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horn4life

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Posts posted by horn4life

  1. 10 minutes ago, SaucyJack said:

    A buddy’s uncle did the same exact thing… at Enron.

    I did barely miss out on a crazy deal.  If (and it was a long time ago) i recall correctly, right before all shit got lose at Enron, they were trying to dump some condos the corp had apparently bought.  Apparently it was a good portion of a complex and they were dumping two bedroom gulf facing 2/2 condos for Like $37K?  

    Enron was brutal.  Really hurt Houston at the time as I recall. But I was long gone to Austin by that time.  

    • Hook 'Em 1
  2. 40 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

    This is kind of what I was asking I guess.  Should I be throwing money around on certain stocks instead of funds.

    But I may sit tight for a little bit.

    Thanks for the reply.

    I might suggest you find one or more places to "paper trade" stocks.  A lot easier to learn on paper than losing paper dollars.  You might look for more conservative companies that pay off nice dividends.  Select dividend reinvestment and do nothing and it will grow over time.  If history is any indicator.

    Great dividend reinvestment story.  My wife's MOM's sister worked as a secretary her entire life as was very frugal.   But she had invested in Frito Lay, at the behest of an uncle in the early 1960's. PEPSICO swallowed Frito Lay in 1965.  She passed away in 2015, and to the surprise of all her siblings... she had over $7 million in Pepsico stock.  Dividend reinvestment, and stock splits over the decades, made that sucker grow but she never took anything out.   

    • Like 1
  3. 14 minutes ago, Captainant said:

    With how often ICE and DHS has been black bagging tourists, I would imagine nearly any tourism focused industry will take a ding. That'll have a big drag effect when potential customers are justifiably worried about getting disappeared and thrown into solitary confinement for a week and moved across the country for no reason at all

    That's not why.  I just think that we will become a less and less desirable place for foreigners to spend their money.  I thought there were about 80% fewer internationals on SoCo during SXSW this year.  The fortune article I think may have grossly underestimated the decline.   I view the US much like I view the way the wife and I choose which restaurants we go to.  We choose the places where we like the people, and spend our money there.  

    This is going to be one of those things that I do not think will flesh out for a while.  And trying to anticipate BEFORE everyone else figures things out is a very good thing in investing.  

    Quote

    Research firm Tourism Economics slashed its outlook and now sees a 5.1% decline in visits, flipping from an earlier view for an 8.8% increase. Spending by foreign tourists is expected to tumble 11%, representing a loss of $18 billion this year

    I need to so some research on this, but perhaps I can yuse the power of surly combined with my lack of time, and let you guys help me with the research.  have a great day all

     

  4. So anybody have any ideas on betting against companies in the US that might have high exposure to international tourism?  After seeing the lack of internationals at SXSW, and Fortunes report on declining international travel to the US, I think there may be an opportunity here.  But what companies would be hurt most if international travel dropped substantially?

    Thanks in advance.

  5. On 2/17/2025 at 11:20 AM, Rip76 said:

    I was about to create a post about this and found this one, nice.

    Ok, so I have a 401k from my old employer which is currently about $72,000.  I have it in a Fidelity IRA.

    What Firemans4 posted above, I sort of fell into that group.  "Seen plenty of clients roll a legacy 401k into an IRA and then sit in cash for years. They would have been better off rolling it into their current employer and investing it like their current 401k is invested."

    I have about 80% in FBALX, and the other 20% in FXAIX.  

    Just wondering what would be the best thing to do with it?  It's never gained or lost very much, but I feel like I'm missing out.

    TIA

     

    Too conservative, but as has been said it depends on your risk evel confort. But you have said the performance has been meh...

    Since you are 52 you also need to decide how long you want or need to work.  Is 62 your number, is 68 your number?  That makes a difference as well.  But no risk, no reward.  Of course IMHO you might wait a couple months to really reallocate.  As Meh performance is better than red line performance downward. But I am not ready to be optimistic on this market until I understand more of the political and tariff risks.  Our 401K is very conservatively allocated right now in bonds and maybe 30% stocks.  Our risky account, is 40% cash, and 60% betting against the market.

    The only thing I really wish I had done differently was shove aftertax dollars into a Roth, that I could be playing around in the market with.  I could have tripled or quadrupled that money in the last 2 years, tax free.  Instead I am gonna have to write a very large check next year on regular and cap gain income.

    But talk to somebody and decide you level of risk acceptance.  THAT is the first step.  Then you use, that risk acceptance to balance your portifolio in a similar manner.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  6. 9 hours ago, NBHorn7 said:

    Off the top of my head his last movie, "The Shootist," "The Sands of Iwa Jima," "The Alamo," "The Searchers," "Stagecoach, "The Cowboys," and "The Sons of Katie Elder."

