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Posts posted by TXSooner518
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and yep she was dead 6 days, but he didn't realize b/c Alzheimer's. Also obv didn't realize dog was kenneled. Man God was sure on fire when he decided to include Alzheimer's in the ole grand design.
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5 hours ago, 83Horn said:
Thanks for the responses. Very helpful, and kind of confirms what I was thinking. The only advantage I was thinking of regarding taking a card face up or face down is that the dealer plays first when you take the card face down, and if they bust it no longer matters if you draw a small card. Thanks again.
Well, surely you aren't doubling down on hands that can bust, so whether our hand is revealed before or after the dealer runs out and does or doesn't bust is totally meaningless, at least from a win or lose perspective. You may prefer one way or the other for entertainment/sweat purposes, obv.
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22 minutes ago, immamac said:
Don't play with anyone if you can't handle playing with people.
Lots and lots of people are fine with the social aspect but don't really wanna be a pariah or get yelled at or drunkenly threatened. Go stand at a craps table and yell 7 and explain to everyone that it doesn't actually make 7 out more likely.
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What other people do doesn't make a shit. Every card has an EV regardless of who does what. It doesn't matter if everyone plays the book or not at a table.
This is 100% true but it’s also 100% true that he will at minimum get people pissed off and quite possibly harassed/berated. It’s of course an exercise for the listener to decide how much they care about the irrational emotional reactions of others. -
Can someone explain something about playing basic strategy? I realize that this was supposedly worked out on a computer a long time ago to figure out the best plays to give players the best chance of losing the least amount of money, but I'm wondering if some of the more experienced players on here can share their observations and experience on how well the basic strategy works. I think many players just blindly accept it as "the way" and bet accordingly whether they are winning or losing. The reason I'm asking is that I've noticed that the basic strategy chart says that you always double your elevens. My experience is that this rarely results in a win for the player. The problem I see is that when you double, you are only allowed to draw one card, and my experience has shown that the one card you draw is typically a 2, 3 or 4. The only advantage I can see is to take your one card face down and hope for a dealer bust, which brings up another question. I've seen several other players agonize over whether to take the card face up or face down. I just don't see any advantage to taking the card face up. Am I missing something? Anyway, any advice or words of wisdom regarding basic strategy would be welcome.
Basic strat is mathematically shown to be the highest EV play given a neutral deck. There are more 10 value cards in the deck than 2s, 3s, and 4s combined. The mathematical expectation of a card doesn’t change if it’s face up or face down. -
There's a video with Kattan here, he looks physically uncomfortable, but seems mentally fine: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/video/chris-kattan-snl-50/
Also, I thought dang Cheri Oteri is looking a bit rough until I saw she is 62, and I slipped further into my grave.
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Finally watched the full vid. I never go on the run on her shoes bc I lose 100.0% of the time to the dullard who flats a huge raise out of position with T2o then check jams no pair no draw over a bet into four players and picks up the gutter on the turn. That river is a 3 for me always.
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haha I'm usually the villain here with the "what the fucking fuck" face
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Burnt Bean excellent again today. They had a Barbacoa boudin with a special sauce that was a sweet heat that was really fucking good. Tejano brisket taco, bacon ranch taters, street corn pudding all excellent additions to the Trinity.
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To expound - if our opponent is polarized to strong hands and bluffs, raising is a huge error (unless we think he is over bluffing and we can’t beat a lot of his bluffs).
Imagine a game where there are 3 cards, ace, king, queen. Opp bets. We have king. Whether we should call or fold depends on his strategy with ace and queen. But we should never raise bc he will simply call (or reraise if allowed) with ace and fold with queen.
A bet should always be able to fold out better or get called by worse. I suppose we got called by “worse” but as you note Axss isn’t behind in equity and is the only worse hand that calls.-
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I see on the 1/3, I just think of chops as splitting the equity. Fair!
On the other, if we think he has bluffs, we are just making him fold those by jamming, so I still don’t quite get the “I thought he was bluffing so I jammed” haha. And obv our equity doesn’t change no matter how many times we run it, so I never care what hand they have for that.-
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Nice! Two questions: why do you think you’re only winning the AJ hand 1 time in 3? And why if you thought his 200 on the flop was a bluff would you jam instead of call and let him bluff the rest in on the turn?
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1 hour ago, South Austin said:Bijan's mustard wasn't the only Longhorn product you had in your mouth last fall.
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On 1/18/2025 at 2:13 PM, Steamboat1874 said:
That mustard is badass like Bijan.
Had it on a Fletcher's at the fair last year and it slammed and went hard for sure.
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It isn't a perpetual thing, it was a one-time thing. They don't take any drop for it, it was just room-funded.
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On 2/3/2025 at 1:45 PM, TXSooner518 said:
how many fucking times does this guy have to do shit that people said "oh don't worry he won't actually do that" before you fucking catch on that no one is stopping him? I'm sure you would have said Elon Musk won't be allowed to hack government computers and access everyone's confidential information and hire/fire people and close entire agencies like two weeks ago and yet HERE WE THE FUCK ARE.
