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tbone_

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Posts posted by tbone_

  1. Appreciate all the feedback.

     

    For those of you helping plan out our family future, you should probably also factor in that UCSB tuition is literally 10x the alternative. Her scholarship offer results in net annual tuition at U of A of $5k. UCSB is $50k.

     

    I could literally pay for U of A and a Harvard or Stanford MBA for less than the cost of UCSB alone. If she slummed it and went to Michigan or Texas I’d come out $70k ahead.

     

    Or we could use some of the $180k difference to buy a house, start a business or just invest.

     

    It’s a crazy comparison. 

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  2. 3 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

    CJ Vogel

     

    Texas' Roster Release + Week 1 of Practice

    The Texas Football 2025 Spring roster has been updated, creating one of my favorite days of the year when I can sit and scroll down the website while observing weight gains, number changes and acclimating my brain with the early enrollees.

    A few nuggets, I wanted to share from the roster update that I have yet to mention elsewhere.

    – CB Wardell Mack ran with the first team at STAR on Tuesday. Is that a surprise? Perhaps. But to see Mack listed at 212 pounds on the roster update is a tremendous sign for his ability to play near the LOS.

    – On the flipside, CB Manny Muhammad is listed at 178 pounds, down quite a bit from his listing on the fall 2024 roster at 190.

    – I was shocked to see RB CJ Baxter listed at 230 pounds. I wonder if that will be amended by the fall or if that is truly what weight he is at currently.

    – I have noticed Texas likes its linebackers in one of two molds. A bigger body that pushes close to 240 pounds, and a leaner body that closes in around twenty pounds lighter.

    Anthony Hill Jr. | 6–3, 237

    Brad Spence | 6–2, 238

    Bo Barnes | 6–1, 246

    Group two.

    Liona Lefau | 6–1, 218

    Ty'Anthony Smith | 6–1, 220 

    Jonathan Cunningham | 6–2, 190

    Worth mentioning that Trey Moore is listed as a LB, not an EDGE. He is listed at 6–3 and 246 pounds.

    – RB Quintrevion Wisner is listed at 194 pounds, though I remember Tashard Choice telling reporters in Atlanta in December that Wisner was playing at 202 pounds. I was hoping to see a number closer to 210, but perhaps that will come in the summer months.

    – Lightest Players on the Team

    163 – Aaron Butler

    176 – Santana Wilson

    178 – Malik Muhammad

    178 – Daylan McCutcheon

    179 – Caleb Chester

    182 – KJ Lacey

    – Heaviest Players on the Team:

    365 – Josiah Sharma

    353 – Nick Brooks

    352 – Cole Brevard

    352 – Connor Stroh

    350 – Travis Shaw

    ***

    Comparison of 2024 DL to Projected 2025 DL

    From a pure mass perspective, I don't think Texas will be hurting when it comes to bodies on the interior of the defensive line. Now, mass does not correlate to good play nor production, but it is worth pointing out how large the Texas defensive line is.

    2024 Group – Alfred Collins, Vernon Broughton, Jermayne Lole, Bill Norton, Alex January
    Average weight of 318 pounds.
    Average height of 6'4.6"

    2025 Group – Cole Brevard, Travis Shaw, Alex January, Hero Kanu
    Average weight of 332
    Average height of 6'4.5"

    That of course does not include 365-pound Josiah Sharma and 327-pound Myron Charles. Good to see 317 pounds listed next to MelvinHills III as well.

     

    As for the interior of the Offensive Line:

    2024 Group – Hayden Conner (314 at Combine), Jake Majors (305 at Combine), DJ Campbell (330) ... average weight of 316.67

    2025 Group – Neto Umeozulu (327), Cole Hutson (315), DJ Campbell (322)... average weight of 321.33

    ***

    A spring ball nugget.

    – EDGE Colton Vasek is out of a sling. His status to get back on the field this spring remains up in the air, but a step forward in his recovery.

    – Freshman DL Justus Terry battled a strained hamstring on day one, the reason for his limitation in practice.

    I weighed in at 6-1, 246 at my annual physical last month. Too bad I’m out of eligibility. 

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  3. 5 hours ago, LCHorn said:

     

    Judging by stock value, the big guys appear fine or their typical incentive shenanigans have obscured their current performance.  

    You might want to re look at the stock prices of the big publics over the last 6 months.

     

    Also, for what it’s worth the incentives may look like shenanigans to buyers but the accountants and analysts have no problem accurately discerning actual revenue, cost, and margin. And yes, the big publics are in choppy waters right now.

     

    While they may own their own mortgage companies, they are not the investors in those loans, so they are still subject to market forces. Owning the originator may make it easier to execute a rate buy down but the cash to do so still comes straight out of margin.  

     

     

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  4. 43 minutes ago, LTbear said:

    I bought a new Chevy Tahoe last year, one of the higher packages. At just over 10,000 miles, the engine completely blew. Catastrophic engine failure. Got the money back, bought an upgraded 4runner and used the rest on travel. Best decision I ever made.  

    Yikes 

  5. 9 hours ago, Captainant said:

    But I have been assured repeatedly that price gouging never happens

    Whoever told you that is clueless. I work for a company run by people as fair as I’ve ever run across in this industry. We raised rents 30% from mid 2020 to early 2022. Because we could. And we would have been chumps for not doing it. And our partners would have skewered us if we didn’t.

     

    When supply and demand is out of whack, those who benefit bend those who don’t over. This shit isn’t complicated. 

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  6. 10 hours ago, CHIEF said:

    Either interest rates need to drop back down, or building costs will need to come down, that is the only two ways to make homes affordable for young buyers again. Starter homes, in my area, are around $250k. The difference in mortgage payment between 6% and 3.5% is a little over $300/month. That payment eliminates quite a few potential buyers.

    Labor and materials are outrageous right now. I'm not sure labor prices will ever go back down. I have no problem with labor being paid what they should, it lets the construction worker have discretionary income that gets churned back into the local economy. But material costs? Those guys have been around long enough that they are still profitable with prices dropping back into 2010-2018 prices. One of the guys that owns part of our small, local, concrete plants is a friend of mine. He lives in a $2 million house on the river, has about two or three $100k trucks, wife has a $120k car. He bought those when concrete was about $110/yard. Concrete went over $200/yard in our area, and is back down to about $175/yard. When construction nearly slows to a halt, concrete, lumber, and roofing materials will have the room to drop prices drastically and still remain profitable. One of the suppliers is going to have to feel enough pressure to break ranks.

    Personally, I would like to see both a drop in interest rates and material costs come down as well.

    CHIEF

    Dropping rates will make housing more expensive, not cheaper. Might make the payment more affordable.

     

    I’ve been in the housing development business since 1996. Only time I’ve seen costs come down in a meaningful way was 2008. Unless that happens again, we aren’t getting a cost reset. 

  7. That’s because people in the policy space don’t know shit. Allowing more density will help, sort of. But it won’t be any cheaper to build (or rent/sell) And the more you allow the more expensive it will be to build due to constrained supply of labor.  Supply and demand - how does it work? lol

    The cost aint coming down. And neither is the price as long as the capital required to pay for it demands a market return.

    Source: based on my 30 years of experience as a housing developer.

     

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