    That's all I can think of.

     

    9 hours ago, horn4life said:

    oh grasshopper...

     

    Name the several Westerns John Wayne died in?   

     

    I would say grasshopper that when it comes to the westerns Wayne died in, 3 out of 7 correct answers only makes master Po giggle at the grasshopper. Master Po say, "Score good enough for A&M" 😉

  7. 1 hour ago, troph said:

    Shakedown to rockport … 

    tires needed 40+ psi, brake system wasn’t calibrated right we fixed that on the drive - won’t make that mistake again … ever,  toilet valve is spraying everywhere will fix tomorrow, thing is filthy from the dust need to clean it, ACs fine, will check the water heater after the toilet is fixed, oven works, pizza was good.

    but the fucking truck - I told the shop I’m pretty sure the transmission is shot - nope nope ma’am it’s good. 

    15 miles from rockport we spewed white smoke and pulled over on a lucky stretch with an extra extra wide shoulder. Sprayed transmission fluid all over the pavement. 

    rockport rides owner came and picked us up, his lady friend gave us a free Airbnb, we then rented a car and had a local guy pull the truck off and tow the fifth wheel to our spot and we got all set up. 

    Insurance towed the truck to the diesel shop. Fuck man a new transmission and this is legit a brand new truck. We will see what’s what soon… 

    but we’re here…. One of my most favorite places in all the world. 

     

    IMG_6139.jpeg

    IMG_6134.jpeg
     

    and I head out for reds flyfishing 745am tomorrow…. cannot wait for the skinny water…

     

    IMG_5522.jpeg

    HaHa. BUT in a good way!!!

    believe that being nice to others brings good Karma.  And I also believe that most people are good.  

    And hope you get some tight lines before the wind starts to stir.

  8. On 3/14/2025 at 8:35 AM, texasdago said:

    Met up with a fellow Shagster at SoCo stomp and caught the Big Freedia set.  Very entertaining and a fun show - crowd definitely into it.  New Orleans Bounce.  Not what I would expect to see at C-Boys.

    image.thumb.png.d43d92ec07877309f191805d273d2da4.png

    ha I skipped that set - watched the Point, and came back for CJ Chenier, since I never saw his Dad.  Today I have Restos  at one

    SoCo Stomp Day 5 w/ Eve Monsees & Mike Buck (6:30), Freedom Rockets (5:15), Molecular Steve (4:00), Jo Alice (2:45), Pelvis Wrestley (1:30) [inside]; Shinyribs (6:15), Uncle Lucius (4:45), Barfield the Tyrant (3:30), Kelley Mickwee (2:15), Restos (1:00) [outside

    Continental club-

  9. 42 minutes ago, stc said:

    attic ted, rattlesnake milk, perennial, rickshaw billie's burger patrol, the thing yesterday. perennial was obnoxious but everything else was good. downtown was deserted as fuck, moreso than on a regular weekend. here is sixth street at 5pm yesterday. 

     

    1000023694.thumb.jpg.5a793dd98a2472945d8e4d64309b8682.jpg

    The one thing I really noticed this weekend was a LOT fewer international travelers.  Like maybe 80+% fewer, where on SoCo they have made up a lot the last few years.  So many fewer I was trying to think of US companies with a lot of exposure to international travel. OR is it that folks are simply pulling back on spending in the US?   It was crowded of course, but not as crowded as last year.  I want to see what the economic impact was of SXSW compared to last year after the sales taxes are tallied.

    Restos at 1 pm at the SoCo Stomp, be there or be square!

  10. YES... let's enjoy the Aggie misery index a bit more.  I remember after the game.  If I were an Aggie I would fucking hate us!  I mean it would probably become visceral and damage my life.  We are like Lucy snatching to football away from the hapless Charlie Brown, and just crushing hope.  

    What went from an opportunity to pound a rival, even in the final few moments of the second overtime, a nice lead, and only seconds left... Texas ruins what was going to be sheer sweetness, and turns it into anger and bitterness.  It really is a weight that Aggies have to bear.  And I for one enjoy them bearing it!

    • Hook 'Em 1
  11. Well there was actually a protest at the Tesla I assume sales office, at Pond Springs and 183 this morning.  Actually had maybe 60-85 people when I drove by, to Leaf Nursery.  Looked like more cars had parked and I realized I needed to U-Turn to avoid the congestion.  About that time I saw some dude in a suit in the back of a Tesla with a Bullhorn headed to defend Musk and Tesla.  I guess the very popular "Don't buy a Swasticar," has come over from Europe.  

    sure wish I had bought that March 21, $560 put for $150 I chickened out on.

