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Hurtlocker

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Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. Thanks for sharing, couldn't get into that one
  2. Yeah I don't classify the late window as one of the 6 T1 slots that the mouse has. It's important, because its literally the only thing at that time, but its more T2 as it pulls numbers closer to an ESPN2 game, at best, and is mostly all centered on mountain/pacific viewers. That makes it kind of a separate deal. At the moment I don't expect to see the B12 in it often, but it may have a few BYU home games there, which may be why ESPN is less inclined to pay the Pac much. To your point, if they were to add a Colorado or Arizona, I do expect for it to be paid for with the after dark window, somewhat. With all those teams in mountain that means a 8:30pm kick off, as opposed to prime time if you're in pacific. The fact that this gets discussed as a positive for the Pac is more a negative than anything else. If all you have to offer is filling a spot that is barely watched, that's not really a crown jewel at the negotiating table. ESPN paid a lot to gobble up the top B12 games (top four, best 6 out of 8, best 8 out of 12, and best 12 out of 20) and I think that was in response to the B1G deal becoming too expensive, so I'm pretty confident they're going to find a weekly window to show case them. It wouldn't shock me if they started getting a branded segment at noon after College Gameday or afternoon to go against one of the B1G marketing windows. The SEC will own primetime, outside some FSU/Miami/Clemson/ND road games. At the end of the day, these are rough averages. I don't think it will be 3/3 each and every week. Some weeks will have a weaker schedule in one of the conferences and it will be made up by the others. No i didn't forget, but its only 6 T1 windows. If the B1G signed with the mouse, the B12 wasn't getting slotted, they only have so much room. The Big Ten owned the noon slot on ESPN for a very long time and got great ratings, then they had another ABC game, usually primetime, each week and then some others scattered around the dial. The SEC and B12 took those slots. As for Week 6, per above, not every week will be exactly 3/3 you'll see a flux. When the SEC plays all their cupcakes you'll see more B12, weeks like this you'll see more SEC its really season count we're looking at. It also will matter how everyone is doing. 16 teams with 9 conference games also means more loses. If Auburn or Aggy aren't world beaters, that game may drop. The River won't, due to rivalry game.
  3. It won't necessarily be that there are more games, its just that the ones they show will be bigger. There will be more Texas and Oklahoma on ABC/ESPN, and less South Carolina and Missouri.
  4. Yeah, the one stat mentioned that stood out to me when the B12 resigned was that schools not named Texas and Oklahoma had increased their viewership against each other by 40% since the last time to market. You're right, they're not going to have that Bama/Georgia or Ohio State/Michigan kind of draw, but they'll still pull in 4-6m for their top teams in any given year and a big CCG. Now, if they fall flat and can't produce any good teams, that will clearly change, but I'd guess someone of that group will put it together in any given year like TCU did last year.
  5. My guess is B12 gets 1 and ACC gets 2 and the SEC gets 3. The B12 will get another one with Fox. The rest fall to secondary channels.
  6. It did change, they got the top T1 game, but it has a clause in it that it isn't required to be at the 3:30 window like CBS held. They just have to provide a T1 ABC window.
  7. Yeah they'll keep pimping Big Noon big time. I thinkt hey gave the second and third picks for the afternoon and prime contracts, but its likely not every #1 at noon or CBS and NBC wouldn't have wanted to play ball.
  8. Teams that play in the eastern and central time zones
  9. I mean the SEC will have noon games on ABC, the biggest B1G games lived there for years until now and College Gameday feeds right into it. There are six T1 eastern windows on ABC/ESPN per day, noon, 3:30, and Prime. The SEC will likely have 4 while the ACC/B12 will have one each, or it will be SEC (3) and ACC/B12 (3). I would severely doubt that ESPN would pit SEC v SEC consistently at 3:30 when they could put big games back-to-back-to-back, so don't expect the 11am central to go away anytime soon.
  10. Those noon T1 slots are money makers, they're not going away with the move.
  11. When the B12 formed they were talking about going west into New Mexico, which seems silly today, but would that have worked with USC/UCLA/Arizona/ASU too?
