Jump to content

ShaggyBevo RIP

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    3760
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by ShaggyBevo RIP

  1. Yeah the OSINT guys have been hinting that this might be the play. Ukraine always seems to come up with a big surprise.
    That said, I think Mariupol is next. It's the big supply hub for everything west of it and if they cut that off everything falls apart from Mariupol to Crimea. So that gets them Crimea without actually doing a frontal assault. 

    You don’t have take Mariupol just cut the supply lines from there. If RU can’t keep Crimea is there any purpose to having Mariupol if UKR isn’t going to allow shipping in and out?

    What troops are in Crimea? Aren’t the RU forces mostly in Donbas regions and Zaporizhzhia?
    • Hook 'Em 1

  2. At this point I don’t put anything past the Ukrainians. But straight to Crimea means a really long supply route over water. They’re either crossing the river or the Black Sea to support their troops. That’s a big deal.

    Keep in mind Russia’s defense is set for traditional warfare lines of contact.

    Then if the reports of UKR taking places on the left bank are true those lines aren’t so long and comparatively with no Kerch bridge RU’s are likely longer.
    • Hook 'Em 3
    • Like 1
  3. It's A&M.  They'll probably just pull a Tech, fire him, not pay him, and rely on their immunity and the statutory caps to protect them.  

    Tech may be able to do that as they are a coaching stepping stone. No coach of the caliber aggy wants to hire would touch the job if aggy did that.
  4. Any ship getting out into the open sea now has to be worried about those sea drones that Ukraine is running.  H I Sutton was talking about how maneuverable and fast they are on I think his website or another he writes for.  Low profile as well, so hard to pick up.
    makes me wonder if they could clog up or bottleneck the harbor with some sunk ships as well.

    Staying stationary in a harbor is worse than under sail in open waters which is why I’m asking if they can’t sail away.
    • Hook 'Em 1
  5. A few months ago. Zelenskyy said Ukraine had 100-200 KIA per day. Hopefully the rate is lower now, but let’s not forget that everyday this war goes on, more and more Ukrainians are dying as well. 

    What he actually said was some days we have 100-200 KIA per day. No numbers to that degree have been reported since they got triple 7s and HIMARS.
    • Hook 'Em 1
  6. Novorossiysk looks like the only other port they have in the area. Sochi looks like a tiny port that can't handle bigger ships.

    As a former nuke guy, does the lack of any indication of RU ships booking it out of Sevastopol mean they can’t?
    Apparently, today’s particular combined asset attack was the first of it’s kind against naval ships at harbor.
  7. Awesome news about the attacks on the ships in Sevastopol. I love that this nation without any functioning navy has been able to fuck up so much of the Russian fleet. Does Ukraine have any capability to sink subs? If they can advance into Crimea starting next spring, kick them fully out of Sevastopol, and force them into Novorossiyka, could they eventually target the 6 subs still active in the Black Sea? If Ukraine can secure Kerch then they should be in HIMARS range with Novorossiyka. Does Russia have any other military capable ports in the Black Sea? Would love to degrade as much Russian naval capability as possible.
    The project 636 subs I believe were priced at 350M each. The project 11356R frigate that was just hit was priced between 450-500M. All of this was priced pre-sanctions. Reconstituting any naval forces is going to be a magnitude more difficult under their current conditions. So anytime I hear one of these ships get scuttled I feel like it's a 90 yard pick-six return for a TD.

    The satellite shots from the day before the attack show subs docked in Sevastopol.

    RU knows UKR has hit Sevastopol before. Going into Sevastopol suggests RU is running out of naval munitions elsewhere and the ones stockpiled in Sevastopol can’t be shipped over the Kerch bridge to safer harbors to take that risk.
    • Hook 'Em 1
  8. What am I looking at here? Are these the maritime drones we saw a few pages back? Are they suicide drones, blowing up ships in the harbor/near the harbor? Are they just reconnaissance drones? Looked like they ran the first one right into the side of the ship.  

    Reading all the chaotic early reports, I’m wondering if it was multifaceted; missiles, air drones, and water drones.
×
×
  • Create New...