Jump to content

Woland

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    660
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by Woland

  1. Agreed.  There's very little state intervention in the primary process and even less federal. The state secretary of state or similar election official requires the party to put a candidate on the ballot by a certain time for the general election and that's about it. That doesn't mean that this Supreme Court might find a way, but they'll have to discard a lot of existing law to do so.

    Maybe that will be the point we discard SCOTUS decisions. If the Judicial Branch is going to ignore the law, why should the other two branches follow it?
    • Hook 'Em 5
    • Like 3
  2. We splurged on Swiss Passes. I doubt we broke even dollar wise, but the convenience was great. I bought second-class cabin passes because of the cost but there is a benefit to second-class...you don't have to obtain tickets to reserve your seat. For second class, you just hop on any transport and they check your passes after you are on your way.

     

  3. 1 hour ago, bolverk said:

    I don't live in either the Houston area or DFW, but I'm hoping to see Collin become like Fort Bend in that the diversity effect tips the scales. I understand conservatives are moving into the northern parts of Collin, but what's going on in Plano and Allen? 

    Plano and Allen are becoming more diversified, but much of that growth comes from south Asian immigrants. During the last election cycle, there were south Asians running for offices as conservatives.

  4. 35 minutes ago, bolverk said:

    A quick comparison of these maps gives us a rough idea of how far we must go to flip Texas.

    These seven counties represent a tiny bit over half of Texas's population: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant, Travis, Collin, and Denton. Texas would flip if turn-out were equal across every county and every voter in each county voted according to its color.

    image.thumb.jpeg.a6a6ced4d5c3e3ee4777ab506e664654.jpeg

     

    Of course, it doesn't work that way because the vote in Texas's rural counties is so lopsided that it's common to see 80% Republican vs. 20% Democratic, whereas the largest counties are in the 55-75% range for Democrats (plus Collin and Denton haven't flipped yet).

    Below is the 2020 presidential race. The blue counties are where Biden got over 50%. The lavender ones are where Biden got the plurality (more than Trump but a smidgeon less than 50%).

    image.thumb.jpeg.76a6ceecf67f6831eccd6e96845cc1dc.jpeg

     

    It goes without saying, but the Democrats need to solidify their gains in Tarrant and Williamson counties and continue to chip away votes in Collin and Denton counties. My gut tells me Tarrant will continue to be tight because the northeastern part of that county is like ground zero for a lot of the worst of MAGA. On the other hand, I do want to believe that Collin is gettable with the population surge it's experienced in the last few years from a very racially and ethnically diverse population: lots of new East and South Asians. I don't know about Denton. It's getting closer, plus it has a large college student population, but I feel that it probably needs another election cycle or two.

    Then, there's the problem of eroding support among Hispanics in South Texas, where they've been trending more Republican. I think part of that in 2020 can be attributed to an increase in oil and gas jobs, especially in the upper parts of the Valley, and the fear-mongering Republicans do to tell that industry's workers the Democrats are coming for their jobs. There are also the likely contributing factors of folks wanting to pull the ladder up behind them as it relates to border issues, along with some machismo support for Trump and traditional Catholic opposition to abortion.

    Democrats have to figure out a message that can blunt those concerns/issues in South Texas. Maybe after four years of Biden, the O&G guys aren't so fearful of their jobs being taken away. Maybe Trump's bullshit he-man act has worn off. Maybe people are questioning the more draconian effects of losing their right to choose. Maybe I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, and they're getting more dug in on those issues. I just don't know.

    I'll end with one final map. This one shows where TWO-THIRDS of Texas's population lives. Win these, and Texas will be blue for the foreseeable future. As others have said, Montgomery is a fool's errand. Brazoria likely is, too, but Bell County is closer than most realize.

    image.thumb.jpeg.5168048e5555fe759d04cc61502b6a4e.jpeg

     

    The path is clear but not easy:

    • Hold South Texas and the Valley.
    • Solidify gains in the booming burbs, especially in North Texas.
    • Somehow, offset the votes you'll never get in Montgomery.

    Jefferson (Beaumont/Pt. Arthur) and Nueces (Corpus Christi) were close: 49% for Biden in the former and 48% in the latter. A strong labor message to those county's throngs of unionized industrial workers might do the trick, which could also happen to help make gains in Brazoria and Galveston.

    If you squint, you can see it.

    I live on the Mckinney/Melissa line in north Collin County and my observation is the northern suburbs are are being populated by MAGA transplants. On the positive side, the population is also becoming more diverse so I hope that is a good counter to all the conservative Californians moving in.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  5. Just now, David Dennison said:

    So they just let two people die for a photo op?

    Or are those people not really dead and the entire law enforcement apparatus is in on it?

    Of did a known narcissist stand up like an idiot during an attempt on his life because he couldn't help himself?

    Never let a failed assassination attempt go to waste. However, when you help build a conspiracy culture, sometimes it comes back to bite you in the ass.

    • Hook 'Em 4
    • Like 2
  6. not that it's going to do much (the record is there) but I'm strongly considering going 100% dark on social media. deactivating and deleting my insta/fb accounts. I really am only using fb for a few groups and it's been a long while since I posted political stuff on fb - like years. but still having a digital footprint seems like a terrible idea these days.

    Living in north Collin County, I will be a bit worried about local low-IQ MAGA.
  7. I’ve been to Disney World close to 40 times with school groups, exchange students, nieces, and adult only trips. Without kids - everyone is a fucking adult and can take care of themselves if they want to go off on their own. And not being in the Surly 1%, my wife and I can afford to pay for lots of service upgrades. I would not want to take kids to a 2 1/2 hour meal at Jaleo. And when it poured rain, it was easy to just hang out in a bar.