Like for example, if I'd said "the next thing he will do is propose that the United States send troops over, level Gaza, and declare it American territory and build resorts there" you would have said "you're being ridiculous"
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14 minutes ago, McCroskey said:
I mean we're so far down the rabbit hole of if/thens, that's why I think this stuff is unlikely. My overall sentiment on Trump pulling this off carries about the same odds of hitting a 28 team parlay. Yeah, January 6th might be the equivalent of the first leg winning but the odds of him winning the remaining 27 legs is near zero, which again is why I don't worry about it. You could drive yourself crazy with all the scenarios.
That's not down the rabbit hole at all dude, that was their goddamn plan. If Congress has the authority to not certify "fraudulent" electors, then if the POTUS and VPOTUS and Congress declare a slate of electors fraudulent, then they are out. If they must approve whatever the State lege sends, then if the state says "we find fraud and we send electors for the other candidate" then that's what they have to send.
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I really like Dan's videos with Iona Stephens also, here is one:
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Incredibly wishful thinking, and lots of people disagreed about Pence's possible role, because the Constitution was not written to conceive of a world where a President cooked up a fraudulent scheme to remain in power.
OK, let's play it from the other side. Say a state actually does send fraudulent electors. Does Congress/VP have to certify those fraudulent electors? Of course not, right? So if Pence/Trump/Republicans in Congress/state houses say that the electors based on Biden's "stolen" election are fraudulent, now what?
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Just now, McCroskey said:
If I may ask...how many congressmen/senators would have had to have been killed on January 6th, or what outcomes from the "invasion" of the Capital would have caused Trump to have peacefully remained in office past January 20th?
I contend there are none. The outcome as happened was bad enough, and had the outcome been worse I believe it would have dramatically changed/accelerated the change in Power within the Executive Branch. I don't see a path where January 6th could have been deemed "successful" in that the insurrectionists gained some modicum of "control" AND Trump somehow stayed peacefully in power past January 20th.
That's why I don't think Trump came close. The attempt is bad enough but in no scenario in my mind does the system we have in place allow him come remotely close to staying in power beyond the limits granted to him in the Constitution.
No one said anything about "peacefully remain". If Mike Pence had refused to certify the election, what would have happened, in your opinion? If states like Wisconsin that went to Biden but had Republican state houses voted to send Trump electors instead, who in your opinion is stopping that?
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18 minutes ago, McCroskey said:
I don't think I understood your question, then. Sorry. Trying to work and keep up here at the same time and not doing a good job of it.
If someone said "Brent Venables can't win a national championship at Oklahoma" and I said "he came pretty close!" you could rightfully point out that I was being a moron.
If someone said "Marcus Freeman can't win a national championship at Notre Dame" and I said "he came pretty close!" and you said "Nahhh, he wasn't close, it was clear they could never beat Ohio State" then you are dramatically understating how easily one domino can topple another quickly. Ohio State was the better team, but with a break or two one way or the other, Notre Dame sometimes wins that game.
When "Notre Dame winning the championship" is actually "America dies and descends into fascism", we can't have them making the fucking finals.-
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20 minutes ago, McCroskey said:
It's a good question. On the surface I think it's a simple enough thought/fear that's easy to "envision" happening, but in reality what would actually have to happen across a significant number of states and across the 3 branches of federal government, is mind boggling. I just don't think that's a risk for 2029.
So you can't identify a single way it could have come closer without actually happening, but still maintain it wasn't close to happening. Normalcy bias is a motherfucker.
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Just now, McCroskey said:
Which is exactly my point. Our system, fucked as it is, allows him to make all the efforts he wants without penalty, which is a clear and obvious problem. That said, I think he will ALWAYS run into people/obstacles that aren't complete pieces of shit and don't want, nor will let it happen.
how many fucking times does this guy have to do shit that people said "oh don't worry he won't actually do that" before you fucking catch on that no one is stopping him? I'm sure you would have said Elon Musk won't be allowed to hack government computers and access everyone's confidential information and hire/fire people and close entire agencies like two weeks ago and yet HERE WE THE FUCK ARE.
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4 minutes ago, McCroskey said:
100%. But, how close did he come to doing that? I'd argue not very close.
So what, in your opinion, would come close without it actually happening? What are the intermediate outcomes between actual January 6, including now hundreds of civil servants losing their jobs for correctly prosecuting these fucking traitor criminals, and Trump stealing the election and converting the United States into authoritarian dictatorship?
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2025 GOLF: I don't think the heavy stuff's gonna come down for quite a while
in Hobbies
Posted
Had been making some progress and paid off today with what I'd say was my best round ever. Shot 80 at Plum Creek as a 17.9 index, so net 62. Could've been a lot better, too, as I made a triple from 90 out, a double from 102 out, and a triple on a 150 yard par 3 when I totally gacked a 6 iron tee shot. So I was +8 on those three holes, +1 on the other 15, including going birdie-eagle on 8 and 9. Was super proud also after totally dicking that 6 iron on 17, had a 5 iron in on 18, knowing I needed bird for 79 and flushed it to 12 feet. Just ran it by the edge, sadly.
I do have one lower score, a 77 at par 70 Mustang in Taylor, but this was a significantly better round overall. I followed that 77 up with a 108. I am playing Monday at 830 at Star Ranch, hopefully a better follow up this time! (Two spots open if anyone wants to play!)