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heso

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Everything posted by heso

  1. I’ve seen a lot of anti bob Casey ads recently. Probably the second most common political ad I’ve seen for the last week or so. After anti Kamala ads.
  2. The constant barrage of political advertising I see in PA says that both campaigns know this as well. Watching football is a beating. Every single commercial break has at least one political ad. The overwhelming message from the Trump campaign is that illegal immigrants are ruining everything, inflation is all Kamala’s fault, and she’s soft on crime. That’s it. That’s the extent of their message. Some form of that on repeat. Also sort of interesting to see that 1 campaign sends a mailer 2-3 times a week while the other campaign hasn’t sent me a single one. Edit to add that some portion of Trumps advertising also claims that he total has absolutely nothing to do with project 2025.
  3. I don’t think this is all that surprising. Trump was giving up on everything other than PA and GA, while not expecting that NC was in play. in his calculus, he had to win PA and GA, thought that the rest of the blue wall was already lost, and that NV and AZ didn’t matter. Thats still the only path to victory for him. Win all 3 of NC, PA, and GA. Lose any of those and the election is lost for him. The polls show it that way too. He’s most likely already lost the rest of the blue wall and the western states don’t matter. Kamala has to try to win everything that’s in play outside of those 3 to make it so that unless Trump can win or cheat his way to all 3 of those, she wins.
  4. Wordle 1,165 6/6 ⬛⬛⬛🟨⬛ 🟨🟨⬛🟨⬛ ⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  5. Wordle 1,164 4/6 🟩🟩🟩⬛🟩 🟩🟩🟩⬛🟩 🟩🟩🟩⬛🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  6. I turned 40 this year. Thank you all for making me feel young.
  7. Wordle 1,163 5/6 🟩🟨🟩[emoji834]🟩 🟩[emoji834]🟩[emoji834]🟩 🟩[emoji834]🟩[emoji834]🟩 🟩[emoji834]🟩[emoji834]🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  8. They need to tune their model. There shouldn’t be any scenarios where Trump gets 532 or Harris gets 496.
  9. My concern in PA with the switch from Biden to Kamala is that the latent racism and misogyny in a portion of the old white dems lowers turnout. There’s a house I drive by when I go get tacos for lunch that has had a Biden Harris sign for like 6-8 months. Since the house next door has blossomed into full maga regalia. Last time I drove by the Biden sign is gone with nothing replacing it. Obviously just a single observation that likely means absolutely nothing. But my fear is that PA doesn’t come through for Harris the way it did for Biden. It was clear that enthusiasm for both old men was way down across the board. I’m hopeful that there a lot of people that haven’t yet formed an opinion of Kamala. Hopefully they were watching last night. That first debate could absolutely sway the battleground states significantly. The Trump campaign knows that which is why they were trying hard to get a Fox News debate out in front. I fully expect him to host a town hall on Fox and then say “well since she didn’t come to the one on Fox, I’m not going to the abc one.” Im not sure how real any of my concerns with PA should be, vs just irrational fear.
  10. Starting to see Harris Walz yard signs in my very purple PA suburb. there’s a handful of trump flags that are out year round, but not much in the way of new enthusiasm yet. In 2020 the two guys across the street from me had a slowly escalating Trump v Biden sign/flag battle. By November team Biden had flags hanging from the entire length of his 40’ deck. So far nothing from either side there.
  11. Been pushing hard to lead into the trip with mid pines or pine needles (or both) plus Tobacco Road, but I’m meeting surprising resistance to playing 36 three days in a row.
  12. I drove from Pittsburgh to Harrisburg and back last weekend. I’m not sure how much of it is my optimism, but I couldn’t help but feel like enthusiasm for Trump seemed down. Even driving through Carlisle, which was hosting some kind of truck nationals, I saw plenty of small dick trucks but not a single maga tank.
  13. That was my response when I found out what courses we are playing.
  14. Every Trump ad is trying to portray Kamala as weak on the border. In Pennsylvania… The last one was an ER nurse claiming that illegals are clogging up the ERs decreasing the quality of care and driving up cost. And it’s all Kamala’s fault.
  15. Watching the Olympics and every single commercial break switches between an ad for Harris and one for Trump.
  16. Same here in PA. I remember being surprised when I found out schools everywhere didn’t give kids the first day of deer season off because so many people would be out.
  17. Pinehurst trip for next summer officially on the books! 2, 3, 4, & 8. Trying to talk at least some of the boys into going down a day early and doing Tobacco Road and mid pines.
  18. Can someone explain internal polling to me? Why is it different than public polling and how is it more/less accurate than typical public polling data?
  19. First two paragraphs from the top story on my news feed this morning “Tim Walz Military Record Under Scrutiny” They are trying to learn hard into this angle because it’s all they’ve got.
  20. Walz! LFG! Harris picks Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, AP sources say
  21. Hopefully all of the potentials have their calendars cleared so they can all be at the event introducing the pick to voice their support for the ticket to their individual constituents.
  22. The delusion from the other side:
  23. 192 oz of beer or wine per purchase. They basically made it so gas stations that had food prep and seating could get a restaurant alcohol license. Which is a separate license from a beer distributor license that can sell any amount of beer, or a winery license that can sell any amount of wine. Liquor still only sold by the state.
  24. We can buy beer in gas stations here now!
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