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lemonlime

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Posts posted by lemonlime

  1. 1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

    Oh and more good news.  Abortions are a lot harder to get in many places now so more unwanted children for that fucked up education system to try to make "not dumbfucks"

    Clevon is out there....and he's coming for your soul.  

    That's what they want.  The men enacting these laws know their wives, daughters, and mistresses, will just be able to travel to NY or CA and get an abortion.  But they want more poor people and more crime. The cruelty is the point.  

     

    https://law.stanford.edu/publications/the-impact-of-legalized-abortion-on-crime-over-the-last-two-decades/.    More crime is the goal.  They know legal abortion leads to less crime.

     

    Donohue and Levitt (2001) presented evidence that the legalization of abortion in the early 1970s played an important role in the crime drop of the 1990s. That paper concluded with a strong out-of-sample prediction regarding the next two decades: “When a steady state is reached roughly twenty years from now, the impact of abortion will be roughly twice as great as the impact felt so far. Our results suggest that all else equal, legalized abortion will account for persistent declines of 1% a year in crime over the next two decades.” Estimating parallel specifications to the original paper, but using the seventeen years of data generated after that paper was written, we find strong support for the prediction and the broad hypothesis, while illuminating some previously unrecognized patterns of crime and arrests. We estimate that overall crime fell 17.5% from 1998 to 2014 due to legalized abortion— a decline of 1% per year. From 1991 to 2014, the violent and property crime rates each fell by 50%. Legalized abortion is estimated to have reduced violent crime by 47% and property crime by 33% over this period, and thus can explain most of the observed crime decline.

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  2. 3 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

    That's not what I've been saying at all. Your strawman bullshit is tiring. Again, the whole point is you might not even know is injured. You keep jumping ahead to a point in time where you know all this stuff, but never figuring out how you get there. 

    At least what I've been reacting to in what you're saying, is that you're proactively justifying something that is simply the wrong decision.  If I'm being honest, I don't know how I'd react in the moment with  a stranger shouting they'd been shot, at night, outside my door.  But I'd certainly like to believe that I would do everything I could to help that kid.  And I can't imagine spending pages justifying a hypothetical decision to let a kid bleed out on my lawn.  Regardless of what hypothetical excuses I could dream up.

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  3. 4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

    surely the comparatively restrictive states of california and new york would show better long term homicide rates than something like Texas, or the overall US average, right? right?

    happy to introduce you to the concept of timezones next.

    Not sure if serious.  But yes.  California and NY have lower homicide rates than Texas.  And these charts go back to 2005.

     https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/homicide_mortality/homicide.htm

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  4. What in the actual fuck?  It takes time to decide whether to charge someone with attempted murder who shot a kid in the head twice for knocking on his door.  They know damn well if it was a white kid shot by a black man, the shooter would've been arrested, and sitting. in jail, and  facing a life in prison.

     

    Also, the Clay County Prosecutor Zachary Thompson said Monday that his office is working with police to quickly review the case and determine if the homeowner should be charged.

     

     

     

  5. 17 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

    California has the 7th lowest firearm mortality rate in the country. But you know that. Of the lowest 19 states, only 2--Iowa and Nebraska--have a heavy GOP slant.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/firearm_mortality/firearm.htm

    Less guns in circulation and stricter gun regulations work. We know they work. It's pretty basic math. Anyone trying to deny it is being willfully ignorant, or using some bullshit version of the slippery slope to try to justify anything and everything.

    Bozo's point that it's the Democrats share a large part of the blame for not doing more in states where they have virtually no power--while continuously passing reforms in states that they do--is asinine.

     

     

    This.  I was just looking at those lists and it's striking.  What do 9 out of 10 of the states with the lowest firearm mortality rate have in common?  And what do 9 out of 10 states with the highest firearm mortality have in common?  It's a mystery for the ages.

    That said, I don't know how to separate out how much of that breakdown has to do with gun control laws verses that the bulk of elected reps and the public in those states isn't fetishizing guns, and there aren't large swaths of people too terrified of the world to go for a walk without packing heat.

