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SimonBolivar

Certifiably Surly
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    U.S. intelligence shows that Iran has been preparing for possible strikes on U.S. bases, officials say.

    The U.S.S. Carl Vinson aircraft carrier in 2024. The carrier is currently steaming in the Arabian Sea. Iranian allies or proxies are expected to resume attacks on U.S. ships in the region if the United States joins Israel’s campaign.Credit...Richard A. Brooks/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
    Iran has prepared missiles and other military equipment for strikes on U.S. bases in the Middle East should the United States join Israel’s war against the country, according to American officials who have reviewed intelligence reports.

    The United States has sent about three dozen refueling aircraft to Europe that could be used to assist fighter jets protecting American bases or that would be used to extend the range of bombers involved in any possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

    Fears of a wider war are growing among American officials as Israel presses the White House to intervene in its conflict with Iran. If the United States joins the Israeli campaign and strikes Fordo, a key Iranian nuclear facility, the Iranian-backed Houthi militia will almost certainly resume striking ships in the Red Sea, the officials said. They added that pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria would probably try to attack U.S. bases there.

    Other officials said that in the event of an attack, Iran could begin to mine the Strait of Hormuz, a tactic meant to pin American warships in the Persian Gulf.

    Commanders put American troops on high alert at military bases throughout the region, including in the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The United States has more than 40,000 troops deployed in the Middle East.

    Two Iranian officials have acknowledged that the country would attack U.S. bases in the Middle East, starting with those in Iraq, if the United States joined Israel’s war.

    Iran would also target any American bases that are in Arab countries and take part in an attack, the two officials said.

    “Our enemies should know that they cannot reach a solution with military attacks on us and will not be able to force their will on the Iranian people,” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said in a statement on Monday. Mr. Araghchi told his European counterparts in phone conversations that if the war spread, the blame would be on Israel and its main supporters, according to a summary of the calls provided by Iran’s foreign ministry.

    U.S. officials said Iran would not need much preparation to attack American bases in the region. The Iranian military has missile bases within easy striking range of Bahrain, Qatar and United Arab Emirates.

    The prospect of U.S. forces joining the war has increased in recent days as Israel has continued its campaign, and Iran has launched waves of missiles at Israel in response.

    It is not clear how much damage a strike on Fordo would do to Iran’s nuclear capabilities or how long it would delay the development of a weapon. Iran’s current stockpile of enriched uranium is also hidden in tunnels at different locations in the country.

    Several American officials said that Israel would need U.S. help to more significantly damage Iran’s nuclear program.

    American assistance could include providing air cover for Israeli commandoes who go into Iran on the ground. But, officials said, the more probable outcome is a strike by U.S. B-2 stealth bombers armed with the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a weapon that theoretically has the ability to bore into the mountain that shelters the underground Fordo facility.

    Any strike on Fordo by the United States or with U.S. assistance would prompt Iran and its allies to retaliate.

    Iran and its allies have been able to harm Americans in the past. The Houthis curbed their attacks after the Trump administration stepped up strikes on them. But in recent years they have repeatedly tried to strike American warships and have hit commercial shipping. In January 2024, an Iranian-backed militia carried out a drone attack on a U.S. base in Jordan near the Syrian border that killed three American soldiers.

    American intelligence agencies have long concluded that Iran was close to being able to make a nuclear weapon but had not decided whether to do so. If Iran decided to make a weapon, it would be less than a year away from being able to field one. A crude, more basic nuclear bomb could possibly be constructed more quickly.

    President Trump has repeatedly said he will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. On Tuesday, he called for Iran’s unconditional surrender.

    But the Israeli attacks may have changed Iran’s calculus. U.S. officials skeptical of Israel’s campaign said on Tuesday that it has probably convinced Tehran that the only way to prevent future attacks would be to develop a full nuclear deterrent.

    Some of those officials said that if Iran is likely to pursue a nuclear weapon no matter what, pressure could increase on the Trump administration to strike.

    But critics of aggressive, militaristic foreign policy said it was not too late for the United States to turn back.

    “It is never too late to start a war,” said Rosemary Kelanic, the director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, a think tank that advocates a restrained foreign policy.

