Jump to content

FWD

Burnt Ends
  • Posts

    261
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by FWD

  1. 11 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

    Younger voters and Latino (Hispanic/Chicano) voters are the emerging voters. What the Repubs always feared. 

    The Establishment Dems need to take notice of them - and not marginalize their emergence - especially out West.

    If they show up at the polls today and in other primaries, they will get their guy.

  2. 49 minutes ago, RayDog said:

    The 2018 was a referendum on Trump. 2020 will be a referendum on Trump. Trump has gotten worse on the last two years.

    There is no basis for thinking that Republicans will gain seats. Probably in 2022, but not now.

    You have it backwards. 2018 was a referendum on Trump but in 2020 it becomes a binary choice. 

  3. 2 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

    Okay cool, you want to talk about numbers then you're aware that there has been tons of polling to suggest that Bernie is at worst no better than any of the other nominees to beat Trump. There is no data to suggest that Bernie is going to cause all these suburban moms to suddenly run back to the GOP, a betting line doesn't prove anything lol.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

    My contention in this thread is that many general election swing voters perceive Bernie as an independent and hence moderate, and after 8 months of being told about his extremely unpopular and radical policies, will no longer have that perception. 

  4. 2 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

    First off, this exact opposite candidate of Bernie ran in 2016 and we saw barely any gain in down ballot races. Second of all, acting as if there's this enormous bloc of swing voters that are squishy and voted GOP but switched to Democrats in 2018 and suddenly Bernie is going to scare them away is, at best, bullshit. There will undoubtedly be people who may be turned off, but there is no scenario where the House is going to flip back to GOP or even come close with an energized voting base that Bernie has. This idea of this magnificent swing voters is mostly bullshit anyways, people identify with a party and sometimes they do or they don't come out. Trump being on the ticket is going to motivate a LOT of Democrats to come out regardless of what they think about Bernie, the ones who are suggesting that this isn't going to happen have said that Bernie had no chance in hell at winning the nomination and yet he is the one that keeps rising in the polls.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944

    Prediction markets now give the GOP a 43% chance of retaking the House, this is up from 30% 2 weeks ago.  If Bernie seals the nomination I would bet on even money that Dems lose the House. And just to be clear this is absolutely a nightmare scenario, but Bernie is a disaster candidate if your goal is to hold on to the right-leaning suburbs where Dems made all their gains in 2018.

    • Like 1
  5. 1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

    Yep, which will carry him to a huge victory because his policies fucking rule and are already popular even before getting the full weight of the Democratic Party behind them.

    This is objectively untrue. Bernie has taken a lot of extremely unpopular opinions.

  6. 1 minute ago, GSU&UT said:

    I'm sorry are you actually suggesting that Bernie just simply hoodwinked a ton of people in Nevada without talking about any of his policies? Suddenly the curtain is going to be opened and all these people are going to vote for Republicans? Do you know a single thing about how his campaign operates?

    No, I do not think the people who caucused for Bernie in Nevada aren't going to vote him. This is a small number of people. I am talking about swing voters in the general election and the House races in 2020. Bernie/Dems will be completely crushed in those races.

  7. 5 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

    lol, except polling in Nevada has showed he won over the moderate and more conservative democrats.

    This is exactly my point. The current perception of Bernie is as "an independent" and the guy who took on the establishment Dems in 2016. This perception has a strong appeal to moderates, but it is untenable in the long run. If he gets the nomination people will hear every single day for 6+ months about his actual policies. 

  8. Most Americans still think of Bernie as "the independent that took on Hillary and got screwed". When they hear about how extreme his policies are and how he is way, way to the left of most Democrats, suburban voters who voted D in 2018 are going to run back to the GOP faster than you can believe.

  9. 4 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

    The house isn't getting lost, we just had the highest turnout in 2018 and even if the scary socialist is on top they aren't going to lose a 50 plus margin in the house.

    The Dem House majority is built on the swing of moderate suburbanites from R to D. If Sanders is on the ballot those voters will swing right back from D to R. Any other Dem nominee and the House is safe.

  10. 5 hours ago, gmr548 said:


     

     


    No. Full stop. The Democratic house majority is enormous given the circumstances, the Republicans are panicking because they are getting epicly crushed in fundraising, and Ds have a healthy generic ballot lead. Republican retirements vastly outnumber Democratic retirements. The GOP would pretty much have to win back some seats in CA - even typing that is kind of lolzy. And incumbent Presidents actually haven't provided much of a boost to house races. Even a 16 seat gain matching the GOP gain from Reagan's absolute landslide in 84 wouldn't flip the house. There's very little historical precedent for the Democrats losing the house in this situation. The Republicans know that and are behaving accordingly.

