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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by The Dog

  1. 2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

    Two things can be true at the same time.  Polls can be broken, and Democrats can be expected to overperform in special elections that are (almost by definition) low-turnout affairs.  So when I say "A Democrat should be expected to significantly overperform in a low-turnout special election," it is not responsive to that point to say "but the polls are fucked up."

     

    And by the way, that's particularly true of polls in a late-March special election.  All of the difficulties of polling a nationwide election are magnified when your constituency is so small.  How the fuck do you get a decent sample when an Alabama House district only has 42,000 residents?

    I think it's because we're looking at yet another data point in a long line of others since the Dobbs decision (and other stuff). The fact she won isn't the shock - it's the margin. 

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  2. 10 hours ago, BamaATL said:

    Just for clarity, this is suburban Huntsville area.  As above noted, this is a large scale upset.  

    Huntsville is also home to a lot of DoD and NASA contractors - not exactly a bastion of hillbillies. These are the kind of voters who reliably voted GOP for decades that Trump has lost. 

    2 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

     

    I looked at Sabato's feed and he's been calling bullshit on the polls for a while. He's pretty much the gold standard when it comes to this stuff.

    Nothing is guaranteed ever but at this point is hard to ignore the canaries in the mines are screaming.

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  3. 2 hours ago, Vic Mackey said:

    If you are telling your almost 10 year vet that you need to "prove it", that speaks wonders to how much they don't believe in him. Time to move on if thats the case.

    If that's the case then the smart move is to cut him or trade him with a post 6/1 designation - although the 2025 dead money hit is the same it does save Dallas $29 million in cap this year with a $26.5 million dead money hit.

    again, not as punitive as Wilson with Denver but if you're going "all in" on a rebuild it's the right thing to do. 

    I sure hope this is what Jerry does because there are a LOT of teams that would pay Dak for his services. 

  4. Quote

    Kari Lake has filed a motion today conceding that she is liable in a defamation lawsuit filed by Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer. Richer sued Lake for her lies about his handling of her election for governor of Arizona in 2022. 

    Lake has asked that the case immediately proceed to the damages phase of the case to have the jury determine how much she has to pay. She likely took this action because she knew she was going to lose this case and didn't want an ugly and public trial on liability in the middle of her campaign for Senate.

     

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    • Haha 5
  5. 42 minutes ago, tokamak said:

    NFL contracts and salary cap considerations are way over my head, but my reading of the situation is that we've been kicking the can down the road for years with Dak's contract(s) but you can only do that for so long before you eventually have to eat shit one year. So the Joneses have decided to eat shit this year and hit the reset button on the team's salary cap situation. I'm sure they feel like they can beat other offers if they really want to re-sign him after this year.

    IIRC there's also a dead money hit in 2025 if they don't re-sign Dak. Not as punitive as Russell Wilson at Denver but it's significant.

  6. 39 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

    They were. The people missing are the road work crew. Two found, several still missing.

    Because it happened at 2am and there was construction going on, which enabled closure to traffic very quickly when the ship put out a mayday.

    Well, I'm going to hell.

    r/AFCNorthMemeWar has a few more:

    image.png.89699162f0edc625905d6290111f4d72.png

    image.png.207c39e696b321f758361dc2980504ab.png

    image.png.f89619d8c2a2f336e35b4a63a7d4eaba.png

  7. 16 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

    That would be giving up field posiiton....

     

    IMO the most strategic thing would be to kick the ball as high as possible and pin within the 20

     

    it's lowest risk with a guaranteed outcome. it's why teams kept kicking the ball out of the end zone in the first place. 

    also, teams would have to allocate practice time to prepare to do that. you only have to practice returns in the event a team actually kicks to you. 

    Much easier to just gameplan to defend from the 30 every time. 

    However, if a team were to try to maximize field position the best option IMHO is get good enough at squib kicks that they roll into the end zone away from the returner. Since there are no touchbacks the returner has to bring it out or else it's a safety. That would be the most aggressive play. 

  8. get ready for every drive to start at the 35. 

    NFL head coaches are so risk averse and resistant to change that they'll just give teams the additional 15 yards. 

    remember the NFL moved the XP line back for kicks to encourage teams to go for 2. so of course NFL head coaches kept kicking instead. 

  9. Keep in mind there's a reason most of these teams are drafting early and it isn't because they make good decisions. ;)

    Chicago is kind of the exception thanks to that ridiculous trade with Carolina. I have a feeling we'll be seeing the Panthers picking early for many years to come.

  10. 19 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

    is there some chance part of this is to try to catch him in (another) lie? like one he can't walk back? I dunno. Still feels like he is yet again getting off easy.

    yes because the court monitor was left in place at Trumpco - he's already trying to move his HQ to Florida in order to run from this. 

    • Haha 1
  11. 50 minutes ago, troph said:

    I don't know DJT's actual financial position, but I find the order to be a bit difficult - you need to make a $175M undertaking (which by most standards means posting a bond), but you can't go to a NY institution to get it.  So while they should not change the order, I think providing more time seems reasonable because of a lack of liquid assets (or an unreasonable/uncomfortable reduction of liquid assets) on the defendant's part and no access to NY lending institutions per the order. Without some leniency here it looks like a forced failure to comply that has nothing to do with politics but a shitty order by the court.  Courts want compliance, they don't want non-compliance. if the order makes compliance hard on the face of the order, the court is going to be sympathetic to a solution, especially if it's only time.

    Rubin was wrong - he can get a loan from a NY-based lender. 

    The challenge is the size of the bond itself and his lack of collateral to back it. Even this reduced bond will be difficult for him to post.

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  12. 5 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

       

    image.png

    good grief what a word salad.

    anyway the appeals court's ruling likely indicates that they are going to reduce the amount of the judgment. I believe @TwiceHorn has mentioned this. 

    and as I said earlier he struggled to get the $93 million bond for Carroll so I'm skeptical that he'll be able to get this one even with the additional time. He just doesn't have that much money.

    also, I think if a foreign agent was willing to float the cash then he'd have posted the bond already.

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