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Gap03

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Gap03

  1. 4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

    Nate Silver revealed a couple of nights ago that Trafalagar has been getting paid by unnamed partisan entities. It’s too late to do anything but put a partisan astrix on the polls, but it’s something he will have to account for in the future.  
     

    There is a long history of pollsters staking out an extreme position and hoping it hits.  Most are wrong, but every cycle there is one pollster that the broken clock on vote day is correct.  Zogby, Rasmussen, Gravis, and now Trafalgar.  On the progressive side: Sam Wang got made to look the fool in 2016 (although he’s and aggregator).

     

    Either Trafalgar has seen something nobody else has seen, or more likely he got lucky on Election Day in 2016, and he’s now cashing in on the RW grift. The stupid facial hair and bow tie indicate the latter. 

    It feels like the effort by Trafalgar, Susquehanna & InsiderAdvantage (both brought to you by the Center for American Greatness, for fuck's sake) and Rasmussen is to create enough right-leaning polls to swing the RCP average (which doesn't account for the quality of the polls in the same way that 538 does) so that Trump can scream that he won and have it not look quite so ridiculous.  It's ridiculous and transparent, but obviously sufficient for those that quote Breitbart / OANN / Gateway Pundit as legit news.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  2. Trump has weaponized the stupidity of the masses, and social media has made it virulent.  If the EU authorities can't get shit under control, things are going to get real ugly, real quick in the EU.

    Quote

    Fresh lockdowns to stem the spread of the coronavirus have sparked sometimes violent protests in several European countries, fuelled both by ideological fury at new government-imposed restrictions and fears of economic hardship.

    As the number of infections surge and hospitals and intensive care units fill up, countries including Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain have once more introduced tough curbs on movement and gatherings.

    But the measures are stirring resistance, not just among libertarians who see them as an assault on personal freedom and conspiracy theorists who say the virus is a hoax, but from business owners and independent workers worried for their future.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/02/latest-coron

     

  3. Based on the most recent Marist and Rasmussen (I know it's shit, just using it for consistency of split) polls, Cunningham is running 4 pts ahead of Biden (+10 vs +6 on Marist; +3 vs. -1 on Rasmussen).  That's a good sign for Cunningham because it seems like, at worst, the presidential race is a dead heat in NC.  If that +4 spread holds, it feels pretty likely that Cunningham wins.

  4. 8 minutes ago, NAVY said:

    The do nothing fed plan might be failing a tad. Ugly winter inbound 

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    638B8545-D00F-4E1C-8161-89034B66C56A.jpeg

     

     

    The E.U. is a bit ahead of us in this next wave, but as the colder weather kicks in, we're going to be right behind them.  As many of us mentioned at the time, the fact that none of Trump or his infectees ended up dying just emboldened the dumbshits, so we're going to be fucked in a few more weeks. 

    Screen_Shot_2020_10_19_at_6.52.37_AM.png

    https://www.vox.com/21514530/europe-covid-second-wave-update

     

  5. 30 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

    Whitewater, Uranium One, Benghazi, Solendra, Obamagate, Spygate, tan suit, Vince Foster, missing emails, Deep State, pizzagate, Illuminati, Fast & Furious, bleachbit, Seth Rich, George Soros, Caravan, antifa, MS-13, birtherism, radical Islam, Hunter Biden.  

    It’s all the same shit different day.

    I can't help but feel like that list should be re-organized so it can be sung to the tune of "It's the End of the World" by R.E.M. ...

    • Hook 'Em 1
  6. 7 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

    So his plan is to hold America hostage through the end of Jan?   If so the Dem House needs to pass a stimulus bill EVERY DAY until then and then heavily advertise how many bills were sent to Moscow Mitch to die.  Tighten the scews as the pain increase and set up for another Rep slaughter in 2022.   

    All he has to do is get through the election.  If Trump loses, Trump will immediately pull any deal back off the table and give the U.S. people the double bird, because fuck everyone if he isn't loved enough to win the election.  I'd brace for no additional stimulus until late January / early February.

  7. 52 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

    wtf???

     

    This is SO fucking perfect.  It's a fucking Warhol for Christ's sake. 

     

     

    It's the Georgia GOP voters he's targeting - this will probably work.  The minute that she tries to explain that it's a Warhol, he's going to paint her as an art-loving elite and she'll lose more votes. 

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