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Posts posted by Gap03
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1 minute ago, 4th&Five said:
Just full-blown propaganda from Kudlow and Navarro these days ...
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Don't know anything about this pollster, but fascinating shift in the polls in Mississippi - from R-+26 in March to R+1 in August. I WANT to believe - giving that old racist clown the boot would be spectacular.
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41 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:
This guy needs to get got. I’m donating to Harrison today.
MeidasTouch with the smackdown ...
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This mashup makes me all sorts of ragey. Fuck every one of these motherfuckers.
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17 minutes ago, elfenix said:
prison is freedom! **
** As long as you're hurting the right people!
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27 minutes ago, Anastasis said:
I agree. Scott Gottlieb was just on CNBC as asked the question. His perspective was an emergency use authorization for high risk group likely this year with a more broad approval late first half 2021. April may be doable, but optimistic.
A related question is whether having enough vaccine available for everyone is going to solve the problem. If the vaccines that are approved end up being only 50-60% effective (possible) and only 50% of people are willing to take the vaccine because of "MiCrOChiPs iN mY BlOOD!" and the Trump admin fucking over all trust in science / CDC / et al. (pretty damn likely), it will only end up slowing the spread. In that case, we'll still be fighting through lingering community spread and the legacy of "YOU CAN'T MAKE ME WEAR A MASK!1!! Muh freedumbs!", so I question whether other countries are going to let Americans come visiting ... unless maybe Biden wins and can Jedi mindtrick the Trumptards into following a universal mask mandate. Yeah, I'm not planning on being able to leave the country any time soon.
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To recap, as things in the Midwest (MN, WI, and MI) continue to solidify in favor of Biden, things look increasingly bad for Trump. With those three states, Biden has 258 EVs, so he'd need only 12 more to win, with the following options:
- PA (20) (D+5)
- FL (29) (D+2)
- NC (15) (D+1)
- GA (15) (D-2)
- TX (38) (D-2)
- OH (18) (D-2)
- AZ (11) (D+5) + ME-2 (D+2ish) or NE-2 (D+?)
Ideally he'd win two of the bigger states. If the win involves just 1 state or the AZ route, all hell will probably break loose in the weeks after Nov. 3.
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8 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:
Because Lady G’s trump flip flopping is too fucking obvious and embarrassing, and he wasn’t all that popular to begin with, and people in that state don’t like to be embarrassed. Not that anybody does but i think more so there.
And the ladybug chronicles may have pointed out to some of his constituents that he's gay, which may cause some of them to stay home, lest he attract more hurricanes to SC ...
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The constant barrage of that anti-Wendy ad ("... just another self-serving politician ...") here in Austin is pushing me close to the edge. I swear, if I ever run into Chip, I'm gonna go Talladega Nights on his ass ...
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Another high quality poll showing Biden with a steady lead. Interesting breakout here. Fucking white evangelicals ...
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13 minutes ago, thepop said:
Make that 2
Everyone that can should send Jaime some cash. Why? Because fuck this guy ...
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Cross-posting. Gideon looking good among recent quality polls. The Monmouth poll had me a bit nervous about Kelly, but he's been consistently at 50%, so I think he'll hold on. The undecideds in North Carolina (12-18% in recent polls) make me nervous - not sure how that one is going to shake out.
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AZ looking better and better for Biden ...
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21 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:
This doc is claiming masks have zero benefit with respiratory viruses, and that the coronavirus is "dying away" through "herd immunity". I have a hard time thinking there is anything but a crass motivation, either political, financial, or both at play, but the problem is the appeal to authority: "hey, he's with Johns Hopkins and studied at Columbia, surely he knows more than YOU do". Never mind that 1000X the similarly credentialed docs and scientists are in fundamental disagreement with him, now FOX has their expert, and they're going to run with it and kill people.
"Herd immunity ... It's herd mentality ..."
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30 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:
It's a throw shit at the wall kind of afternoon.
Sir, this is an Arby's ...
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56 minutes ago, elfenix said:
democrats shot themselves in the foot over vietnam and sirhan sirhan gunned down RFK in a hotel ballroom, helping nixon to the presidency. that guy was as shithead of the highest order. the republican party, despite knowing he was a shithead of the highest order, protected him until it became 100% politically untenable to do so.
then we elected a nice guy as president, but he was too nice, so we went with smiling shithead saint reagan, who really united conservative economic fuckwadery with conservative social fuckwadery. the former broke the social contract wrt the economy by knocking down unions, pushing the burden of taxation further down the income/wealth curve, and eviscerating much of the regulation that had been put in place to protect the public in the prior couple-few decades from the worst of capitalism, while the latter tried to cling to some 1950s whitewashed notion of social structure with the trigger being school integration.
then conservative media really got underway using expertise in psy-ops public relations that the API had been perfecting for decades, even teaching the nazis a thing or two, to gaslight the public against expertise generally, but specifically governmental and scientific expertise, and to push libertopian ideology that essentially meant that there's no consequences for using the public as an open sewer, using the term 'personal responsibility.' that also tied into a backlash against social services - public health, public schooling, welfare, etc. along the way we amped up the drug war, incarcerating (and often disenfranchising) mostly minority men.
bill clinton, who was a bit rapey and a bit of a shithead, tried to embrace 3rd way politics, but that helped cost the democratic party the old blue collar base, while also failing at advancing public health and giving away social services.
then the supreme court decided to halt the counting, al qaeda flew planes into the WTC, shadow president cheney got us into a completely unnecessary land war in asia, and the 'personal responsibility' state allowed banks to become huge systemic risks and crash the economy.
