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bernorange

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Posts posted by bernorange

  1. 25 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

    in summary, the majority of families owned property, and as property value went up, it was a large financial boost for them. but regardless, everybody in the country also did well! ...

    It's a reflection of the value of the dollar diminishing via inflation.Β  Properties did not become more valuable.Β  The dollar became less so.Β  This is the immorality of the 2% inflation targeting writ large.

  2. 1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

    Why is stock concentration considered a leading indicator of economic doom? Β Why is decreasing money supply in correlation with that an indicator of economic doom? Β Some interesting graphs but seems kind of meaningless at face value.

    Stock concentration is a bubble warning indicator.Β  Decreasing money supply (Fed's QT in progress) means credit/debt destruction which is a headwind for the real economy.Β  Things will get interesting soon as the Fed's BTFP is not open any more and the ONRRP liquidity slush fund is draining.

    Quote

    ...
    Of about 4,000 U.S. banks analyzed by consulting firm Klaros Group, 282 institutions have both high levels of commercial real estate exposure and large unrealized losses from the rate surge β€” a potentially toxic combo that may force these lenders to raise fresh capital or engage in mergers.
    ...

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/where-cracks-in-the-banking-sector-may-appear-without-more-ma.html

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  3. Cryptos trading lower over the last day or so.Β  This is likely partly to blame:

    Quote

    OKX, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency exchange globally by trading volume, has announced the termination of Tether (USDT) trading pairs for users within the European Economic Area (EEA). This move precedes the full enactment of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation by the European Union (EU), set to become effective on Dec 30, 2024. MiCA aims to introduce a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, focusing on the restriction of certain stablecoins.
    ...

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/okx-discontinues-usdt-trading-pairs-in-eea-ahead-of-eu-crypto-regulation/ar-BB1k6XRg

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  4. 31 minutes ago, CBT said:

    ... I created him a child account, but can I move the id (ousucks123) to his account so he doesn't have to start over and lose progress and shit?Β ...

    Last I knew, the answer was NO.Β Β 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  5. Quote

    MetaMask, the popular cryptocurrency wallet for the Ethereum blockchain, is testing an entirely on-chain, Mastercard-branded payment card, according to promotional materials and a testing platform seen by CoinDesk.

    Such a product would unite two giants of their respective fields. MetaMask is the biggest self-custody wallet with more than 30 million monthly active users, while Mastercard provides key plumbing in the conventional financial system through its credit- and debit-card network spanning the globe.

    The MetaMask/Mastercard payment card would be "the first ever truly decentralized web3 payment solution," allowing users to spend their crypto "on everyday purchases, everywhere cards are accepted," according to the marketing materials.

    Mastercard and its rival Visa have been quietly courting public blockchain developer communities and self-custody wallet providers of late. Mastercard has been working with hardware wallet firm Ledger as well as MetaMask, CoinDesk reported in October of last year.

    Visa, meanwhile, has been working with the USDC stablecoin and the Solana blockchain on cross-border payments and smoothing out wrinkles like paying Ethereum gas fees.
    ...

    https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/03/11/with-mastercard-metamask-tests-first-blockchain-powered-payment-card/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

    *Huge* news if it rolls out to the public.Β  MetaMask is free and widely used, but limited to the Ethereum blockchain (and all the ERC20 crypto that is built upon it).Β  If MasterCard rolls out a similar solution with Ledger, that would be even more huge as Ledger provides access to virtually every major blockchain. Β 

    ~~~

    Quote

    Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade went live on Wednesday, introducing a mechanism to reduce costs associated with transactions on layer 2 solutions that batch and compress transactions before sending them to the mainnet.

    The latest information shows the upgrade is living up to expectations.