  12. The big boys can manipulate the market if they collude, but mainly the big boys have enough cash at all times to buy when there is blood in the streets. But I believe also that over time even the big boys cannot control the markets completely.  If you were fully invested on February 1, you didn't have cash on the sidelines to take advantage of the fall.  The average guys 401K is fully invested, and it just rides up and down, with the longer timelines smoothing out the rough patches.  But I do agree that up is down right now... so how do I choose what to bet on?  I can't.  So by default, I am getting against.  

    I had to search for this as I heard somebody else repeating these words last week.  But this is basically why I am currently against the market. 

    Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded. It’s the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation and predictable rule of law.

    While market consensus assumed the administration would carefully balance inflationary, anti-growth policies with pro-growth policies, it has come storming out of the gate in the first fifty days with more of the former than the latter.    - Michael Cembalest

    I honestly had no idea who this guy was, but this statement stuck in my mind.  He is apparently and analyst for J.P. Morgan and the above words were the opening for him market analysis research paper in Eye on the Market  Interesting read, but lengthy especially if you read all the footnotes. Eye on the Market - Fifty Shades of Grey.  Some interesting reading explaining why this is NOT a normal market, and relying on normal market history and indicators may not be reliable in a world of tariffs.  

    • Hook 'Em 2
  13. 2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

    Another advisor friend sent me this yesterday.... per one of their major analysts....

     

    The market is oversold, but we feel that we may not have seen the bottom yet. We are approximately 40% in cash, and we are looking for opportunities when the HCM Pivot Point® system brings us back into the market.
    This is the fifth fastest 10% correction of the S&P 500 in 75 years. Drops like this have a very strong tendency to be a huge overreaction. Big disruptions like we are experiencing with the tariff issue can create big opportunities, and we think this selloff is a big overreaction. If you look back at the other selloffs, they based and moved higher in short order. The stock market was higher at 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M later:
    5 of 6 times, higher 1M later (except covid)
    6 of 6 times, higher 3M later, median gain 9%
    6 of 6 times, higher 6M later, median gain 15%
    6 of 6 times, higher 12M later, median gain 21%

    This same came though on a CNBC noon chart.

    But is this a normal market?  To me I should have gotten the ass whipping I got today, two days ago, after good jobless and inflation news??? Not good consumer sentiment (for a consumer driven economy) but no shutdown (at least as of now). No shutdown was priced in more to the downside, than consumer confidence was priced to the upside? WTF

    I honestly would have thought the market would have reacted negatively to the consumer negativity, than positively to no gov't shutdown.  Or it could just be taking that data from above quote, and the algorithm says buy?  Which honestly is a decent explanation. 

     

  14. Quote

    All they really need to do is win 9 games in a row, and they are National Champions!  If I my lazy ass math guess was right.  

    It would be sort of fun to beat both Vandy and A&M.  

     

     

     

    ahhh...      hope springs eternal

    This is what I typed as the Vandy game was tipping off.  In the "Terry's Last Stand thread. Tennessee is a tough matchup for up, and two overtimes of banging  are not a plus.  But for the first time we have perhaps enough healthy contributors to cover the minutes?  Time management of the starters trying to keep them as fresh as possible. 

    But fuck, I was watching the last few minutes of the Aggie game's second overtime.  We get so fucking jobbed by the refs. 

    But Come ON Boys!!!  Let's get one more.  Early time rotation of players is going to be key!  Hell if I were at that game I would be tired just from cheering and the emotional ups and downs.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  15. 24 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

    I think the selling is flushed out for now but what do I know. Ive only been really following market trends for 4 or 5 years now ( and really feeling their impact). Lets see if the gains hold into the close today like I hoped they would every day this week while I held, but didnt. I always figured we'd bounced back to the 200 DMA and then from there, the market would make a decision on where to go. Lets see if it goes to 572 ish over the next few days. Maybe even a bit higher before another major move in either direction. Again, this is only if the institutional money is all thinking and planning the same thing based off other corrections. Data be damned. My guess is we get back to around 572 area on Tues Wed next week and then make a move based on whatever the fed does Wednesday.

    I don't see how the Fed can with any confidence do much of anything, except wait for more data.   Main thing is today, and how does the day finish.  Do the gains hold? Or does it sell off into the close.  If they hold I may make a pretty big trim and take the profits and cut exposure. 

     

  16. 3 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

    I have seen this type of rally before. Back in 2022.  Just a horrible consumer sentiment number today and the markets shrugged it off. Get rid of all the sellers, even the ones who sell right after a big resistance floor was overtaken, ie the 10% correction. Who is left after that but the buyers? Had great inflation numbers Wednesday and Thursday but it didn't matter. Had a horrible report today and it didn't matter. The plan was in place by the big institutions? Am I doing that right? Very interesting. Well, keep learning I guess.

