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Sawbonz

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Sawbonz

  1. 13 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

    Flurona is not fun. 
     

    Thankfully so far no shortness of breath but lots of fatigue, congestion (nasal and chest) and coughHoping I started Tamiflu soon enough. Dr struggled over ordering the COVID antiviral pill but went with flu since he was worried about issues using both. 

    Damn that sucks. I had the flu first year med school. Flu season came early that year before the shots were out and there was no such thing as tamiflu. I guess it’s frowned upon but I use Afrin for a few days for severe nasal congestion. Sudafed if no HTN issues.
     

    Load up on zinc and vitamin C. May be  placebo but can’t hurt

     

    also 

     

     

    image.gif

    • Haha 1
  2. 2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    Man, that seems high

    Just looked again their data run to September only so it’s definitely possible with the increase in testing with omicron it may have dropped, though with more people vaxed and a milder variant there may be a higher percentage of asymptomatics not testing. Early in 2021 it was 1 in 7 or 8 IIRC and they use the same methodology they use to estimate flu based on reported positives Estimate based on reported cdc

    they also have a much higher estimated total deaths 921K through September 2021

     

  3. 1 minute ago, Bravo said:

    Why isn't natural immunity even in the US public health equation though like several European countries who seem to understand it more? It's very odd. It's very logical to have it included in some way in public policy but it's completely ignored in the US. 

    It’s stupid to talk about in the setting of a novel virus. I think going forward it will be. See my edit above. 

  4. 1 minute ago, Bravo said:

    I am talking about the asymptomatic cases. Once again don't go down the path of me saying people should go out and get Covid for the immunity. It's not what I'm saying. Any talk about natural immunity here quickly goes to that then immediately this is vaccine misinformation and antivaxxer. 

    Sure. My point is when you are virus naive you have no way of knowing if you are going to have a couple of sneezes or die drowning in your own body fluids with blood clots in your brain and heart. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
  5. 4 minutes ago, Bravo said:

    I imagine there would be a lot of people surprised they had covid and never knew it. It is good in a way as it beefs up their immune system to future exposure. 

    It’s good if it doesn’t kill you to acquire it

    Covid is no longer a novel virus, and at this point the public health leaders need to be explaining what that means and how policy needs to evolve going forward 

    • Hook 'Em 4
    • Like 1
  6. 24 minutes ago, Bravo said:

    Many people have had it and never knew. I don't know the updated statistic but I do remember early on in the pandemic hearing over and over again roughly 50% of people are asymptomatic. It's also why COVID spreads so efficiently. There are large numbers of people not even knowing they have it. 

    CDC estimates roughly 1 in 4 total cases are reported last update I checked. That percentage obviously goes down as testing goes up but assuming 70M reported cases to date that is roughly 280M cases. Obviously some are reinfection, but the majority of Americans have been exposed at this point

  7. 8 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

    Thanks for this. I need to do this as have had 2 bouts with what seems exactly like rona only to negative test.  Double moderna but would like to know if I've ever had it. 

    There are several adenovirus strains and apparently they are making a pretty big comeback. They can put you down pretty good

  8. 19 hours ago, Parliament said:

    Quite a few Volga Germans (often called Germans from Russia) settled in North Dakota.  Hardy people, they.  Every generation of them saw some wild shit.

     

    In ND they refused to send their kids to public school.  I guess the Russian Czar's would go to the schools and taked their kids.  When they immigrated here they said "Won't be fooled again."

    Didn’t they know how close they were to Montana?

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1
  9. On 1/19/2022 at 11:47 AM, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

    oh man, viewing booths. we all know what that means. I worked for a short stint at Pleasureland off 29th and Guadalupe (it's an Oat Willie's now). Boy do I have some stories. Luckily they hired someone to come in and clean the jackin' booths. No way I was doing that shit for $5.15/hr

    image.jpeg.4a69c429c15a5c123323f3293463f52d.jpeg

    • Drool 1
  10. Assuming we are past the omicron surge — and the CMO who sends me the super secret emails says we are (if you don’t believe me look at the NYT 7 day avg it suggests the same) — it’s time to open up fully. This surge had similar ICU utilization as the biggest previous surge with 3 x the average daily new cases. Everyone who wants the vax/booster can or has had it. The rest can get fucked. 

    • Hook 'Em 5
    • Like 1
  11. 1 minute ago, Bravo said:

    disinformation specialist. i said i am not going to get in another exchange with you because you argue in bad faith. 

    Hey somebody trustworthy please ask this dipshit my question. You can tell he really wants to answer it but wants to keep his promise not to engage with me.

    • Haha 1
  12. 3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    I'm laughing at the idea that @Sawbonz is somehow mistrustful.  He's all kinds of human and sometimes prone to mistakes, but the guy is one of the most evidence-driven posters around here.  STFU with that crap.

    I was wrong on the total Cali ICU numbers. My numbers from 2 of 5 (last I checked) level 1 trauma centers in DFW are accurate. Sorry I’m not going to post emails labeled “confidential” and sent with encryption on a message board

  13. 39 minutes ago, Bravo said:

    LOL OK. He lied in his "apology" too. Quickly spun by him with his secret data. The adjective is appropriate. 

    I’ve mentioned those emails on multiple threads going back to the previous surges, and all prior surges resulted in weeks (and occasionally months) of OR closures for all but urgent cases. That hasn’t happened at either hospital this time around and it is due to the fact that there is adequate ICU availability to continue elective cases.  I could not care less if you believe me or not. You either don’t have the ability to understand why now is not the same as any point in 2020 or you are a liar. I haven’t given you the benefit of the doubt because you continue to ignore the differences year over year in new cases, ICU census, and deaths from 2021 to current when I bring them up.  If you truly don’t understand then I will walk you through it. Just ask. 