    According to blockchain analyst Marcov’s Dune-based tracker, the average cost of transactions on scaling solution Optimism has dropped to nearly 4 cents, down significantly from the recent average of around $1.4. The average fee on Coinbase’s layer 2 solution Base fell to 3 cents from roughly $1.50, while Arbitrum’s declined to 40 cents. The average fee on zkSync and Zora also fell.
    ...

    https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/03/14/layer-2-blockchains-become-cheaper-after-ethereums-dencun-upgrade/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

    ~~~

    Stellar (XLM) development news:

    Quote

    Companies that operate across geographical borders face significant operational and financial challenges in paying a global workforce. Fluctuating currency rates, transacting in multiple foreign currencies, and the manual nature of payroll administration for remote workers create friction for companies like BiGGER that rely on global operations to serve their customers. As these enterprises scale, human resources and treasury managers seek tools that streamline, automate, and reconcile payroll to minimize risk and operational costs.

    BiGGER, an Australian company providing training and business planning to non-technical founders building and scaling technical startups, experienced exponential growth throughout 2023. In six months, it tripled its employee count adding a significant concentration of employees based in Argentina. In doing so, BiGGER realized there were some challenges in paying a dispersed workforce with its existing crypto payout solution. Using crypto to pay workers proved to be a faster and low-cost option for the company, but the process itself still left opportunities for improvement.

    Each pay period, the staff would manually transfer funds from an operating account and issue individual payments to each employee. As the workforce grew, this manual process proved difficult to scale. New employees were required to provide their digital wallet credentials prior to their first payment in order to be added to the payroll. This was not only manual, but increased risks of user error during wallet creation and for administrators establishing a new payee.

    BiGGER staff realized they needed a turnkey and intuitive solution to send cross border bulk payouts to their global workforce. Although costly and high-touch manual processing was the reality of BiGGER’s payroll administration, the release of the open-source Stellar Disbursement Platform
    (SDP) enabled staff to quickly deploy an instance, sending bulk payouts with certainty and transparency in seconds. Processes that previously took 8 hours per month over multiple payroll cycles are now completed in minutes - such as reviewing payout amounts to include any withholdings, uploading a single csv file, and inviting employees to access funds. Employees can view and confirm funds immediately via Beans app, a digital wallet providing free global money transfers using stable digital assets.
    ...

    https://stellar.org/case-studies/bigger

    Stellar uses a Proof of Agreement consensus model that is very fast and very cheap (gas fee) compared to most crypto.Β  If the smart contract platform is as robust as Ethereum and Solana, it could end up challenging them.

    ~~~

    Quote

    ...
    Ownership of each Chaincrib property is split across a finite number of representative tokens minted on the Cardano blockchain.

    Here, you don't just own the tokenized properties as NFTs, Based on token share, owners can collect revenue from rent, and vote on property decisions.
    ...

    https://chaincrib.com/

    You will soon be able to buy fractional ownership of rental properties with crypto and collect your fractional share of rent in crypto as well.

  6. * bump *

    Quote

    One central bank head reportedly quoted the Italian philosopher Antonio Gramsci about the dollar’s dominance on the world stage: β€œThe old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.”

    That’s according to Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett in a research note. They said the remark was made at a Bank of America conference β€” the bank held a global investment summit in Rome this week.

    They also didn’t identify the speaker, though Bank of Italy Gov. Fabio Panetta delivered a speech and Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey participated in a panel in a Bank of Italy symposium in Rome this week. Messages left with both central bank press offices weren’t immediately returned.
    ...

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/now-is-the-time-of-monsters-one-central-bank-chief-has-doubts-about-the-dollar-s-hegemony/ar-BB1jX4Wy

    Europe is leading the charge for development of a new monetary world order based upon CBDCs and a digital ID.

  7. Quote

    ...
    What the PPI is telling us. The measure that tracks consumer-facing inflation, the Consumer Price Index, has for months seen hot and rising services inflation, but durable-goods inflation has been negative (deflation) since the peak of the spike in 2022, and these negative readings in durable goods, plus the plunging energy prices of yore provided a big counterweight to services inflation and a downward push for the overall CPI readings in 2023. But this counterweight and downward push is now in the early stages of fizzling – that’s what the PPI is telling us.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2024/03/14/what-the-ppi-is-telling-us-disinflation-in-core-goods-a-hefty-counterweight-to-hot-services-inflation-may-be-over/

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    • Hook 'Em 1
  8. Spot BTC ETFs saw over $1B of inflows yesterday.Β 