    So you think the selling is flushed out?   IF that's the case all may gains betting against the market will evaporate.

    I am thinking this is more that the debt ceiling is apparently going to be raised?  But is that what has been dragging on the market?  OR is this an upward bounce to sell on?  

    The government not shutting down is very good news.  But with a shit consumer sentiment number... Inflation number and jobs were honestly better than I thought they could be, this week. March 21 was my circled in red date.  So we will see.  But I am bleeding today for sure.  

  17. I have not moved her for soon to me 18 months.  Taking care of my folks now remodeling their place has robbed most of that time.  Hoping to get the rig back out in May.  But hell the prep will be a couple days.  Plus I used the keys to grab some white lithium out of the tool box, and somehow... I have apparently lost them.  Or they are not in the two place I usually set keys, so that concerning.  I have my month booked for Port A, but right now is when I should be using her.

    I sort of dread all the work, with all the other shit on my plate.  But the greatest thing about our trailer was that we could bring our dog and that it felt like home. I also was thinking about using it and saving drive time remodeling the place on Lake Belton.  So that could be the shake down cruise.

     

  18. 16 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

    Bessent just said he’s comfortable with some disruptions.   We’re in for a rough ride when the government is talking down the market.

    Shit having Lutnick and Bessent talk... is simply not good for the market.  Better for neither of them to come on the financial news channels.  As Bessent was explaining how the gas price decline was all Trump, and Lutnick was explaining how the market fall is actually Biden's economy. Very confusing messaging less than two hours apart.  Especially when folks are watching their 401K moving in a concerning direction.

  19. I am about to enjoy a beautiful day with my wife of 39 years.  We are going to take a time machine back when we were young living in Travis Heights with an infant and a newborn.  A time long ago when a good baby sitter you could trust with your young children was more valuable than your car for parental freedom.  We used to go see a lot of music, and today is a day to rekindle that.  

    We are going to go down to South Congress and drift between music venues, grab some food, I'll have a few drinks, and just generally have a damn good day.  Might even run into some old friends.  Or perhaps even make some new ones!

    Each day is yours to own.  And while many things you cannot control, there are so many things you can control that can make each day of yours, AND someone elses better.  Just be nice!  Be as nice as you can, to everyone you meet. Especially folks in subservient positions.  The funniest thing about being nice, is it tends to make so very many more days "good days in the world."  You never know what tomorrow holds, so take control of today.  So today I am going to go spread goodwill in the world!  Unless you fucking step in front of me right as the headliner comes on.  Then I will be like Patrick Swayze in road house, you be nice until it's time to be nice.

    But a beautiful day to see live music in Austin outdoors with a loved one, or a new friend.  Have a great day all of you!

    • Hook 'Em 6
    • Like 1
  20. Te more I hear Howard Lutnick talk, the more comfortable I am shorting this market.  Because as Lutnick just told me this 1st quarter is all Biden, Second quarter might be Biden's, and third quarter will be Trump's.  You see Lutnick did present an exact economic model of the usual Presidency.  As usually it takes at least several quarters of gradual change as policies trickle though the economy.  That is indeed the norm.  But Lutnick KNOWS that this is not a normal transition and that the tariffs take more like a few weeks or two months to start seeing that inflation.  The complete disconnects with reality that Secretary Lutnick repeatedly espouses, are what make me have such grave concerns for this market.

    You can say anything politically.  But the problem is folks don't believe clear bullshit when it comes to their money.  And pretending that this shock to the markets is actually "Biden's fault" to own?  Which means that the market is actually betting against the Biden policies of the past?  And is no longer forward looking?

    I gook a pretty good loss yesterday, and looking at this mornings numbers I should be facing another decent loss, Instead, after hearing Lutnick's delusion, I can only assume his delusion is a reflection of cabinet level economic discussions?  Fucking Lutnick, now I almost feel obligated to add to my fucking risky bets against this market, even in anticipation of a beating.  Or as Lutnick would say... against Biden's market... 

    Another teeny tiny bit of UVIX premarket.

     

    • Hook 'Em 3
    • Haha 1
  21. 13 hours ago, Blotto said:

    We'll be underdogs from here on out, so I believe the play is to bet a 9 team open parlay and just take the Texas ML every game.

    easy. f'n. money. 

    Should have enough $$ after I buy my mansion, to snag a cybertruck and have it wrapped with RT's visage. granny glasses and all. 

    Or you could invest in today's stock market!  But at least you would have long odds with that parlay!

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