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Everything posted by HookEm
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SMH. Iβm not supporting Terry. To be clear, I wish we hadnβt hired him and donβt think he will ever be very good. But there is no need to have revisionist history. Just go look at threads from a year ago. It is possible to give Terry a lot of credit for last year and also think we made a mistake in hiring him.
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The level of doom and gloom around here was off the charts in December and January. Every game was followed by Derka posts showing how our defense was falling off a cliff. The negativity really picked up after K-State worked us at home, a full month after Beard was arrested. It all peaked in February when we lost 4 of 6 and narrowly avoided a 5th loss, again to OU. The program was absolutely a mess for those 2+ months. Then we beat Kansas at home and got hot in the Big 12 tourney. But things were pretty bleak in February.
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Texas (+4.5) @ Texas Tech- Tuesday, 8pm on ESPN
HookEm replied to shadow_operative's topic in Basketball
Or maybe Tech was looking ahead to its Super Bowl on Saturday? -
The season could still swing wildly with 4 games to play. Based on the Massey probabilities: 0-4: 3% 1-3: 20% 2-2: 45% 3-1: 25% 4-0: 7% At 8-10 we definitely get in, regardless of the Big 12 tourney. At 7-11, it is definitely dicey. Probably no better than 50/50 in that case and we would definitely have some work to do in the Big 12 tourney. Still, if those odds hold that gives us over 80% chance to make the tourney. At that point, we could bow out in round 1 or make a deep run.
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We probably would have started 3 guards from day 1 if Love would have come here. Hunter + Abmas + Love + Mitchell + Disu would have been interesting.
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The program was certainly in a mess when RT inherited it. Rice... RICE took us to overtime in his first game. And we barely beat OU, who had a losing record. The team was reeling and it looked like the wheels were about to fall off. Then the ship got righted and the team kept improving through the end of the season. Many want to credit Beard for the culture, but all that was gone in the month following his arrest. RT deserves a lot of credit for not jacking with the rotations, including having Sir'Jabari coming off the bench. I thought a lot of his game management and play calling was very good at the time. Disu also showed a ton of improvement over the course of the season. Some of that could be getting healthy, but his actual game also improved - including his little push shot in the lane. I thought in the offseason that the Frank Haith hire was great. Turns out, maybe it wasn't. And maybe losing Donewald hurt more than I thought at the time.
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I recall us being one of the finalists for his services. Thought most here were cool on the idea. He definitely would have been a better add than Horton.
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Buying tickets to 1st and 2nd round tourney games - advice?
HookEm replied to Hornin04's topic in Basketball
For tournament games, it is insanely easy to "upgrade" your tickets by moving into sections vacated by teams that just played. Just pay attention during the game to see where they are sitting. I would get the cheapest nosebleed seats available and then move down to better seats. For the S16 and E8 games last year, we were basically on the 3rd row at the FT line. -
Either way, Texas isn't firing RT this year. And if we miss the tourney this year AND follow it up with a 12 win season next year, I'm still not SURE we fire him.
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Correct. He isn't going anywhere for a while. This season, while a disappointment, is nowhere close to the worst seasons of Shaka and even Barnes. It would take a lot more than this to get him fired.
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You have to hand it to Texas Tech, they have a decent hit rate with hoops coaches over the last 30+ years. And when they miss, they seem to move on from it quickly. Bob Knight - Great hire. Made them relevant and won 20+ games every year Pat Knight - Bad hire, but fired after 3 years Billy Gillispie - Great hire. Could have been one of the best coaches in the Big 12. But that alcohol tho Tubby Smith - Good hire. Previous NCoY winner. Won Big12 CoY. But on tail end of his career Chris Beard - Great hire. Stole him from UNLV. Mark Adams - Bad hire (who still got them to the Sweet 16), but they moved on quickly Grant McCasland - Seems like a great hire
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You conveniently forgot his time at UNLV in his bio. He was winless there. WINLESS!!!
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Out of curiosity, what did the Tark years look like?
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Back in 2016, Terry had Fresno at 25-10, they won their conference tourney and they made it to the NCAA tourney. Fresno has only made the tourney three times in the last 40 years. Once in seven years by Terry and twice in seven years by Jerry Tarkanian. Even a Hall of Fame coach like Tark couldn't get them into the tourney without landing them on probation.
