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gmr548

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Posts posted by gmr548

  1. On 4/11/2024 at 1:32 PM, washparkhorn said:

    This is ignoring the amount of people (and money) on the sidelines in the housing market because they don't like the interest rate environment. A decrease in interest rates without an economic slowdown is going to lead to an increase in home prices - and a significant one at that - because we are still structurally undersupplied.

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  2. On 4/11/2024 at 4:00 PM, Gatorubet said:

     

    I think that Trump’s death will see the aggie roller coaster. They will all pledge to go forward against the deep state because Trump died to protect them from woke Libs , and junior will try to be the new face going forward.  Meatball Ron and Marge and Teddy Cancun will all try to step in the void to oppose Don Junior, but the passage of time that core group of Maga idiots will choose sides between the pretenders to the throne.  Once that happens, they will not win elections, and they will be too busy fighting each other or get too frustrated and drop out, snd will not be much of a force going forward.

    Pockets of these maga idiots will continue to give city councils and school boards a problem, but I see their national influence waning. 

    This. Post-Trump MAGA will splinter due to a power vacuum. Whether or not they win elections will depend entirely on whether Trump is put back in the WH in 2024 or 2028 and the US becomes Hungary 2.0.

    3 hours ago, safe sex said:

    It's not quite as red as Texas, because the voters of Ohio have protected abortion rights at the ballot box very recently.

    An up or down vote on enshrining abortion rights in the Texas constitution would pass too.

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  3. 3 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

     

    Bruh imagine betting on Ron DeSantis as the favorite to the the next President of the United States at literally any point in time.

    56 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    Idk, it feels like in 2016 and in 2024, the BMDs of the GOP have not read the base very well.  

    They don't want an alternative to Trump, or even a Trump Lite (aka, not such an open racist and dumbfuck).  You can put up anyone who can disparage wokeness, CRT, trans people, immigrants, and try to package it neatly, but they only care the most when the orange shitgibbon does it.

    Trumpism doesn't work when you try to package it in a conventional, consultant-approved political box because that is antithetical to its very nature. It can only work with a circus conductor like Trump.

    46 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    Counterpoint, with the decay in intelligence and public education, maybe they won't be more effective?

    This. Idiocracy was a documentary.

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  4. 38 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

    I don't know if you're a wine drinker.  But my highest recommendation is to stop off of 101 in Los Olivos.  Last time I was there, it was literally a dirt road 'main street.'  There's a wine tasting room (their vineyard is up in the foothills).  Called Saarloos & Sons.  The brother of the TCU baseball coach runs it.  Such a cool building, basically took over an old west saloon and turned it into tasting room while still maintaining the heritage of the building. 

    There's a higher-end takeout/convenience store just across the dusty street (it my be paved now).  We got fantastic food from there and went back to Saarloos and ate outside while having unbelievably great wine.  The brother (can't remember his name) was so excited when we said we were from Texas (unlike most Californians).  Kirk, as you may remember played in both Round Rock and for the Astros.  So this brother stayed with him for a portion of that time and fell in love with Central Texas.  Anyway, stop by for a small tasting so you can still drive.  But the guy just loved to shoot the shit about Texas, baseball, and wine.  And we had a wonderful cheese/meat board with salads and dessert.  I had been to a 100 wine tasting rooms and it was probably my favorite experience.  Then we did a hike in some of the foothills afterward to burn off the calories and hooch.  

    We had lunch in Los Olivos (Nella, Italian, very good). Little more to it now - the road is paved lol - and there are several tasting rooms, distilleries, restaurants, etc. At least one small, upscale hotel. Not overcrowded by any means though. Solvang was a lot and had tourist trap energy on a Sunday afternoon. Bar Le Cote in LO is supposed to be a phenomenal seafood place.

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  5. 16 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

     

    This is the case in most major polls. He takes from both candidates and it's common for Biden to be on the losing end of that.

    Everyone's focused on the antivax, conspricary theory bits that draws some former Trumpers, but there are plenty of relatively apathetic voters that went for Biden last time, don't care for either candidate now, and are liable to case a vote for him. RFK isn't going to get 10%, I'm not super worried about low info Democrats voting RFK; they will come home as they check in. It's the independents for whom RFK will serve as a protest vote that is concerning given his instant name recognition.

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  6. We were just in Santa Barbara in February and had a great time. Summerland Beach Cafe is a nice, quaint spot right off the highway and there is a beautiful county park overlooking the ocean right across the road.

    Cold Springs Tavern up in the Santa Ynez Mountains above SB is iconic and worth checking out, good tri tip sandwich.

    Lots of other good restaurants in Santa Barbara. Depending on how slow you're taking it, you may be interested in a day trip to Channel Islands NP, ferries run out of Ventura. They depart at 9/10am and have you back about 4/5pm.

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  7. On 4/5/2024 at 6:20 PM, Satchel said:

    Anybody who thinks state schools in Texas are sufficiently diverse, equitable and inclusive is just not paying attention. Since the first Black student was admitted to UT in 1956, no public university playing D1 sports at the highest level has even 5,000 black students enrolled - and that’s in the state that is home to the largest number of black citizens in the country. Black people feel under assault in Texas and it’s not because we’re paranoid.

