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40acredropout

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by 40acredropout

  1. So far:

    • Coastal -2.5 @ G State
    • U49.5 WVU @ VT
    • Syracuse -10 vs Virginia
    • Air Force -24 vs Nevada
    • Boise State - 16 @ UTEP
    • Baylor +2.5 @ ISU
    • OU -12.5  vs K State
    • UNLV -3 @ Utah State
  2. Feeling pretty great about the improvement in our pass rush so far.

    Last season PFF gave us the 115th ranked team pass rush grade.  Up to 19th this year.  I went and looked at it on game by game basis and the improvement is impressive.  We doubled our pressure % from 37% last year to 74% this year.  Even more impressive, we generated pressure on Alabama on 59.5% of passes which would have been the 2nd highest rate of any game played in 2021 (Rice was at 81%).

    image.png.a7e541bd301d7c85451dc4726a992aa9.png

     

    • Hook 'Em 4
  3. 32 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    Initial thoughts on the week (1 unit is $25.00 for me). Won't bet all of these but it's my initial pass through before we hammer it out:

    West Virginia (Va Tech) – 3- $25.00

    Central Michigan (Penn State) +26.5 - $25.00

    TCU- (SMU)- Moneyline- $25.00

    Kansas (Duke) -9- $25.00

    Baylor (ISU)- Moneyline  $50.00

    Clemson v Wake Under 55- $50.00

    Missouri (Auburn) +7.5- $25.00

    Tenn (Fl) -11- $25.00

    Domers v UNC- Over 60- $50.00

    Texas -4.5 - $75.00

    Texas -4.5 and under 60- $10.00

    Ole Miss (Tulsa) -20- $25.00

    Oregon (WSU) -6.5 $25.00

    Iowa Rutgers- Under 35.5- $25.00

    Arky Aggy under 48- $100

    Arky money line + under- $25.00

    Arky Money line- $50.00

    KSU- +13 and under 52- $10.00

    USC- -6.5 (Oregon state) $50.00

    Utah- -15 (ASU)- $25.00

    I peaked at lines last night and had same take on TCU, KU, Texas, USC lines.  No super strong conviction on the others.

    You feel strongly on Tennessee?  I'm having hard time getting myself to them beating Gators by 11 just knowing how one sided series has been.  I know that doesn't make a shit and Florida looked like ass last week, I just can't get there in my head.

    On betting Iowa O/U, feels like betting over is the equivalent of trying to throw deep when your QB sucks ass but they're stacking 9 (or 10) in the box on you.  35.5 is such an absurdly low line.  Dating back to 2003, of 14,889 game sample, only 10 games have been at that O/U line or lower.  Offenses have to be putrid for that line to be put out in the first place so I guess it shouldn't be shocking that 7/10 of those games hit the under.  Neither Iowa or Rutgers has shown me anything to feel strongly on the Over, that's just such a low total I can't help but question it.

  4. Just to stir some shit up... 

    https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/odds-movement/ats/results/

    Teamrankings.com has historical line movement dating back to 2008 season.  11,583 games.  Largest movement from opening to close was 8 points which happened only 14 times.  

    This would miss a scenario where a star was injured in the previous game as that injury is presumably baked into opening line of following week.  So dating back to 2008, there hasn't been an instance of a player being unexpectedly unavailable after opening lines were published that resulted in more than an 8 point swing.

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Haha 1
  5. Holy fuck I got my ass handed to me this week lol.  4-10 straight picks, missed my sucker dawg ML parlay as well.  Now 24-25 on the year.  

    Spoiler

    Week 3  (4-11):

    • O47 Air Force @ Wyoming LOSS
    • U58.5 Purdue @ Syracuse LOSS god fucking dammit
    • OU -11.5 @ Nebraska WIN
    • O57.5 Buffalo @ Coastal Carolina WIN
    • O48.5 Tulane @ Kansas State LOSS
    • Nevada +23 @ Iowa LOSS
    • USC -12.5 vs Fresno State WIN
    • Texas -11 vs UTSA WIN
    • U61.5 Western Kentucky @ Indiana LOSS
    • BYU +3.5 @ Oregon LOSS
    • U58 BYU @ Oregon LOSS
    • U47 Colorado @ Minnesota LOSS
    • Michigan State +3.5 @ Washington LOSS
    • U56.5 Michigan State @ Washington LOSS
    • Sucker Road Dawg ML Parlay:  BYU, Michigan State, Miami, Western Kentucky -> $10 to win $506 LOSS

    Week 2 (9-4):

    • Boise State -16.5 @ New Mexico WIN
    • Wake Forest-13 @ Vanderbilt WIN
    • U56.5 Mizzou @ Kansas State WIN
    • WVU -13 vs Kansas LOSS
    • U49 Wash St @ Wisconsin WIN
    • O67 Tennessee @ Pit LOSS
    • U56.5 MTSU @ CS WIN
    • U56 Akron @ Michigan State WIN
    • Notre Dame -20 vs Marshall LOSS
    • U64 FIU @ Texas State WIN
    • U46 BC @ VA Tech WIN
    • BYU -3.5 vs Baylor WIN
    • Texas & App State Big Dick Swinging ML Parlay +8088 RAN OUT OF TIME

    Week 1 (8-9-1):

    • U60.5 LaTech @ Mizzou LOSS
    • O51 WVU @ Pitt WIN
    • Purdue +3.5 v Penn State LOSS
    • O52.5 NMSU @ Minnesota LOSS
    • U51.5 Temple @ Duke WIN
    • Houston -4.5 @ UTSA LOSS
    • BYU -11.5 @ USF WIN
    • U57.5 Troy @ Ole Miss WIN
    • Utah -3 @ Florida LOSS
    • O54 Army @ Coastal WIN
    • Kentucky -16.5 v Miami (OH) WIN
    • Georgia State +12.5 @ South Carolina LOSS
    • Boise State +3 @ Oregon State LOSS
    • Colorado State +31 @ Michigan LOSS
    • UTEP +31 @ OU LOSS
    • UNC ML +125 @ App State WIN
    • U51 Clemson @ GT PUSH
    • Clemson -21 @ GT WIN

    Week 0 (3-1-1):

    • Nebraska -13 v Northwestern LOSS
    • Vanderbilt -8 @ Hawaii WIN
    • U44 Wyoming v Illinois PUSH
    • U50.5 Nevada @ NMSU WIN
    • UNT PK @ UTEP WIN

     

  6. 16 minutes ago, OB3 said:

    Maybe they feel confident that Quinn is gonna be good to go vs tech? So they’ll push Card to play this week 

    This was my first thought.  Or maybe the UTSA hype video put some fear in Sark and he isn't comfortable rolling with Wright anymore.  

    • Haha 1
  7. 13 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

    In my dreams Tech continues to raise their academic profile and somehow Texas pulls along Texas State to be the #3 public academic in the state. I know UTD is doing well but a new system main campus would be awesome. If A&M isn't going to care about being a good school then fuck 'em. I mean the name is Texas State, they need to be better. 

    Where will all the dumb hot chicks go?

  8. 14 hours ago, demos said:


    You could get two at the table then go up to the bar and get two more. And if you had a large group at a table, they either couldn’t or didn’t keep track.

    who that posts on here do you think had enough friends to fill a large table?

    • Hook 'Em 1
  9. Just now, sidis said:

    recalculating......

    iowa is now at....158.0 yards per game (101 yards passing and 57 yards rushing) through two games against south dakota state and iowa state.

    outstanding.

    In last 6 games I believe they have 5 offensive TD’s and 11 turnovers.  Not great.

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