despite that, republicans were out of power for all of about 6 weeks in 2009, during which obamacare passed. meanwhile, kansas billionaires were upset that a company they owned was held (fictitionally) personally responsible for spewing benzene in corpus christi, so astroturfed backlash against the first black president by some of those blue collar whites bill clinton hadn't paid enough attention to into the tea party. thereafter, the republicans got a toehold of power back in the senate in a special election following the death of ted kennedy, took the house in 2010, and started gaslighting the public with phony investigations.
conservative media kept celebrating idiocy and squawking about washington, mitch started refusing to fill judicial appointments (the party of wealth has always known of the power of the judiciary, see the Midnight Judges Act), and the idiots wanted one of their own in the presidency. and one emerged: the birther in chief, donald j. trump. they liked the fact that he appeared to say his mind, despite his mind being full of goo. they liked that he wasn't a career politician. they forgave the fact that he's the ultimate coastal elite, a supposed billionaire real estate developer from manhattan born with a golden spoon in his mouth. even centrist media loved to show him because he was a rating bonanza compared to the rosencrantz and guildenstern of the 10 other completely interchangeable republicans who started running for the presidency in 2015 (or 13, c'mon ted).
combine the idiotic fervor of the 'keep government out of medicare' crowd with the democratic party's choice to run the wife of the man who'd let working class whites get away, the 'but i can't vote for a democrat,' crowd, and the machinations of an electoral system put in place to placate white men who owned black men as their chattel property and and you have the election of a loud mouth idiot who plays up division and embodies all the worst facets of american conservatism since 1948 to the presidency.
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16 minutes ago, sasquatch69 said:
Abbott reopening restaurants/retail/offices to 75% capacity except in RGV. Oh, and nursing homes too.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/17/greg-abbott-texas-coronavirus/
Am I the only one that thinks this is incredibly stupid timing? I expect the impact of the schools re-opening here in Texas to start hitting in earnest about a month after the schools open. Much like what we saw in Florida, many of the younger folks (party folks in Florida, students here in Texas) will end up being asymptomatic, so while we'll see a modest uptick in positive cases initially, it will take 3-4 weeks for the parents and older people to start catching it, at which point the cases will really start to tick up. Hopefully increased mask-wearing will keep it from being June / July all over again, but letting people cram into restaurants / offices seems like pouring gas on a small brush fire. If you look at the graphs at 91-divoc.com, you'll see that we're already starting to see things ramping up over the last few days - the weekly average cases/day had bottomed out at 2,682 three days ago, but has ramped up to 4,187 since. Perhaps just a blip in the data, but I just don't understand the timing of this move.
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6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:
South Carolina Senate race is looking like a fucking big one now. Plenty of other experts who know more than me will be along to answer shortly, I'm sure. Maine seems like it's sewn up already.
I agree with Sydney. Regaining control of the Senate will be essential so that we can start to unfuck the federal judiciary, and there are a few races where money is likely to help - namely:
- SC (where Harrison seems to be surging),
- NC (where Cunningham is hoping to hold onto his lead and where we know the Rs will be up to some shenanigans), and
- ME (because we know that Mitch will likely continue to throw a lot of cash to protect his favorite pet, even though Gideon seems to have a significant lead).
IA still seems to be a bit of tossup, but I'm not sure money helps there as much, and MT is still fairly close, but Bullock is already well known so I'm not sure that advertising (while cheap) is going to help him climb out of the whole he seems to be in.
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With MI, MN and WI all trending away from Trump (D+7 or better in each) and Biden's polling average above 50% in each, it seems increasingly unlikely that he wins any of those states. That means that Trump HAS to win FL and PA - AZ won't help. I agree that you just can't rely on FL, with DeSantis and his SOS, no matter what the polls say. It really boils down to PA. Marist (A+ poll) had Biden up +9 among likely voters, and the 538 polling average has had Biden at 50% +/- 1% since June, so I feel pretty good about that. If there are going to be shenanigans by Barr and co., they're going to be aimed at PA voters because the state officials in PA aren't going to be helping Trump.
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5 minutes ago, sachick said:
Listening to a Trumpster on Erin Burnett and as he pretends to answer questions he just talks non stop and goes on non-stop tangents. Pointless to have anyone from Trump’s team on. They just get on and say whatever they like.
Watching that too. Erin is way too passive with these types of folks - it's just infuriating. We really need more Mehdi Hasans out there to shut down their bullshit.
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1 minute ago, Jive Turkey said:
Come on 2020 - here's your chance to stop fucking around with us and ...
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13 minutes ago, thepop said:
Holy crap @ Maine
It's also time to help Jaime Harrison and take him seriously.
That's a damn shame for Susan. That poll was from 9/10-9/14, with the first debate falling on 9/11. Most of the polls over the last month had Gideon up between 4-8 points, which makes it feel like Susan rubbed some Mainers the wrong way during the debate.
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That's correct - MI, WI and AZ get Biden to 269, at which point he needs either a stray EV from NE or ME or PA. AT 269, it goes to the House, where we'd get 4 more years of this shit.
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3 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:
Alex was stirring up shit in the Woods of west lake neighborhood entrance to the greenbelt just west of 360 so I imagine he lives somewhere nearby that.
Not sure if this is accurate at all, but it would be consistent with JimmyJames' data point:
https://virtualglobetrotting.com/map/alex-jones-house/view/google/
Thing$ $till not going well for Joe Rogan, I $ee.
in Cloak Room
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