Jump to content

Hurtlocker

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    2162
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. Also, ESPN just laid off a ton of staff, including a lot of household names. Probably for freeing up money to spend on 15 late night windows.
  2. I'm beginning to think the Pac's backout point is July 31st and that's fucking San Diego, which is today. I think they're fine though. If the MWC won't let them stay and the Pac/B12 are not interested, call the AAC. Mike will take you, Mike likes everyone.
  3. This is the part I'm most interested to see fleshed out. Historically, big brands aren't built in the regular season, they're built on championship runs. Championship runs that are, typically built on regular seasons full of cupcakes and nonbrands. Like an exhibition season to get to the finals. Brands, when losing, still draw ok, but no where near what they draw when winning. But we've made all these changes ONLY for the regular season media contracts. Way more money, but also more Ls than when it was more fractured. Also, even if you get four teams in the playoff, not everyone makes it through. Brands aren't built on almost winning. First and second round loses are no better off than a bowl game, IF you're a brand. So something is going to happen over the next 5-10 years: Either what you say is right and the brands will always be battling for supremacy and it will be an Ohio State natty one year then Bama the next then Michigan, then Texas, then USC...etc. If that happens the money will roll. Or, one or two teams make it through a gauntlet repeatedly of the backs of the other ones, who start to languish and act rashly, firing coaches, upending programs and basically spiraling their own failure. I kind of anticipate that the second will happen, because that's kind of what always happens. Someone puts it all together at once and goes on a run. Then everyone reacts to that run and some fail miserably until someone finally upends it and does their own run. It is rarely an even cage match. If the second does happen, teams that are in other conferences and put together a run will be able to build a much bigger brand. If Oregon stays in a depleted Pac and wins a natty or two, they'll become the new Clemson or FSU or the next Miami. Not a blueblood, but always in the convo. Do that for long enough and it builds until you are. Case in point, UConn basketball. Wasn't a blueblood in the 80s, but they are now.
  4. There are like ten schools that are in the same ballpark as each other and bring big value: Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame, Penn State, USC, Florida, LSU Then you have a few more who hover under them like: Nebraska, Oklahoma, Tennesse, Wisconsin So, unless those are the schools you're adding. Its not additive to the Big Ten nor SEC. UNC, Clemson, FSU, Oregon, Washington have solid value, but the only way you add to the big 2 now is if you get rid of lower fruit in there. Like, sorry Mississippi State, but you're out and FSU's in. It wouldn't bring bags of money, but it would, technically, add more, e.g. MSU is worth $30m/year, FSU may be $40-45m. It doesn't make everyone rich, but it swaps out for a bit higher value. But, outside ND, there is literally no one left who will add to the SEC/B1G's media money. The only way to really make more with it now, is combine the B1G/SEC into one media contract.
  5. “I’d like to stay at 14 [teams] even w/ the departures of Texas & Oklahoma. Candidly. It’s not so much a number that we’re thinking about. It’s really more about the fit… that’s critically important.” - @Big12Conference Commissioner @brettyormark
  6. They also attend games like Vandy, barely getting 25k to show up.
  7. Colorado = 1/12 Mizzu = 2/11 A&M = 10/11, though if you look at conference winning records = 3/11 Not sure why he left those off.
  8. Yeah i hate how twitter copies in, thanks for adding the rest
  9. July 21st in Vegas USC/UCLA announced on June 30th that they were leaving when the B1G presidents said they accepted their invitations.....that night. They join the B1G on August 2nd. So maybe the B1G needed it by the end of June for their fiscal starting or to include in the deal, but the Pac's fiscal doesn't end until August. If that's the case this could drag on for another month.
  10. I have no idea how they're getting close to B1G numbers when they lack Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and USC, literally four Top Ten teams in terms of consistent viewership. Twitter has been buzzing about the Canzano article today talking up SMU like its just coming off back to back natties. Apparently their NIL set up would be the second largest in the PAC and on top of giving up revenue, they're paying the PAC's debt. All the while, everything else has gone very quiet.
  11. Oregon has the biggest viewership of the remaining Pac, followed by Washington. Those two are clearly the best brands left in the Pac, but the problem is they aren't that much better, they're just a bit better. That's kind of the problem with the remaining teams. None move the Big two needle, some move the B12/ACC needle, some break even to those two, and some are worse. My napkin valuation would be kind of like: Move B12/ACC - $40-50m: Oregon, FSU, Clemson, Washington Break-even B12/ACC - 30-40m: UNC, Miami, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, ASU Drain - 20-30m: Cal, Washington State, Oregon State, Stanford So Oregon/Washington will make more in the B12 than the Pac12 because the current bar is higher, but we're not talking massive amounts. Like the B12 would pay out $35-37m with them. The B1G would lose money to bring them in though, and that's the bind they find themselves. As for recruiting, its not a localized as it once was. The teams that win will get the good kids, period. Alabama and Ohio State will grab kids out of Texas still, Oregon can too. They'll also still be able to recruit SoCal, even if it is harder. IF they keep winning and have good visibility. Lose those though and it will dry up.
