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atomheartbevo

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by atomheartbevo

  1. 7 minutes ago, Captainant said:

    it's almost like he just agrees with whoever he talked to last or something. I'd bet there would be ample reporting if that were the case

    There's a joke that has went around for quite a while that the most powerful person in the world is whoever Trump last talked to.

  2. ·

    Edited by atomheartbevo

    It appears that Witkoff and Kushner will not travel to Kyiv in person for the NSA-level meeting on January 3 and will instead join online.

    This is something Ukraine had strongly hoped for—among many reasons, because it would increase the chances that there would be no shelling that day.

    Russia, for its part, did everything it could to prevent this kind of visit from happening. Earlier, after negotiations in Moscow, Ushakov explicitly said, “The Americans promised us they would not come to Kyiv and will go back home directly.”

    “On January 3, national security advisers will meet in Ukraine. This will be the first peace meeting of this kind held in Ukraine. European representatives will attend, and an American team will join online. Fifteen countries are confirmed, along with EU and NATO representatives.

    On January 5, military leaders will meet—the Chiefs of General Staff will gather. The main focus will be security guarantees for Ukraine. Politically, almost everything is ready, and now it’s crucial to work through every detail: how the guarantees will function in the air, on land, and at sea—and whether we can end the war, which is the key goal for all reasonable people.

    On January 6, there will be a meeting of European leaders and coalition partners. We are preparing now to ensure the meeting is productive,”

    President Zelenskyy said on January 1, 2026.

  3. ABC News
    No image preview

    White House delays new tariffs on furniture, kitchen cabi...

    In the latest reversal of his signature economic policy, President Trump is rolling back tariffs on furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities.
  4. @PTINS @Gatorubet and others, you might find this interesting.

    For nearly four years, many have been saying that Russia’s economy is about to collapse under the pressure of Western sanctions and the war. Yet it has continued to function.

    Aleksandr Kolyandr, a research fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, notes that economic growth fueled by massive spending on the defense sector has virtually come to a halt.

    Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) is now publishing figures that are far from reassuring for the Kremlin.

    In November, industrial output turned negative. Across the economy as a whole, production fell by 0.7% year on year, while manufacturing - for the first time since February 2023 - slipped into contraction, down 1%. Adjusted for seasonal factors, output shrank by 2.5% month on month, pointing not to a one-off disruption but to the start of a sustained cooling.

    Formally, industrial production for January-November still shows resilience, posting growth of 0.8%. But this growth is driven by a narrow set of sectors and increasingly fails to reflect the economy’s real condition.

    ▪️ Civilian industries slide into recession

    A 0.7% increase in mining output masks a deep downturn outside the raw materials sector. For the first time in 15 years, food production declined, with the drop accelerating from 0.2% in October to 0.8% in November. Wood processing fell sharply (-9.1%), as did the chemical industry (-1.7%), furniture manufacturing (-7.5%), and clothing production (-2.4%).

    In machinery and equipment, the situation is close to collapse. Output of tractors plunged by 61.6%, bulldozers by 53.7%, elevators by 37.2%, and passenger railcars by half. The automotive industry has reverted to its worst levels of 2022, recording a 34.1% decline.

    According to estimates by experts at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, civilian industries have cut output by nearly 5% since the start of the year, while virtually all the growth reported by Rosstat has come from the military-industrial complex and mining.

    ▪️ Guns or butter?

    Even the defense sector, which has been operating in an overheated mode, is beginning to lose momentum. Output of "fabricated metal products" - the category Rosstat uses to classify military goods - fell by 1.6% in November. A year earlier, this segment had been growing by more than 30%. Production of "other transport equipment," including tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, slowed from 41% growth in October to just 6.4%.

    Elina Ribakova, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, notes that for the first time since the war began, the Kremlin is facing a real choice between "guns and butter." The economy is no longer capable of sustaining growth in both the defense sector and the civilian economy at the same time.

    ▪️ Not a temporary downturn

    Olga Belenkaya, an economist at the investment company Finam, links the slowdown to tight monetary policy, labor shortages, declining exports, and a strong ruble.

    In an article for The Spectator, Aleksandr Kolyandr emphasizes that the current stagnation is structural rather than cyclical. In his words, oil revenues in recent years have been directed not toward investment and productivity growth, but toward missiles and tanks that will be burned in Ukraine.

    This has created a two-tier economy: the defense sector and "everything else," where civilian industry is being squeezed by high interest rates and rising costs.

