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tbone_

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Posts posted by tbone_

  1. 3 hours ago, Captainant said:

    Yeah, gotta drive some homelessness to really get the goosed rent numbers going, I gotcha. Heaven forbid we have enough housing that everyone can afford to stay in, what a terrible idea

    Median incomes have not doubled in the last decade. Hell, they haven't doubled since the 80s. Despite the "economy" (read: stock market and shareholder value extraction) adding on a few zeros in the same time interval. It's not incomes increasing that's driving the rent increase, it's been illegal collusion via Realpage and the other rent collusion platforms

     

    Edit: just to really drive the point home, the meteoric rent increases STOPPED when propublica published their initial reporting and got DOJ sniffing around in 2022. It lines up quite nicely with your rent increase timeline through 2020-2021

    Ah, my bad. I thought we were having an actual discussion among grown ups using facts. I’ve only been building apartments and houses for nearly 30 years so what do I know.

     

    Carry on with whatever it is you are doing I guess. I’m moving on. 

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  2. 8 minutes ago, Captainant said:

    Well they've nearly doubled over the last decade so I'm not sure if there's any blood left to suck for the landlords

    Actually that’s not true. Incomes have been growing much faster than rents over the last 2 years or so. And they did not double, at least not in the averages. But they did go up a shitload in 2H2020 and 2021 - 20-30% for that period in many markets. Too much for sure.

     

    The issue for falling rents isn’t income. It’s too much supply. But starts have fallen off a cliff recently so the supply is getting absorbed and there won’t be much new supply coming before long. Housing economists are predicting significant rent growth coming in 27/28/29 because of the combination of falling supply and growing incomes.

     

    And oh by the way, we all hear lots of talk these days that we need more housing to bring the prices down. Well guess what gets more housing built? Landlords and their capital partners believing there is blood to suck. Because we live in a world where housing only gets built if people think they can earn more money doing it than in some other endeavor.

     

    You know what isn’t a good environment for new housing to get built? One where new supply is rampant and rents are falling. Weird paradox for sure. 

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  3. Counterpoint - a large portion of the inflation calc is housing costs. All of the housing economists I follow say the calc the govt uses for the housing portion lags way behind or just does not get the housing costs change correct. It’s still going up according to the CPI when me and every other housing developer in the country can tell you that hasn’t been happening at all for the last two years.

     

    If it just lags and finally catches up, it’s going to put significant downward pressure on the CPI calc for a while.

     

    Your eggs and k cups may be going up in costs but rents sure as fuck aren’t. 

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  4. Costco coffee in the big brown can ftw. Who cares if you pour out half the pot every day. It’s so much cheaper than pods and you don’t throw away a billion little plastic cups a year.

     

    Outlaw plastic bags and straws but allow k cups and plastic water bottles by the zillion? Makes perfect sense.  

     

     

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  5. I watched portions of 8-10 college football games yesterday. I’d start every qb I saw over Arch next week. Every one. And I’d probably start the top back up for each of those teams too. Including the Texas and Utep backups. 

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  6. 11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

    We don't have a servicable starter either. This isn't last year where we were getting B-grade QB play from a third year starter and the fans thought the backup who had functionally no college experience could come in and be an A down the stretch playing for championships. We're getting an F right now.

    There is absolutely no way Caldwell, Owens, or Lacey would be this bad. I'd keep Lacey out because I wouldn't be interested in throwing a true freshman to the wolves but Caldwell is an experienced FBS QB and Owens is in his second year in the system. One of them can definitely hit the easy, schemed open underneath/intermediate throws and execute at replacement level in the RPO game. Pair that with this defense and we can at least grind out a 9-3 type year that, while obviously a step back from the past couple years, isn't a setback.

    Right now we're spiraling into the kind of 6-6/7-5, black saturday at the Cotton Bowl kind of territory that cedes some of the ground the program gained over the past few years. There is no downside.

     

    A guy named James Brown beat ou as a true freshman in his first start. Just saying. 

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