    Quote

    BlackRock has opened a new filing with the SEC to purchase more Bitcoin ETFs, according to new filing records by the commission. BlackRock intends to use the new Bitcoin ETFs for its Global Allocation Fund.
    ...
    The latest filing reads: β€œThe Fund may acquire shares in exchange-traded products (β€œETPs”) that seek to reflect generally the performance of the price of bitcoin by directly holding bitcoin (β€œBitcoin ETPs”), including shares of a Bitcoin ETP sponsored by an affiliate of BlackRock.” It adds, β€œThe Fund will only invest in Bitcoin ETPs that are listed and traded on national securities exchanges.”
    ...
    At the beginning of the week, BlackRock also applied with the SEC to purchase more Bitcoin ETFs for its Strategic Income Opportunities Fund. ...

    The SEC has yet to accept BlackRock’s initial request for more ETFs for its SIO Fund. It is up to the commission to approve the latest request for more ETFs.

    https://watcher.guru/news/blackrock-files-to-purchase-bitcoin-etfs-for-global-allocation-fund

    Quote

    Bernstein analysts said on Monday that they were now more convinced about bitcoin (BTC) hitting $150,000 by mid-2025 after the largest digital asset rallied to reach a new all-time high this year.

    The analysts also predicted that bitcoin will β€˜break out’ after the next halving event ...

    https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/03/11/bernstein-is-now-more-convinced-that-bitcoin-will-hit-150k-after-massive-rally/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

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  9. ~~~

    Quote

    ...
    For too long, the world has had to endure the fallout of subpar academic research on bitcoin mining’s energy use and environmental impact. The outcome of this bullshit research has been shocking news headlines that have turned some well-meaning people into angry politicians and deranged activists. So that you never have to endure the brutality of one of these sloppy papers, I’ve sacrificed my soul to the bitcoin mining gods and performed a full-scale analysis of a study from the United Nations University, published recently in the American Geophysical Union’s Earth’s Future. Only the bravest and hardest of all bitcoin autists may proceed to the following paragraphs, the rest of you can go back to watching the price chart.

    Your soft baby ears might have screamed with shock at the strong proclamation in my lede that the biggest and squeakiest research on bitcoin mining is bullshit. If you’ve ever read Jonathan Koomey’s 2018 blog post on the Digiconomist–also known as Alex deVries, or his 2019 Coincenter report, or Lei et al. 2021, or Sai and Vranken 2023, or Masanet et al. 2021, or… Well, the point is that there’s thousands of words already written that have shown that bitcoin mining energy modeling is in a state of crisis and that this is not isolated to bitcoin! It’s a struggle that data center energy studies have faced for decades. People like Jonathan Koomey, Eric Masanet, Arman Shehabi, and those nice guys Sai and Vranken (sorry, we’re not yet on a first-name basis) have written enough pages that could probably cover the walls of at least one men’s bathroom at every bitcoin conference that’s happened last year, that show this to be true.

    My holy altar, which I keep in my bedroom closet, is a hand-carved, elegant yet ascetic shrine to Koomey, Masanet, and Shehabi for the decades of work they’ve done to improve data center energy modeling. These sifus of computing have made it all very clear to me: if you don’t have bottom-up data and you rely on historical trends while ignoring IT device energy efficiency trends and what drives demand, then your research is bullshit. And so, with one broad yet very surgical stroke, I swipe left on Mora et al. (2018), deVries (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023), Stoll et al. (2019), Gallersdorfer et al. (2020), Chamanara et al. (2023), and all the others that are mentioned in Sai and Vranken’s comprehensive review of the literature. ...
    ...
    On a somewhat bearish October afternoon, I got tagged on Twitter/X on a post about a new bitcoin energy use study from some authors affiliated with the United Nations University (Chamanara et al., 2023). Little did I know that this study would trigger my autism so hard that I would descend into my own kind of drug-induced-gonzo-fear-and-loathing-in-vegas state, and hyper-focus on this study for the next four weeks. While I am probably exaggerating about the heavy drug use, my recollection of this time is very much a techno-colored, toxic relationship-level fever dream. Do you remember Frank from the critically acclaimed 2001 film, Donnie Darko? Yeah, he was there, too.