    ▪️ Darker clouds ahead?

    The Russian government has already cut its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1%. The World Bank expects at least three years of stagnation for Russia, while economists Aleksashenko, Inozemtsev, and Nekrasov predict stagnation lasting until the mid-2030s.

    Janis Kluge, an economist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, notes that most of the factors that supported the economy in the first years of the war - high commodity prices and a consumer boom - have already disappeared.

    As a result, Russia is now in its weakest economic position since the start of the war.

    Russia’s economy is entering a phase in which the old growth model no longer works, and compensating for this through military orders is becoming increasingly difficult.

    📷: Russia PMI Manufacturing, monthly dynamics and quarter averages/ Yevgeny Istrebin

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  5. 2 minutes ago, Vanilla Strange Gato said:

    There used to be a gal that sat in the flashcard section at DKR that would have been one of these girls if she had seen this sort of inspiration. This was late 80’s.

    She wore a big baseball cap that had fuzzy longhorns coming out of it, and she wore really big and gaudy longhorn jewelry, kind of like the big wooden block necklace stuff and vest that elementary school teachers sometimes wear.

    Fast forward to late 1996, I’m in a Randall’s in Spring and run into her shopping and shouting to everyone “we beat Nebraska’s ass!!!”

    She was wearing the same outfit she wore years earlier in the flashcard section.

    I’m pretty sure she was there to buy food for her 50 cats.

    consent GIF

  6. Tendar doing amazing stuff. Russia gained less than 1% of Ukrainian territory last year for a whole shitload of dead and wounded that they are struggling to replace. Somebody said that to gain a similar amount over the next year, they will have to start nabbing dudes off the streets of Moscow in broad daylight.


    I compiled my data relating to the frontline movements in the year 2025.

    - Russians gained around 4,075 square kilometer (1,573 square miles) over this period of time. This is around 0.67% of Ukraine's total size.

    - Ukraine holds 79.4% of its territory.

    - The Russian occupation holds around 19.4% of Ukrainian territory.

    - Around 1.2% are grey zone / not clearly under control by either side.

    - The major movements happened in the Donetsk region, which is currently Russia's primary target, but overall the Russian advances are distributed to 6 different Ukrainian regions. I have added my map to break it down more in detail.

    G9mdZNYWAAAFRf9?format=jpg&name=medium

  7. Two more MIM-104 Patriot fire units have been delivered to Ukraine. This has been reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. The air defense systems were supplied from stockpiles of the German army and partially financed by Norway, Lithuania and Denmark. The systems were pledged in August 2025.

  8. 1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

    Inshallah the mullahs get the Ceausescu treatment in 2026. What a beautiful country and brilliant civilization that deserves so much better. Would also completely upend militant Islamism, which is running out of steam worldwide anyway.

    I think they get flown out, between this and Russia starting to truly feel the effects of Ukraine, it could be a much better start to the year than we had a year ago.

  9. May not be two weeks, security forces were not able to get a lot of protestors dispersed last night, and full-blown nation-wide protests are being called for tomorrow.,

    Here’s hoping the US and Israel don’t actually bomb them again, and let this play out.

  10. 5 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

    Happy New Year, Surly bastards.

    I'm gonna start negging all non-ironic AI slop posted on this website. We can't stop this AI bullshit in society, but we can at least make a difference here. Join me.

    we need Trump to see this AI-generated stuff and it’ll get regulated really fucking fast.

    image.jpeg

  11. Finland's authorities seized control of a vessel suspected of damaging a data cable between Helsinki and Tallinn - Yle. The data cable was damaged today, and the anchor chain of the vessel was hanging in the water. The vessel, Fitburg, was going from St Petersburg, Russia to Haifa, Israel. It is flagged in St Vincent and the Grenadines. Fitburg is not on any official sanctions lists but has been highlighted as a vessel of interest by a sanctions monitoring platform. Fitburg was intercepted in Finland's exclusive economic zone, and the cable damage took place in Estonia's economic zone. 14 crew members were detained.

    Several days ago, information appeared that Denys Kapustin, commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps, has been killed defending Ukraine. Turns out, Denys Kapustin is alive and well! Ukrainian Defense Intelligence has performed a complex special operation to save the life of Denys Kapustin, and reveal those who ordered his killing. The operation lasted over a month. Russia has paid half a million dollars to kill Denys Kapustin. This money is now at the disposal of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence and will be used to enhance the units.

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