  12. The thing here though is the over the air depends mainly on the amount of inventory you have. The more you have, the more good stuff you can put on linear for a higher return and you dump the garbage on streaming/conference networks for some extra loot. The B1G, at 14, usually puts 50% of its 63 games on linear, but they're massive games, so they drive big numbers. The rest funds the BTN carriage because all those fans want to see those games. The Big12, at ten teams, had nearly 75% of their 45 games on linear, because they didn't have enough to find a network/streaming and it was the only way to maintain the same level of competitive revenue. You'll see this get distorted in twitter viewership analysis, because all the stuff that would end up on a conference network, which isn't metered, was now on FS1, which is, so they have a lot of low interest games that most conferences bury in the not-metered market. If you ever wonder how the B12 survived losing Texas and Oklahoma, its because they drew really well in these games everyone figured would go unwatched. The Pac currently only has ten teams, but also has an anchor of the Pac 12 networks, with an agreement of 2 football games per year. This means that, unless they fold the PACN, which would be a massive loss write off, the Pac only has about 25 football games they can even take to market, any market, linear or streaming. Even if they could sell all of those, its still less than what the B12 sold to get their current number. The only thing I can think of that is "creative and forward thinking" that can save the PAC's ass at this point, is... Sell the entirety of the PACN to Apple for around $100m, which pays off the Pac's current issues and gives Apple a linear footprint in 14m west coast homes Apple gives the Pac a $3b deal over ten years for the rights to all of their content to be used in any way Apple wants, but most games are now Linear, just on this new channel. Apple rebrands and begins to fill the network off sports, featuring their shows on linear before they move to streaming, increasing buzz and viewership Apple expands its footprint organically by providing local MLB (who is losing local rights in many markets with RSN melt down) and MLS games, in market only (the NFL model) the US in sports markets - double win when the there is both a baseball and soccer team. Each expansion increases size and carriage. Become a player in future local rights, including the NBA That saves the Pac with a $30m/year deal, in PR at least as they won't hit that $30m/year average until 2030.
  13. So the same pitch of the PACN, which was promised $15m and delivered $3m?
  14. Yeah I don't think its ever got to that point with anyone. Nearly all I can remember negotiated out. Maybe SDSU will test that.
  15. That doesn't mean they're not enforceable in court, just that two parties agreed to negotiate a different settlement.
  16. Well, that's the timing thing. If they announce prior to this year ending (by July or August, i can't tell) then they'd lose the revenue for next year as a buyout. They'd also likely have to pick up the Comcast difference too. If they wait until after the next fiscal year ends, then they'd have to stay a year longer, e.g. into the first year of the new contract, which would then be whatever revenue is earned in 2024-25. But, the downside then is you have to sign a GoR to get on the next contract, so, you'd have to break that. Their window to move anywhere is before the next fiscal year starts, whenever that is. After that, they're going to be there for a while. If Comcast is $5m, and the buyout is $35m, and the new PAC contract is $25m, and the Big 12 pays like advertised at around $7m more per year, Colorado/AZ would break even right before the start of the next B12 contract.
  17. So....i went to track it down again and the B12 is 7/1 - 6/30. Here's the bylaws: Seems the Pac goes 8/1 - 7/31, here's from their handbook: Their Gor though, at least the reference to it, I'm guessing they have a tighter version of this somewhere, is started in July... It's a bit messy, but we're coming up on the window of "if you're going to jump, you need to jump now". That jump will cost them a year revenue, if I'm reading it right.
  18. I don't know this one, i haven't read the Pac's agreement. The B12 is August to July, as is I think the SEC's, so I just assumed they all kind of lined up that way.
  19. This. There are TWO agreements and both are equally binding. They just have different terms. Texas and Oklahoma had to settle their buyout AND their GoR to leave, not just one. The game change was for the GoR, the $100m was for the buyout.
  20. Ok something is getting lost in translation here. For the sake of argument, ignore all things GoR for a moment. Colorado and Arizona are contractual members of the Pac 12 and have various agreements dictating what happens if they want to leave, etc. This is in addition to that thing we agreed not to talk about. Leaving a conference has a buy-out amount on its own, regardless of any media deal. I am not sure what the Pac's is, but for the Big 12 it was two years of conference revenues. Money aside, the notice is important because it starts the leaving clock. If the Pac has to give notice 1 year out, then that notice has to occur before the end of that financial year. This is why you saw Texas/Oklahoma/UCLA/USC announce basically on the last days of July. Had they waited a week, the clock would have started at the beginning of the NEXT financial year. Why that's important: If Colorado and Arizona want out at the end of the Pac contract, which is the end of next year, they need to announce that intention by July 31st of this year. If they do not, they, technically - we all know how negotiations work so lets just avoid that conversation for the moment, cannot get out until July 31st of 2024-25, a year after the Pac 12 media contract expires. They either now need to pay more to get out faster, or they fucked themselves and have to get on the Pac's deal or no one will put them on TV in 2024-25.
×
×
  • Create New...