don't think you could have done a better job of fitting the books into  3-3.5 hour movies, and sacrifices had to be made. And I'm cool with additions like the aforementioned scene with Aragorn.

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