    As I started taking notes on the paper, I realized that Chamanara et al.’s study was really confusing. The paper was perplexing because it's a poorly designed study that bases its raison d’etre entirely on de Vries and Mora et al. It uses the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance (CCAF) Cambridge Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index (CBECI) data without acknowledging the limitations of the model (see Lei et al. 2021 and Sai and Vranken 2023 for an in-depth analysis of the issues with CBECI’s modeling). It conflates its results from the 2020-2021 period with the state of bitcoin mining in 2022 and 2023. The authors also relied on some environmental footprint methodology that would make you think it was actually possible for you to shrink or grow a reservoir depending on how hard you Netflix and chill. Really, this is what Obringer et al. (2020) inferentially conclude is possible and the UN study cites Obringer as one of its methodological foundations. By the way, Koomey and Masanet did not like Obringer et al.’s methodology, either. I’ll light another soy-based candle at the altar in their honor.
    ...

    More (very long w/link to even longer full report):

    https://bitcoinmagazine.com/sponsored/mining-misinformation-how-the-united-nations-university-misrepresented-data-to-exaggerate-bitcoins-environmental-footprint

    ~~~

    Quote

    SEC’s Unlawful Targeting of Digital Asset Industry Challenged in New Lawsuit From Startup LEJILEX and Crypto Freedom Alliance of Texas

    Texas lawsuit seeks confirmation that most digital asset sales are not subject to SEC enforcement

    Lawsuit follows years of overreaching SEC enforcement actions that have undermined the digital asset industry and American technological innovation

    LEJILEX’s proactive approach protects the company from erroneous SEC enforcement actions prior to initiation of operations

    February 21, 2024 11:30 AM Eastern Standard Time

    FORT WORTH, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--LEJILEX, an emerging digital asset company, and Crypto Freedom Alliance of Texas (β€œCFAT”), a nonprofit trade association that advocates for the responsible development of digital asset policies in Texas, filed a complaint today against the Securities and Exchange Commission (β€œSEC”), challenging the agency's unlawful assertion of regulatory authority over practically all digital asset transactions in Texas and the United States. This case, filed in anticipation of CFAT member company LEJILEX launching a new digital asset trading platform, seeks confirmation that transactions in digital assets on this platform are not sales of securities that are subject to SEC registration requirements. In doing so, they hope to end years of misguided SEC policy that is actively harming law-abiding American businesses.

    In the complaint, filed today in the United States District Court for the Northern District of Texas, LEJILEX and CFAT – represented by Clement & Murphy, PLLC and Duane Morris, LLP – outline how the SEC has usurped near-total jurisdiction over the digital asset industry, despite several SEC Commissioners themselves acknowledging that Congress has never granted their agency authority to do so.

    The SEC not only lacks legal authority to regulate most digital asset transactions, but has proven it is unprepared to respect the limits Congress has put on its jurisdiction or even to develop and enforce common sense and consistent regulations for this emerging industry, relying instead on regulation via ad hoc enforcement actions. The SEC’s unlawful, unpredictable approach has created an environment in which companies like LEJILEX are unable to operate without fear of being subject to SEC enforcement actions – leaving a trillion-dollar industry and law-abiding individuals in a state of uncertainty while diminishing the United States’ leadership in this critical sector.

    As the complaint explains, despite repeated pleas from industry participants, the SEC has refused to provide β€œany definitive regulation that would afford industry participants clear ex ante guidance” on what digital assets transactions fall within its scope. Instead, the SEC has used one-off enforcement actions to assert an β€œoverly broad view of its own authority” – a view that β€œfails as a matter of statutory text, history, precedent, and common sense, and would allow the SEC to unilaterally seize control over a trillion-dollar industry without anything like the clear statutory mandate necessary to justify such a massive expansion of agency power.”

