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triplehorn

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Everything posted by triplehorn

  1. I saw the one month (to death) number batted around a few pages back:
  2. If we don't completely drop the hammer, it will take longer, but the numbers will still get really, really bad. R naught (R0) has to maintained at <1. 3/30 Imperial College study:
  3. My buddy on the Cali coast down in HB just received IgG/IgM antibody kits for his practice. Said it's wild west trying to get them - not shipping to individual docs yet. Ordered 160 and had to pick them up himself. I don't now. Hope they're legit.
  4. Yeah. He's an actively licensed MD in NY w board cert. Some stories popping up now This doc is getting some socmed attention, but docs have been applying the SK/China protocols off label for weeks. It appears this Hasidic doc just happens to have a robust primary care practice in a major covid hotspot. So he's getting the actual volume of clinical cases in real time to make initial observations.
  5. cross-posting this tweet (read the inset images of the report from the NY doc): Where this is headed: treating with HCHQ/Azith as early as possible MIGHT offer definitive advantages to limit complications and death from covid. The dilemma is that 1) still need blinded controlled studies to confirm 2) Our national per capita testing capacity and results turnaround time (avg. 4-7 days) is horrible and nullifies any advantage the meds may have if you rely on getting a test and waiting for a positive result. What does the NY docs report suggest? Consideration should be made by medical authority to offer treatment of presumptive covid infection in patients presenting with influenza-like symptoms and shortness of breath at any age, or patients with any ILI symptoms and co-morbid risk factors without waiting for a positive covid test result.
  6. Yes: "The Food and Drug Administration on Sunday issued an emergency use authorization for hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, decades-old malaria drugs championed by President Donald Trump for coronavirus treatment despite scant evidence. The agency allowed for the drugs to be "donated to the Strategic National Stockpile to be distributed and prescribed by doctors to hospitalized teen and adult patients with COVID-19, as appropriate, when a clinical trial is not available or feasible," HHS said in a statement, announcing that Sandoz donated 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine to the stockpile and Bayer donated 1 million doses of chloroquine. (Diamond, 3/29)" Also note supply is not the issue right now, early detection is. Since the testing problem will take weeks at best to sort out, better to treat unconfirmed cases as soon as possible with medical review of history to assess safety of rx for each individual. If you've got any ILI with shortness of breath, or co-morbid risk factors with any ILI, you get it with your informed consent. Have that stuff prepackaged asap and handed out in 5 day bubble packs without need to go to the pharmacy.
  7. No need to leverage myself when Ive got you and Sydney doing the heavy lifting. I guarantee you there are any number of people with access to concierge medical service who, in addition to their access to testing, have been getting this treatment for weeks. It's just so shitty that we didn't get a unified message out to contain the spread of this in time with aggressive social measures. There would have been more than adequate resources to help everyone better.
  8. That's a blatant one for sure. He's also trying to put the toothpaste back in the tube in Michigan after shitting all over their Gov. If he had a prayer at swinging WA, he'd change his tune with WA Gov., but alas the assault continues. Trump is just an all around corrupt piece of shit who couldn't care less about saving lives if it doesn't boost his personal ambitions.
  9. I've been a proponent of this approach all along (obviously). Note that due to lack of testing and poor turn around time when a test is available, this doc is using clinical presentation divided into 3 categories for presumptive positive treatment of covid. Even if blinded randomized controlled studies show that not only does HCQ/Azith tx help, but that it helps a lot more with early intervention compared to when advanced complications occur, we're still fucked because of our totally inadequate testing capacity and infrastructure. So this doc isn't letting that prevent him from what appears to be a life saving approach in war zone conditions. Good on him.
  10. Sometimes you don't even need a test. South Austin's mom is AB+
  11. Last sentence of the new study's abstract: "We believe other teams should urgently evaluate this cost-effective therapeutic strategy, to both avoid the spread of the disease and treat patients as soon as possible before severe respiratory irreversible complications take hold." I'm bullish on this. Again, MUST generate capacity for mass testing for everyone, symptomatic or not, with rapid turnaround (Abbot has their 15min test ready to go) and meds at the ready to dispense, ideally at point of testing and put on blast. *I know it's premature with obvious unknowns, but my gut tells me these things taken together for early intervention could be huge.
  12. I still haven't read the study, but yes - the key is mass testing with emphasis on rapid results turnaround for early intervention. 4-7 day results turnaround is a death sentence for a lot of people who otherwise could respond to timely intervention.
  13. Yes, the French study DID include a voluntary consenting non-medicated control group. The 3 groups just weren't blinded or randomized. The medicated groups went viral PCR negative significantly faster even at day 3 of 6. At day 6 the effect was more pronounced. Addition of azithromycin to CHQ in a third group had even better response. Limited sample size and study design but statistically valid.
  14. 100,000-200,000 deaths? He's making it sound like peaches compared to 2.1 Million. We should be grateful for his acumen, foresight, and steady hand. Meanwhile SK has a total of 152 deaths managing this fight almost twice as long.
  15. I count at least twice Birx qualified the mitigation measures as being most needed in "metropolitan" cities/areas. That does everyone not in a large city a deadly disservice. When asked about his comments on an Easter pullback, Trump said "we've learned a lot in the last 2-3 weeks." No, that was you on Thursday, you dip.
  16. Florida is the 3rd most populous state ahead of NY, has a bunch of tinder box “little Italy’s”, and a Trumper governor. What could go wrong ?
  17. Covid is in every state spreading at a high rate where aggressive measures haven’t been in place. Stating the obvious, but unless you shut it down within your own borders, securing a perimeter does less than zero. Worse, it can give people a false sense of security to not yet have to buckle up. That’s deadly. Maybe Trumper Governors think they’ll get a golden reward in money and supplies by toeing the public line to continue support of Trump’s deadly denial of reality. But that reward never appears because once Trump returns a debt, he loses a measure of control.
  18. So Florida lags NY by 7 days to match each logarithmic (x10) milestone. Each new log milestone takes 7 days to achieve.
  19. "How # Taiwan tripled its mask production AFTER the outbreak of the Corona crisis: Government installed 92 new production facilities in a few weeks for around EUR 10 million. Capacity 13 million # masks / day. If own needs secured, export / auxiliary deliveries." This largely requires a federal level of mobilization and coordination. Continuation of the ongoing pattern of "reacting to and chasing" developments at the highest levels leads to sustained failure.
  20. I'm keeping an eye on these tables here, (scroll down to see day over day bar graphs for each country) What's really striking about those graphs is the y-axis values for Japan, Singapore, and SK. Their total cases to date are a fraction of the total we're already adding each day. Japan and SoKo deaths are doubling every 13 days right now.
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