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Posts posted by ShaggyBevo RIP
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The question to me is is RU testing NATO resolve or trying to provoke NATO direct involvement as selling the home crowd RU was defeated by NATO/the decadent west is easier than explaining how UKR defeated RU.
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Funny to see all the bots suddenly posting in this thread peddling RU deniability. Weird that TWO missiles had the same issue
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Yeah but fighting in a city like Mariupol is going to cost a fuck ton of Ukrainians. Possibly more than they can afford to spend to take Mariupol.
Mariupol is more of a pile of rubble than a city at this point.- 1
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Yeah the OSINT guys have been hinting that this might be the play. Ukraine always seems to come up with a big surprise.
That said, I think Mariupol is next. It's the big supply hub for everything west of it and if they cut that off everything falls apart from Mariupol to Crimea. So that gets them Crimea without actually doing a frontal assault.
You don’t have take Mariupol just cut the supply lines from there. If RU can’t keep Crimea is there any purpose to having Mariupol if UKR isn’t going to allow shipping in and out?
What troops are in Crimea? Aren’t the RU forces mostly in Donbas regions and Zaporizhzhia?- 1
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At this point I don’t put anything past the Ukrainians. But straight to Crimea means a really long supply route over water. They’re either crossing the river or the Black Sea to support their troops. That’s a big deal.
Keep in mind Russia’s defense is set for traditional warfare lines of contact.
Then if the reports of UKR taking places on the left bank are true those lines aren’t so long and comparatively with no Kerch bridge RU’s are likely longer.- 3
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I think UKR is going to bypass all the RU entrenchments and traditional strategy and go straight for Crimea. That cuts off the head/Putin and they can clean up the rest later.
Putin’s power/regime is built on wars rebuilding the USSR empire and wouldn’t survive losing Crimea which is his biggest accomplishment.- 4
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That's what I've been saying since it was first reported yesterday. I would guess though that they don't have heavy much artillery over the water, but they probably don't need it so much as the artillery can reach from Kherson, anyway.
They don’t need HIMARS support regular artillery can do it from the right bank. -
It’s not Crimea, it is Kherson Oblast. Not sure about how it plays militarily, but is good PR as they are technically on the West Bank of the Dnipro.
It is actually Mykolaiv Oblast and M777s can provide artillery support from across water.
Wonder if they ate trying to lure RU navy out for another attack on it.- 2
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Elsewhere it was asked just how many ruzzians drowned today? -
Been super busy the last two days.
Reading between the lines Is RU actually having D-Day level losses while trying to retreat over the Dnipro?- 1
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3 hours ago, Ghost of Shag said:
I think aggy beats auburn.
Auburn doesn’t do anything well and I think Weigman is legit.
aggy is terrible on the road and against the run. AU should give Bigsby 25+ carries.
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It's A&M. They'll probably just pull a Tech, fire him, not pay him, and rely on their immunity and the statutory caps to protect them.
Tech may be able to do that as they are a coaching stepping stone. No coach of the caliber aggy wants to hire would touch the job if aggy did that. -
Any ship getting out into the open sea now has to be worried about those sea drones that Ukraine is running. H I Sutton was talking about how maneuverable and fast they are on I think his website or another he writes for. Low profile as well, so hard to pick up.
makes me wonder if they could clog up or bottleneck the harbor with some sunk ships as well.
Staying stationary in a harbor is worse than under sail in open waters which is why I’m asking if they can’t sail away.- 1
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From the Julia Davis video posted earlier, this guy is going to get tossed
I thought the more interesting thing was introducing the narrative of they are former Soviets used to the same hardships that we are.- 2
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A few months ago. Zelenskyy said Ukraine had 100-200 KIA per day. Hopefully the rate is lower now, but let’s not forget that everyday this war goes on, more and more Ukrainians are dying as well.
What he actually said was some days we have 100-200 KIA per day. No numbers to that degree have been reported since they got triple 7s and HIMARS.- 1
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Novorossiysk looks like the only other port they have in the area. Sochi looks like a tiny port that can't handle bigger ships.
As a former nuke guy, does the lack of any indication of RU ships booking it out of Sevastopol mean they can’t?
Apparently, today’s particular combined asset attack was the first of it’s kind against naval ships at harbor. -
Reading all the chaotic early reports, I’m wondering if it was multifaceted; missiles, air drones, and water drones.
Latest speculation is fixed wing aircraft firing HARMS added a fourth element to the attack.- 2
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Awesome news about the attacks on the ships in Sevastopol. I love that this nation without any functioning navy has been able to fuck up so much of the Russian fleet. Does Ukraine have any capability to sink subs? If they can advance into Crimea starting next spring, kick them fully out of Sevastopol, and force them into Novorossiyka, could they eventually target the 6 subs still active in the Black Sea? If Ukraine can secure Kerch then they should be in HIMARS range with Novorossiyka. Does Russia have any other military capable ports in the Black Sea? Would love to degrade as much Russian naval capability as possible.
The project 636 subs I believe were priced at 350M each. The project 11356R frigate that was just hit was priced between 450-500M. All of this was priced pre-sanctions. Reconstituting any naval forces is going to be a magnitude more difficult under their current conditions. So anytime I hear one of these ships get scuttled I feel like it's a 90 yard pick-six return for a TD.
The satellite shots from the day before the attack show subs docked in Sevastopol.
RU knows UKR has hit Sevastopol before. Going into Sevastopol suggests RU is running out of naval munitions elsewhere and the ones stockpiled in Sevastopol can’t be shipped over the Kerch bridge to safer harbors to take that risk.- 1
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Reports of another round of strikes on Sevastopol.
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UKR trolling 3 kaliber missile ships hit.
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What am I looking at here? Are these the maritime drones we saw a few pages back? Are they suicide drones, blowing up ships in the harbor/near the harbor? Are they just reconnaissance drones? Looked like they ran the first one right into the side of the ship.
Reading all the chaotic early reports, I’m wondering if it was multifaceted; missiles, air drones, and water drones. -
Also rumors subs being resupplied got hit too.- 6
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Black Sea Fleet go fuck yourself.
Have to think RU has run low on naval munitions and Kerch bridge is such they can’t ship them out of Sevastopol to risk going to Sevastopol to re-arm when UKR has shown the ability to hit the area.
Assumed it would have already been posted.- 4
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Black Sea Fleet go fuck yourself.
Have to think RU has run low on naval munitions and Kerch bridge is such they can’t ship them out of Sevastopol to risk going to Sevastopol to re-arm when UKR has shown the ability to hit the area.- 2
Русский корабль - иди нахуй
in Daily Texan
Posted
Don’t worry they are just asking questions.