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I was looking at historic Massey rankings today. I realize they aren't perfect, but they are at least objective, free and easy to access. Anyway, I pulled the final Massey ranking each year going back to the start of the Barnes era. Here they are with the years ranked best to worst. Barnes 2006 β 5 2003 β 6 2008 β 8 2011 β 9 2004 β 11 2000 β 12 2010 β 20 2009 β 21 2001 β 22 2007 β 23 2012 β 27 2005 β 27 2015 β 28 2002 β 29 2014 β 34 1999 β 49 2013 β 86 1998 β 95 Shaka 2021 β 18 2019 β 25 2018 β 31 2016 β 32 2020 β 39 2017 β 62 Beard 2023 β 7 (Partial Year) 2022 β 20 Terry 2023 β 7 (Partial Year) 2024 β 25 Some takeaways.... We are currently 25th. The median season rank since 1998 is 25. The average season is 28.6. So this terrible season from Terry is actually slightly better than our average for the last 26 years - at least from a computer ranking perspective. Also Terry's first full year really isn't that far off Beard's first year and is considerably better than Barnes' first couple of years. I realize they all started in different places, but it isn't like any of them fielded a top-10 team their first year. I appreciate that we all have higher expectations for this program than what we have averaged, but I still thought it was interesting to have a historical reference. And to be clear, I'm not using this to say that RT is an awesome coach.
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I like Weaver better than Horton by a huge margin, but if we are going to advance in the tourney we will need Horton. I have to believe he is better than he has played for us this year. And nobody could hit anything on Monday, so I didn't really have a problem with him getting minutes. I just thought they should have come the expense of Hunter. Last 5 games: Hunter - 32.4 min, 35.4 FG%, 26.7 3P%, 8.2 PTS, 4.0 REB, 4.6 AST, 1.6 STL Weaver - 25.0 min, 58.3 FG%, 0.0 3P%, 8.0 PTS 5.0 REB, 1.6 AST, 0.2 STL Horton - 16.4 min, 26.7 FG%, 25.0 3P%, 2.6 PTS, 1.4 REB, 0.4 AST, 0.2 STL - Dude is just playing BAD. Overall, with the exception of Horton, I like the fact that RT seems to know who his best players are, and tends to keep them on the court. Abmas absolutely has to stay on the floor, and he is averaging 37 mpg in conference. Disu... if he isn't in foul trouble (big if), should also be getting 30+ min. Mitchell has been getting 32 mpg in conference and he is critical, being really the only guy on the team who rebounds consistently well. The delta in quality between the starters and the bench is just massive.
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He was a starter last year and we were a Brock over the back call from making the Final Four. If we got there (in Houston), all bets are off. We probably would have been favored to win the whole thing. And the year before that he was a freshman starter on an Iowa State Sweet 16 team. Hunter has his flaws, but he absolutely could be the starter on a great team if he has the right pieces around him. Abmas isn't a perfect fit. And when we go small, Weaver isn't either. But Tre Johnson might be a really good fit at SG/SF. And maybe Weaver will get there with another year.
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I think most of us realize how important the coach is. That is why it was so devastating when Beard fucked up. It was literally my worst moment as a sports fan. I have said many times that we are never going to get a coach better than him again. He was the perfect coach in the perfect situation. And in a vacuum, not a single one of us would have hired RT. If he was still at UTEP when the job came open he wouldnβt get a single phone call. Everyone acknowledges this. But that wasnβt the situation. There was no way we werenβt hiring him after the job he did last year. You can debate how much he was responsible for our success, but he was getting the job. And he is going to be in the job for at least 2-3 more years. Maybe longer. I donβt think many people are blind to who RT is. He isnβt a top-10 coach. Or a top-25 coach. But he might be a top-10 recruiter. And we might have a top-10 staff. And he has the resources of the 1,000 pound gorilla of college athletics in a time when we can flex all of our power. So I doubt we are going to suck much more than we do this year even with his flaws. And the season isnβt over yet. The team could very well make a run. [emoji2369]
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Wait a second... are you saying that Abmas is better than any player we lost last year? Carr, Rice, Allen, etc? But those guys were recruited and developed by BEARD! It seems impossible that RT could recruit someone who is even better than the guys portal master Beard brought in!???