  12. I'm actually a fan of your proposal, to a point. The upside is, as you point out, a joint media contract. The fragmentation of college football is degrading the earning potential of everyone, including the blue bloods. If 48-72 schools evaporated conferences and went to market with shared rights they'd control the narrative in a way that makes the current B1G deal look like pocket change. The problem prior to 1984 was they had all the games but didn't do anything with them. Flip that script and there are additional billions that are being left on the table. That being said, I think your proposal is too deep and relies too much on 3-4 out of conference games to generate interest. To maximize revenue, you need: brand names playing close competitive games with something on the line regional meaning That's really what brings value in a TV contract and I don't think you can do it with 72 teams on an even playing field any more because the brands don't play enough or until the end of the season. To do it you'd need to go EPL on this bitch by taking your 72 teams and breaking it into three leagues with relegation and promotion. This means the top brands will always likely be in the top bracket, making broadcasters mint weekly, R/P battles increase ratings by giving multiple things to play for, and a combined contract can fracture or mirror broadcasts so that ABC, for instance, can maximize eyeballs like they do the NFL by having a game only on TV in the area its being played, but then being streamed nationally. How that would break out with teams and geography isn't something i feel like playing with, but it would maximize revenue and keep geographic rivalries intact until such time as the team succeeded so much that they were no longer a regional brand and became a national brand.
  13. Yeah I've said it for a while now, none of this move had anything to do with money. Not that money is bad, but that's kind of like a secondary feature of this. Even in the B12, Texas was making more than SEC schools due to the LHN and LHN money going away is basically paying for a lot of Texas' check in the SEC. The broadcasting revenue will go up, but not like triple, Texas was already making $60m from the B12 and the B12 was set to get a raise this cycle too, which is why the current teams didn't decrease. On top of that, Texas Football made like $100m, more than most athletic departments, in one sport. It prints money without broadcasting. The SEC isn't making Texas rich, Texas is making Oklahoma rich. This is all about exposure. The Texas/Alabama game last year had more media exposure than every single regular season game in the entire Big 12, including the River, and it was out of conference. It got more smoke than Bama/A&M and this move puts more opportunities for events like that. Per @DFW Horn's point, which was spot on, Texas, along with Alabama and Georgia, is now front in center of ESPN's hype train in a way it never was before. Hype and exposure brings in opportunities and finances that dwarf these broadcasting rights conversations. More importantly, its what fills recruiting pipelines, which keeps the train moving. That's what this move is about.
  14. Not to speak for Trojan, but my guess would be to play Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Nebraska. I like the geographic lay out and it makes sense east of the Missouri river where things are more compact. And, outside teams like Iowa State and West Virginia, who are surrounded by teams in other conferences they could, and likely should be playing, most schools are set up that way. USC and UCLA are an outlier in this regard, but Texas is playing close geographic games. Baton Rouge is basically the same distance away as Tech, but east, where there are more people, and closer to other schools. In the distance from Texas to Morgantown is basically the entirety of the SEC. Though to an earlier point, all of this requires rivals. Iowa State is not a hated rival of Oklahoma, the Sooner's have won nearly 90% of the time. In order for that to work, you need to be competitive. The point Oklahoma was making is "it doesn't mater if we curb stomped you for 100 years, we can't fill seats curb stomping you. You failed to be relevant until recently." Granted, nothing you can do about what athletic departments did before the invention of the ipod, but it's part of the equation.
  15. Yeah the SEC has this too. To gain more money ESPN may need to outsource games to other networks. Until 2034 the mouse owns all of their rights, just like Fox does for the B1G. The only difference is the SEC is a straight rights deal, where the B1G has a 40% ownership stake in BTN. To @Trojan Man's point, you don't get all the exposure if you don't give something up.
  16. I'd argue the exposure is more important than the money for the big brands. Texas and Ohio State literally cannot spend the money they already have. Most of the financial benefits are still going to the Washington Generals. The Globetrotters, on the other hand, benefits more by being on prime time every week, that brings in recruits.
  17. Had the original B12 stuck together, it would have been on a similar ground as the SEC/B1G prior to the recent moves. And, with Colorado there, they would have been a better suitor for AZ/ASU, UCLA/USC for 16, giving them the one negative that wasn't caused by self-destructive behavior, more people in more states.
  18. Yeah perception is reality I guess. They definitely got a lot of free exposure with ESPN and massive over rankings, but outside buying classes and coaches that didn't pan out, they haven't done better, outside the first year they moved, when they likely would have played for a natty if they had been in the Big 12.
  19. Did they though? Still an 8 win team, with 4 cupcakes on the schedule.
  20. Definitely east, likely Maryland. The President of Maryland was a B1G alum, they needed money badly, there are tons of B1G grads in DC, and the DMA is worth far more than Mizzou can provide.
  21. Some, but the majority of the difference is 9 conference games vs 8.
  22. So per team breakdown (ignoring BTN buyins, LHN, and ND: B1G - $59m SEC - $50m B12 - $44m ACC - $41m PAC - $37m
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