    To justify their ad hoc enforcement actions, the SEC claims that practically all digital assets qualify as securities under the SEC’s purview because they represent β€œinvestment contracts,” a catch-all category within the definition of security. In this lawsuit, the plaintiffs seek a judicial declaration that sales of digital assets like the ones that would take place on LEJILEX’s platform are not securities transactions. As the plaintiffs’ complaint explains, these transactions do not fit the definition of "investment contracts"; if they did, the SEC’s authority would be virtually limitless, covering any purchase of an asset that might appreciate in value. For example, the SEC’s view of its own authority would apparently mean that buying a pair of limited-run Nike sneakers with the intention of reselling them, while expecting that Nike would continue working to increase demand for those coveted shoes, would be enough to turn those sneakers into securities, their resale into a securities transaction subject to regulation by the SEC, and any auction house or consignment store that helps resell them into an unregistered securities exchange.

    β€œWe wish we were launching our business instead of filing a lawsuit, but here we are,” said Mike Wawszczak, Co-Founder of LEJILEX. He continued, β€œThe SEC’s rogue enforcement actions targeting our industry have paralyzed those of us who just want to build lawful businesses and technologies. Fear of rogue enforcement should not be a thing entrepreneurs are forced to experience. We hope our action encourages the SEC to reconsider its regulatory approach, and we welcome them to work with us and our industry to ensure the most important technologies of the future are built here in America, under American laws, consistent with American values.
    ...

    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240220458690/en/SEC

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  10. 2 hours ago, BonzoMontreaux said:

    Click Word Players, what is your strategy?Β  Clear the board asap? Go for combos? Just make words?

    On 12/28/2023 at 9:00 AM, bernorange said:

    It took me a while, but I finally figured out how to best maximize scoring while managing tile usage/anticipation.Β  My plans don't always work out and sometimes I have to adapt on the fly, but as long as I pay attention to the tile count I generally do pretty well lately.Β  I had a game a while back similar to what you had today - waited until way too long for a usually very common N to appear and everything fell to shit.

    My strategery:

    1. Identify rows/columns with multiple 2x tiles and try to think of valid 6 letter words that would fit.Β  If multiple 6 letter words are possible, choose one with the most common letters.Β  Set up a 3 letter crossword on the most common letter in the word to complete the cross (so you can wait to complete until everything is set).

    2. Same as 1 except using any remaining rows/columns with just one 2x tile.

    3. Try to use any free 3x3 square or "L" area to make simple 3 letter word crosses for letters not needed for 1 & 2.

    Special tips:

    The letter U seems to be rare - only coming once or twice a game.Β  Don't depend on it for the 6 letter words.Β  Plan for it if you have a 2x Q tile.

    There always seems to be a few K tiles and one Z tile.Β  If you can use them as the letter that completes a cross, you score bigly.Β  Learn 3 letter words that begin and end with those letters.

    There is a button at the top right that lets you test words to see if they are in the game's dictionary.Β  Use it!Β  There are a lot of WTF words that are valid (but hell if I know what they mean!).

    ~~~

    For the lurkers (ie. folks who have not yet tried this game), this game ( ClickWord.org ) is becoming my favorite word game of the lot played here.Β  There is some luck involved with the tile drops, but not as much as you'd think when you first start out.Β  After playing a bit, you get a feel for what to expect with the tiles and anticipation gets easier.Β  There is a lot more strategy in this game than the others.Β  It also doesn't take that long (compared to Blossom for sure!).

    YMMV ...

    Another "special" tip - keep an eye on the tile count.Β  Once it nears 20, consider whether or not you need to change strategy on any big words you are trying to build/complete.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  11. Quote

    Consumers increasingly doubt the Federal Reserve can achieve its inflation goals anytime soon, according to a survey Monday from the New York Federal Reserve.

    While the outlook over the next year was unchanged at 3%, that wasn't the case for the longer term. At the three-year range, expectations rose 0.3 percentage point to 2.7%, while the five-year outlook jumped even more, up 0.4 percentage point to 2.9%.

    All three are well ahead of the Fed's 2% goal for 12-month inflation, indicating the central bank may need to keep policy tighter for longer. Economists and policymakers consider expectations as a key factor in viewing the path of inflation, so the Survey of Consumer Expectations for February could be bad news.
    ...

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/11/long-term-inflation-expectations-rise-spelling-possible-trouble-for-the-fed-survey-shows.html

    Β 

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