    • Like 1
  8. When seizing power, isn’t the usual play to declare a state emergency? Then everything is official business. If you follow the Putin example, one of your first moves is to fire all the state governors and appoint new ones.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  9. I returned from Disney World two weeks ago. The wife had a conference in Orlando so much of that part of the expense was paid for. I and two friends flew out of DFW the last day of her conference and we spent four days in the parks. No children were a part of this trip. We were there during the passage of a tropical depression. We would not return in June unless there was some sort of deal.

    Resort - We stayed at our go-to Port Orleans French Quarter. Most everything was great. I still don't like the renovation of the bar, but we were able to to get our drinks to go and sat out by the pool and the canal. The water level in the canal was too low so we could not take the boat to Disney Springs.

    Disney Springs - Our first night we did the tasting menu at Jaleo and it was excellent. Although we did not make reservations for the drone show, we were allowed to go out on the patio and watch. I recommend the drone show. We returned to Disney Springs a couple of nights later and ate at the Boat House which was great.  We enjoyed drinking at the bar on the pier while waiting on our table (and waiting out a rain storm). 

    Magic Kingdom - Only a half-day here. Tron was great. The dessert party for the fireworks continues to decline, but the evening show is the best at Disney World. If you opt for the dessert party, go in knowing your money is going for good seats for the show and the desserts are an after-thought.

    Animal Kingdom - We did Avatar twice. Satu'li Canteen was good park food. We used to be regulars at Tiffin's, but we had a bad experience two trips ago and my wife refuses to return. We ate in Disney Springs that night. We also didn't go back to the Lion King Show as during our last trip it was a shell of its former self. We are looking forward to the re-theming of Dinoland.

    Epcot - Guardians of the Galaxy is the best ride at Disney World now. We ate  Le Cellier for lunch and it was great... I wish they had a lunch menu. We had reservations at The Rose and Crown for the evening show. I am not a fan of the new show and The Rose and Crown was disappointing.  We had an obstructed view of the show, the food was average, and so was the service. No one should go to Epcot and not listen to the Voices of Liberty.

    Hollywood Studios - Our group enjoyed this park the most. We had never road Slinky Dog and did it twice (probably wouldn't go out of my way to ride it again). We did Rise of the Resistance twice and Smuggler's run three times. By our third time on Smuggler's Run, we were killing it on the score. Everyone agreed that we wanted to spend more time in Galaxy's Edge next trip. Oga's was a disappointment. We were given a standing table which sucked after walking all day and the drinks were also average...I'm confident that I got the same drink at a counter service restaurant the next day. 

    We did Happy Limo from the airport to the resort and back. I highly recommend their service.

     

  10. On 5/25/2024 at 12:43 PM, HenryJames said:

    Niece starts post grad at ETH Zurich in the fall so I’ll probably be going to Switzerland in the next year or so. 

    So what is there to do after I get tired of staring at mountains?

    Plenty of towns, villages, and chateaus to explore. Museums (if you like watches, go to the Patek Philippe museum in Geneva). Drink beer in cafes and enjoy the weather. Take a boat ride on Lake Geneva.

  11. People use that line but the pandemic would've destroyed anyone's economy. Obama's, Clinton's, W's. But some people get all warm and fuzzy remembering the pre-2020 economy under Trump when goods and services were cheaper. Liberals have got to stop burying their heads in the sand on this economy. Data wise, it's improved but consumer wise, it hasn't. Groceries are still expensive, car loans and credit card loans are more now because of the Fed rate hikes, meals out cost more. That's all things that hit people in their pocketbooks and Biden, rightly or wrongly, takes the blame as Carter did and Bush Sr did. This administration has incredibly shitty messaging on the economy. 

    They remember the pre-2020 economy but also lump into that the 1.50 gasoline during the pandemic.
    • Hook 'Em 1
  12. 2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    So what, they find a bomb that happens to be someplace easily accessible by a dump truck, and then they dump sand on the bomb? Or do they simply drive them near a bomb, and then some cops grab the bomb and then bury it in the sand in the back of a dump truck?

    The answer is actually creating more questions for me. 

    My vast Google knowledge that I have acquired in the last 5 minutes suggests it is used as a barrier that can be rolled quickly into place. Also used to prevent vehicles from driving into protests.

    • Haha 1
  13. 37 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

    A day after Trump issued a call for more supporters to gather outside the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse, the number reached its nadir. The number of identifiable Trump fans across the street in Collect Pond Park on Tuesday sank to the mid-single digits, after hovering at about a dozen for a week.

     

    Trump continues to receive favorable treatment from the New York City Police Department. For a week, a large N.Y.P.D. dump truck has parked in the intersection of Hogan Place and Centre Street, with a uniformed driver sitting inside. Minutes before Trump's arrival each morning, the dump truck has pulled a half-car length forward, blocking news photographers’ views of him entering the side door of the courthouse. And this afternoon, like those before it, the driver did the same maneuver for Trump’s 2:37 p.m. departure.

    Favorable as in preventing photos, or favorable as in preventing an assassination?

     

    • Like 1
  14. Trump pulls down the lapels of his jacket sharply and walks out, again looking frustrated. To me, he’s looked far angrier yesterday and today than he did during all of last week, during jury selection.

    He is angry because he is losing control of the narrative. Defending himself has nothing to do with presenting facts that support his arguments.
    • Hook 'Em 8
    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...