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Now show last year.
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I think I just have an over-sensitivity to forecasts of roster doom in the NIL era. The game has changed from what it was just 3-4 years ago. We could turn over the ENTIRE roster and still go get plenty of talent. None of us know what it is going to look like. But I am willing to bet that this coaching staff (and boosters / administration) will do what is necessary to go get some good players. Now, whether this staff can develop them into an elite team is another topic entirely.
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In fairness we were all in euphoria
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I wouldn't expect you to understand the reaction, but I will try. Negative people are a beating, but they rarely realize it. Whether at work, at home, in social circles, on message boards, among fellow fans, wherever. People with a pessimistic outlook try to infect everyone else with their negativity. By definition, it is a drag because that is exactly what the negative person is trying to do: drag down their optimism and convince them that the future is bleak. And it is often done with a smug attitude that they are the only enlightened ones who have a realistic view, or who are smart enough to understand what is going on. They simultaneously make others feel stupid while also tearing down their hopeful view. Do you think people will react in a cheery manner? Nope. It is a beating. I admit I have been wrong before about our prospects, thought I still contend that some of the Shaka teams were pretty unlucky. The team you mentioned lost 14 games by 10 points or less. We had the talent to be better and I always thought Shaka would revert back to his winning style (which he eventually did at Marquette). Whatever. You have been wrong before as well. We could very well add two top-10 portal players to the roster. We will likely have two top-6 HS recruits starting. We will potentially have two upper-class guards. Who knows. Or maybe we will just backfill everyone with players like Horton and Onyema and win 10 games next year. My point wasn't that we will be great. My point is that we won't know until July-August.
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Wow, is it already time to start fretting about NEXT year? My goodness what a beating to be so pessimistic. I thought everyone learned last year not to worry until like August. The losses last year were much more significant than they will likely be this year. We lost Carr, Rice, Allen, Bishop, and Morris. That is 3 starters and two key role players. Then we had the very late, surprise recruiting loss of National #2 Ron Holland and #24 AJ Johnson. And capped it off by losing 4-star Brumbaugh. Holy shit. The fact that we even have a somewhat competent team this year should tell you that RT is pretty decent in the portal. To summarize, last year we returned: Disu, Hunter, Mitchell, Cunningham and Anamekwe. Everyone was freaking out. We literally returned only ONE guard... and a flawed one at that. So, RT went out and got the #1 guard in the portal in Abmas. This year we could return: Hunter (80%), Mitchell (80%), Weaver (95%), Shedrick (90%), Onyema (90%), Johnson (50%), Pryor (70%), Anamekwe (50%). We are bringing in one elite recruit and another solid one. I think the team will look like this: PG - Hunter - The complaints are justified, but he is playing better this year according to almost every measurable stat. PER, TS%, eFG%, PTS, AST, STL. If he stays, he will continue to get marginally better. And we are still talking about a senior, 3-year starter on a S16 and E8 team (plus whatever we do this year) SG - Weaver - Already good and improving. Has the potential to be great. The athleticism is there. The shot is clean. I will be surprised if he doesn't make a moderate leap. G/F - Tre Johnson - National Top-5 HS Player. Great scorer off the dribble and from 3. Good rebounder. Could be really good. Will give us size on the perimeter we are missing this year. PF β Dillon Mitchell - Should continue to improve. Hopefully we see a shot start to develop C - Elite Transfer. Hopefully someone on the level of a Hunter Dickenson or Kel'El Ware. Time to open the checkbook. -------------------------------------------------- G - Elite transfer who might end up starting depending on how good he is. C - Kaeden Shedrick - Another year of continuity and hopefully a lack of injuries could help him PG - Chris Johnson - TBD. If he stays, I would expect him to be marginally improved. SG - Cam Scott - Should be a role player SF - Devon Pryor - Enrolled early, so he is more like a true freshman who got the benefit of a year of college level training. Doubt he does much for another year. PF - Ze'Rik Onyema - Don't think he will ever be more than a 10 mpg spot defender There is still more talent on this roster than most. You have two National top-6 HS recruits starting. Plus a handful of other top 30-50 players. The guards will be upper-classmen. All of this and we will be in the SEC, which should be considerably easier.
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