  6. 4 hours ago, HamsterHookah said:

    I can kinda get what everyone is saying and feeling (here and abroad on reddit and twitter), but this episode didn't do it for me and felt like a slog, which I guess was the entire point with the 27 minute long single shot. Logan dying was inevitable and I do love how they did it off screen and didn't film it happening and the people on the plane trying to save him, but idk-- I've cut family off for way less than what Logan has done all those years so I don't have a ton of sympathy or empathy watching the toxic emotional fall-out when he finally passes and the damaged kids are dealing with it. It was good television but nowhere near "I'll never emotionally recover from this" or "best hour of television I've ever seen" for my tastes.

     

    I think the reality of that is what made it an emotional slog.  How you react when a family member you're estranged from dies, or when you have no fucking clue what to say.  While the extremes Logan went to against his kids are, I hope, not usual, the reactions to the death of someone with whom you have a complicated relationship with, and when you had no chance to repair it, seem much more real to and difficult to recover from in a lot of ways, then the typical tv death scene where a beloved family member dies.

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  7. 1 hour ago, WhatTheBuck said:

    I’ll bet not. NYC went overwhelmingly for Hillary in 2016 outside of Long Island. They know Trump in NYC. They’re not fooled by his bullshit. 

    Do you mean Staten Island?  And Staten Island went for trump.

     

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  8. 6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    Judges are required to consider the assets available to the accused in deciding on bail. What the prosecution asks for isn't particularly relevant to that analysis. We long ago rejected the idea of debtor's prison. And the limitations on bail partly stem from that idea. You can't set a bail amount that cannot be met by the accused. The purpose of the bail system is not punishment, and is not to make sure the person has to stay in jail pre-trial. The purpose of the bail system is to ensure that the accused attends trial. That's it. If you need evidence of that, here is the horse's mouth:

    https://statutes.capitol.texas.gov/Docs/CR/htm/CR.17.htm

    If prosecutors want to argue that an accused should be denied bail entirely, they are free to try and make that showing. But, keep in mind, in Texas (and elsewhere) there is "a rebuttable presumption that bail, conditions of release, or both bail and conditions of release are sufficient to reasonably ensure the defendant's appearance in court as required and the safety of the community, law enforcement, and the victim of the alleged offense."

     

    You're arguing with someone who thinks a successful deflection from his opinion (or support for politicians who hold this opinion) that the government is too incompetent to place restrictions on who can possess weapons of war, should be further entrusted to lock people  who are presumed innocent in jail in government custody before trial.

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  9. 1 hour ago, fattyflattie said:

    I'll see what I can dig up. Was stat from a guest on morning radio show right around the time of the Hildago/whatever Mack's girls name election.  Cant recall which instances were the big publicized at the that timeframe, the old lady had already been robbed and ran over before that, can't recall which instance had them up in arms.  I want to say the # was 442 or 448 on the year. 

    Well, if you're going to quote stats anecdotes, you're aware that in places with cash bail reform there's been no link shown between cash bail reform and recidivism/crime rates?

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  10. On 3/22/2023 at 10:58 AM, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

    I saw that article earlier.  Republicans are idiots.  Good luck getting any talented people to move to these states.  

    That's their goal.  Republicans don't actually give a shit about abortion.  They want to punish women, particularly poor women.   They don't want them to have access to quality healthcare, be it for abortion, pregnancy, oncology, anything.   They want to gut healthcare.  Just look at the right's vilification of medical professionals and science over the last few years as proof.  They want to drive talented people out.

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  11. 7 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

    Wow--you didn't like Cairo?  That's really surprising to me.  Mrs.LL and I loved it.

    Now, as I said before, it may be because we stayed at the Four Seasons.  So we had our little sanctuary to go back to at the end of the day.  And I think there's something to that in a place like Cairo, which is wholly alien and not . . . shall we say diplomatically . . . consistent with our Western standards for cleanliness and hygiene.  

     

     

    Obviously amazing sites in Cairo.  But the air quality was so bad when we there, it was hard to go outside.  I have all these pictures at the Pyramids where it looks like it's a rainy, foggy, overcast day, just from huge amounts of smog.  After I left for Aswan, had a lingering cough for a few days.  But maybe I'm down on it because I really didn't explore much in Cairo.   And our hotel was far from the Four Seasons.  I was just jet lagged, having trouble breathing, and wanted to get further afield.

    Edit to add that I loved the rest of our time in Egypt, but Cairo was difficult.

  12. Any suggestions for what to do with 1-2 days in London?  I've been there before, and have been to many of the touristy things like the Tower and Westminster, but it's been many years.  About to leave on a business trip there, and I'll have maybe a day or so at the end of free time.

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