    Ms. Kelanic acknowledged that Israel’s strike had given Iran an incentive to potentially develop a nuclear weapon. But she added that the incentive would “multiply dramatically if the United States joins the war.”

    “Once you get involved, man, its really hard to step back,” she said. “You are just going to go all in.”

    Adam Goldman contributed reporting.

     

  2. LOL NYTimes good one.

     

    Quote

    And President Trump on Tuesday threatened the ayatollah in a social media post, saying “we know exactly where” he is. But he added that “we are not going to take him out (kill!), at least for now.” Killing foreign leaders is against the law in the United States.

     

    • Haha 2
  3. 16 minutes ago, Baboontyme said:

    I need to nail down transfers and car rental for late July for 4 of us. Any experience with Cancun Valet? That's who wood's guy sent me to. Is there a preferred safe rental car company? Will need to get from the airport to the island, then a few days later off the island and to the rental car, and then of course rental car back to airport. 

    CARM and USATransfers are both 100% solid. I'm sure Wood's guy is excellent since he/she/it goes all the time, iirc. Don't get a taxi at the airport to the ferry or the ferry to the rental car place. I'd take CARM/USATransfers to the ferry from the airport then use Uber for the other two trips if you don't want to pay the higher price for the convenience of CARM/USATransfers. You can't legally get an Uber from the airport but can take one to the airport.

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Like 1
  4. 16 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

    Gee, will ya look at that.  Somehow or other, enrichment accelerated when someone tore up this agreement we had.  Or maybe that whole thing is an elaborate construct of the MSM.

    YARN | Evidently. | Seinfeld (1989) - S08E10 The Andrea ...

    • Haha 1
  5. Just now, El Tri said:

    has she tried the takis stix? hard to find, but they're a good copy of churrumais.

     

    you should be able to find churrumais at a michoacana if you have one near you

    I'll have to get her some to see if she likes them.

     

    I just stopped by a Helados La Azteca near my job and grabbed a couple bags of Churrumais yesterday that came out to $7.50. We paid $35 pesos for two of them on Isla.

  6. 17 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

    There is an all inclusive in the isle now right? What’s the name of it?

    I know that you can get it at Mia Reef and Privilege Aluxes. I think there are more places on the island that offer it, but I don't think there's anywhere large enough (restaurant variety) to make it really worth it unless you can drink well drinks like a fish. The food in restaurants on Isla are good and cheap enough (by American standards) to make it hard to make AI worth it to me.

     

    Hell at Aluxes last week we got the rooftop suite w/private pool on the non-inclusive plan and that came with the standard four types of liquor you'd normally see at AI places and a bottle or Rose. The mini-bar with waters, sodas, and beers was not included (lol).
    20250609_155931.thumb.jpg.ec59e919eab6482ee792c8f1865fa877.jpg

     

    • Hook 'Em 2
  7. Another excellent trip and the locals were back to being as friendly as they were a decade or so ago. We really had excellent service at all three of Mahache (first time for us here), North Garden, and Abuelos. Also had fun searching through Super Aki, Oxxo, and convenience stores looking for some Churrumais that the wife was craving. We ended up finding it at one of the small tiendas in an alleyway where we bought them out.    

    Abuelos was especially over the top great with the whole family, dog (x2), and cat greeting us. 

  8. Taking someone to their first Austin FC is always a fun experience. My brother and I took our dad a couple years back and he said, "Do they have metal bleachers like a HS football stadium?"

     

    He was not expecting the stadium/atmosphere and had a fantastic time for someone who gives 0 fucks about sports in general and especially soccer.

    • Hook 'Em 3
  9. 21 hours ago, El Tri said:

    going for 4 days in late june and staying in the southern most point of the island (never stayed down there before)

    couple of questions: 

    recommendations of restaurants near there (also can be near north beach)

    how much would a taxi be to take me to north beach?

    Panadería Emanuel is down there and is a good stop to load up on cheap pan for the stay.

  10. 57 minutes ago, McCroskey said:

    Fucking rigged. Love all the idiots falling for it.

    To what end?

     

    Is it supposed to be some elaborate troll job to laugh at everyone that isn't MAGA/Tech Bro? Because if so, it certainly has weird kid in school putting his feces on the wall because he thinks it's funny vibes 

    • Like 1
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