    • Hook 'Em 6
  14. Just now, Bravo said:

    and the spin continues. just stop posting today and regroup. your 2 lies directly contradict the actual data. there is no saving face.

    I don’t need to regroup. The data I made my assumptions on are good data. I’m very comfortable saying the available data support Cali opening up. Why do you think they don’t?

    • Hook 'Em 2
  15. 4 minutes ago, Bravo said:

    boy, you're dense and a lying troll. I was calling out the hypocrisy in the change of tune with Newsome due changing public sentiment. Anything else you're going to make up today? That's 3 lies. 

    I saw you saying numbers didn’t justify opening up is that not correct?

    • Hook 'Em 1
  16. 23 minutes ago, Bravo said:

    Holy hell, you even made this shit up to try to cover your other lie. ICU Bed usage TX statewide and DFW. You lie about everything? Stupid or full of shit?

    654000399_txicu.thumb.JPG.a610bf5ea0d9d47768939042c7fb4b0a.JPG

    dfw.thumb.JPG.8b9e96bfa67809aaae5990d61c1215bd.JPG

    I’ve got private emails from 2 level 1 trauma centers in north Texas stating ICU numbers are low and we can proceed with nonurgent cases. Peak is   projected to be this week. I’m not posting the emails here but there are posters here that know me IRL and can vouch for whether I would have access to those data. You want to argue fine points that do not support your conclusion that Cali should be locked down based on current numbers. You’re wrong

    • Hook 'Em 1
  17. 31 minutes ago, Bravo said:

    People will to lose their minds over this idea. They won't be able to discern the point you made if you already had covid as part of public health policy from well you're telling people to go out and get covid on purpose. I have said this many times as European countries already do it and understand this better than we do. This will be labeled anti-vaxxer talk to some not being able to see the simple nuance. 

    You’re the only one on here arguing to keep Cali locked down

    • Hook 'Em 4
  18. 21 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

    Most of the unvaxxed by now have recovered from Covid. And i regret to inform you PW, that even the CDC is admitting the superiority of natural immunity. They aren’t stating it, but it’s what their most recent data shows. 
     

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm


    From May to November data in California and your beloved New York. Once Delta took over, naturally recovered, but unvaccinated were better across both cases and hospitalizations than two shots and never infected. 
     

    “For example, during the week of October 3, compared with rates among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, rates among vaccinated persons without a previous diagnosis were 6.2-fold lower (95% CI = 6.0–6.4) in California and 4.5-fold lower (95% CI = 4.3–4.7) in New York (Table 2). Further, rates among unvaccinated persons with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis were 29-fold lower (95% CI = 25.0–33.1) than rates among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis in California and 14.7-fold lower (95% CI = 12.6–16.9) in New York. Rates among vaccinated persons who had had COVID-19 were 32.5-fold lower (95% CI = 27.5–37.6) than rates among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis in California and 19.8-fold lower (95% CI = 16.2–23.5) in New York.”

     

    “During October 3–16, compared with hospitalization rates among unvaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalization rates were 19.8-fold lower (95% CI = 18.2–21.4) among vaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, 55.3-fold lower (95% CI = 27.3–83.3) among unvaccinated persons with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, and 57.5-fold lower (95% CI = 29.2–85.8) among vaccinated persons with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis.“

     

    The effect of being vaxxed after recovering was quite minimal. None of this is to say that people, especially elderly or with co-morbidities, should seek out getting infected over getting vaccinated. They should get vaccinated. It’s just more evidence that excluding people from society or firing them when they are unvaxxed despite being infected is nonsensical.
     

    As more people see this kind of data along with the all the breakthrough infections from omicron that have followed this data, these mandates will be less and less popular.


    This all has the caveat that there is no booster data yet and we aren’t discussing booster mandates. No one here will say they want mandates to include boosters.

     

    The problem with relying on natural immunity alone is you may die to obtain it. The best scenario going forward is probably vaccinated followed by infection. My gut feeling is future variants will be less severe which will help as well. 

     

    I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere but have any of the manufacturers changed the vaccination to cover delta and/or omicron? The flu vaccine gets tweaked yearly, and I could see an argument for mandatory boosters for healthcare workers (like we do for flu) and strongly encouraging the elderly and high risk to get boosted if something similar is done for Covid. Getting a booster for Covid 19.1 doesn't make a lot of sense at this point tbh

    • Hook 'Em 3
  19. 7 minutes ago, Bravo said:

    This will be the last I answer anything from you because you are disingenuous and argue in bad faith not figuring someone would call you out on your BS. The numbers dont support it when you compare to CA historic data. ICU beds which you mentioned over and over again in your argument as being "way down" when they're way up as a reason to loosen restrictions was proven a lie. Deaths are higher in CA as we speak than a good portion of the pandemic especially when their strict policies started. Cases are double the last wave. It is a pure political move not based on the data Newsome has used in the past to make policy. Hypocrisy.  

    Your calling anyone disingenuous is hilarious. You are using death data from 2020, when daily new case rates for the ENTIRE COUNTRY were a fraction of what they currently are in California, only a small percentage of the population had yet to be exposed to Covid, and there was no vaccine available, to say there is an argument NOW to be made for continuing restrictions on a population approaching 90% vaccination rate is either stupid or sophistry. 
     

    Edit Total ICU numbers are up. I was mistaken there. It means nothing in a vacuum. If you think it does you are ignorant or stupid. I don’t think you believe it means anything. Hence sophistry

    • Hook 'Em 8
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