    If, for arguments sake, we accept that Sanders is a liability and likely to cost the party votes vs Trump, I assume you would think those votes are educated suburban whites. Those same people laid waste to the GOP house in 2018 and do not approve of Trump. They've already made it clear that they have decided against full GOP control under Trump. If they did the "hold their nose and vote for Trump bit," I think you'd see a lot of ballot splitting in house races.

    In short, no. I'm sure the Rs will net a gain because of the sheer amount of defense the Ds will be playing. But a Democratic house is the one fairly sure bet in 2020.

     

    Strongly disagree. GOP won the House as recently as 2016 and the Dem majority is based on a lot of small margins in suburban districts that swung in 2018. In Bernie is the nominee those are exactly the districts where his hard left agenda will play the worst. Trump will likely have a GOP House to work with in his 2nd term if Bernie gets the nom.

  11. I've always thought she was the strongest general election candidate and would easily beat Trump, but didn't have a shot to break through in the primary. If she proves me wrong and gets the nomination I will be extremely happy.

    • Like 1
  12. 11 hours ago, Chad said:

    You're talking out of your ass. The lowest Henry has averaged in his career was 4.2 YPC, overall he's slightly below 5 YPC on his career. The last two season's he's evolved into one of the best running backs in the NFL. 28 TD and 2,600 yards for 5 YPC in that span. If he wasn't hard to tackle why'd he run for nearly 200 yards against KC in the first meeting? The only reason Henry was a non factor in the second half was because KC pulled off a time consuming drive of their own, that's when Henry does his most damage.

    He has "evolved into the one of the best RBs" because his offensive line and scheme have improved. The Titans o-line plays extremely well and open up huge running lanes. When Henry gets into the 2nd level of the defense he is very hard to bring down, but if you can get to him near the line of scrimmage he is a below average back. KC showed that if you adjust the defensive scheme to commit to getting to him early he is nothing special. 

     

    Tennessee's real problem is that this cinderella run may cost them in the long-term. Both Henry and Tannehill are free agents, and this late season run could pressure them into signing both with big contracts. In that case, I doubt we will see the Titans in the playoffs anytime soon.

  13. On 1/18/2020 at 10:58 AM, Hagbard Celine said:

    i wrote this at the end of the day on the titians/blackbirds thread...

    ++++++++++

    Derrick Henry carries a wallet that says Badass Mother Fucker.

    You're goddamn right.

    All the rest of this day-after armchair blah-blah means fuckall.

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/rush_yds_single_game_playoffs.htm

    The list of names that have a Top 20 All-Time Postseason performance is informative.

    In the pregame segment for Tennessee/Baltimore, Phil Simms said Henry reminds him of Jim Brown.  Brown only had 4 postseason appearances, but never came close to making the Top 20, much less breaking the 150-yard post-season barrier.  Emmitt, the all-time career postseason yardage leader, never broke 150 yards in the playoffs, which is the line for this list (with 51 total occurrences in NFL history).  Only 2 players appear twice on the Top 20 list.  Terrell Davis did it for the Broncos in 97 and 99.  He also has 2 other appearances on the list, for 4 total, twice as many as everyone else, with the exception of Henry.  A quick search shows 3 or 4 others with 2 appearances on the overall list.   So approximately 80% of the players on this list broke 150 yards one time.  Once.

    The only other player that appears more than twice in the ALL-TIME Top 20 list for ground yards in a playoff game...

    ..... just put up his 2nd & 3rd performances in BACK TO BACK GAMES.

    He is also tied for #46 on the list, having shredded KC for 156 yards 2 years ago, for a current total of 3 postseason games with 150+ yards.

    Derrick Henry.

    The Ent.

    +++++++++++++++++++

    6 days later i'm looking at that -7 line, KC's #29 rank vs. the run this year, the fact that Henry has already busted up KC in the playoffs 2 years ago, Reid's record and history when he gets to this stage, and the fact that Tannehill's wife's sledfeet and reptile metatarsils have basically no connection to Henry's all-universe performances in these playoffs, and i'm saying to myself if i were a betting man no fucking wai would i put money on this game.

    the Chefs have always been my #2.  but no one has shut down The Ent in these playoffs, and until they do, they haven't.

     

     

    Tennessee had a true Cinderella run, but they were bound to come down to earth. Frank Clark was right, Henry is not that hard to tackle. KC showed this holding him to just 61 yards on 22 carries which is closer to Henry's career average then the past couple of games which were complete outliers. 

    Without Henry playing out of his mind the rest of the team, Tannehill especially, looked pretty much average.

  14. 11 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

    I guess we could count the Texas schools the same way...

    TCU - 2014 Peach (W)

    Houston - 2015 Peach (W)

    Baylor - 2015 Cotton (L) & 2020 Sugar (L)

    Texas - 2019 Sugar (W)

    Sorry if I missed anyone

    TCU won the Rose Bowl in 2011, too.

    • Like 2
×
×
  • Create New...