    It is incredibly bad at UT and A&M, and as the two largest/most prestigious institutions the discrimination from those schools has the biggest economic and cultural impact. UT is 6% black, the flagship university of a state with a black population 2x that proportion. If I recall correctly this is sadly even better than when I graduated 10 years ago, I believe it was 4% black at the time. Aggy has over 70k students and 2% of them are black, basically a meme of what you'd expect reading texags. For context, SMU and TCU - known across the state for being bubbles for rich white kids -  are both 5% black. More than 2x the black student population of aggy and comparable to UT. That's where our flagship public schools are. It's shameful.

    Interestingly, UT's 37% white population mirrors the state, it is asian students massively overrepresented at 23%. This is true to a lesser extent at aggy (10%) but to no one's surprise, aggy is much whiter than the state as a whole (57%). Tech is just 6% black and majority white, below the state but probably not as bad relative to the area it primarily serves given most of the state's black population is on or east of the I-35 corridor. 

    The two major DFW campuses appear to be doing the best in a relative sense. UNT is 14% black, slightly above the state and slightly below the 16% of the DFW metro. UT Arlington is 15% black; UT Arlington gets pretty close to the state at 31/31/15 white/hispanic/black, but has a large asian student population as well. Texas State probably most closely reflects the state but still overrepresents white students at 42%, 41% hispanic, 10% black, 3% asian. UH is 10%, close to the state but well under the 17% of the Houston MSA. 

    Pretty bleak overall, because the full picture is one where black students are significantly underrepresented at the largest public universities and are sub 5% in aggregate at the top two campuses.

     

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  8. 14 hours ago, Spider2YBanana said:

    It's not good hearing Baxter losing a fumble. I assumed that would have been fixed afrer the Washington fiasco. Kid needs to get it together. Plenty of time to get it fixed. 

    I read an article today that the author (I have no idea who it was) was adament that Blue would end up being the #1 back due to him having another gear and he's running between the tackles. I wish I would have saved it. Fml. 

     

    13 hours ago, Ghost of Shag said:

    I believe this. I think Blue is going to be the better back.

     

    12 hours ago, Newy25 said:


    This is our running back 1b. Not a situational player. I think he has 1000 all purpose yards this year. 

    Blue was the better back at the end of last season and it wasn't particularly close. Baxter is getting the hype because he was the 5 star and you'd expect a bigger jump from a player going from year 1 to 2 than one going from 2 to 3, but I don't think it's a hot take to say Blue will be heavily involved or will be the best back. That'd just mean picking up where things left off (ideally a better version where both have made progress).

     

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  9. 1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

    I don't think RFK is stealing voters from Biden. Or at least he is stealing more voters for Trump than voters for Biden. The vast majority of people that would end up voting for RFK would have either voted for Trump or stayed home. 

    Logically you'd think this based on the antivax and conspiracy theory stuff but polls show it's pretty evenly split, if not a little worse for Biden. I have no doubt some of that are disaffected and/or low info Democrats that will come home. How many don't? That's the million dollar question.

    Trump's gotten 46% of the popular vote twice and is likely to fall in line with that again. His support has a low ceiling, but a high floor given the cult of personality. I don't imagine RFK ultimately peels off too many Trumpers because of the cult element. If RFK gets an electorally significant number of votes, it's because of defected D/independents, which hurts Biden.

  10. 2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    Is he leading in every poll? No.  But there's been quantifiable movement towards Biden in almost every national and some state polls since the SOTU

    I'm not arguing with the latter. That wasn't the claim. The former was.

  11. Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

     

    Nate, known Biden copium addict.

    Ah, yes, "definitely look better" (which I think everyone would agree with and is documented in averages) is totally the same as "basically every single poll has Biden ahead now."

    This is my point.

  12. 11 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

    The WSJ article describing the results of the poll had a comment from one of the respondents demonstrating its ridiculousness. A Biden 2020 voter stated they will absolutely not vote for Trump but isn’t happy with Biden and is therefore “undecided.” It’s bullshit - they will be a Biden voter.

    The same poll also somehow found that 13% of the sample is voting for RFK in Arizona.

    Polling is just clickbait at this point.

    RFK is a little worrisome because of how low info the American electorate is and how well funded their campaign is. He's not getting double digits but if they lean into a disinformation campaign they can definitely get up into the 5%+ range and swing the election to Trump. Maybe he'll run out of money, maybe he'll say some outlandishly stupid things (didn't stop Gary Johnson from hitting that threshold), maybe more detailed media coverage will effectively shine a light on his nuttiness. It's early, but there's a universe where he's a big problem.

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  13. 52 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

    So basically every single poll has Biden ahead now, weird how polls are no longer in the news.

    I'm sorry, what?

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

    https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-biden-polls/

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024#!

    I'm not one to make a ton of polls this early either way but the copium on this board can border on disinformation at times.

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  14. 3 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

    Get back to me when Israel shuts down food shipments and you will have my 100% support.

    What is three precision strikes on an aid convoy?

    Negged again, you piece of shit.

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  15. 16 hours ago, Codaxx said:

    I didnt like the pick up to start with, but I have to assume the coaches saw some role for him. I dont buy the culture angle, Texas is far beyond that at this point. I am going to hope he can fill a limited role that is utilized vs power running teams and short yardage. If that isnt the case, then it is completely mystery as to why they brought him in.  

    No one is ever "far beyond that," especially not 2024 Texas given historical context and coaching/roster turnover. The staff worked very hard to establish the conditions that allowed for a 12-1 season last year and now several of the players and coaches that made that possible are gone. To think Texas wouldn't invest in a culture guy is a head scratcher.

  16. 18 hours ago, TexasEd said:

    Going back 3 years I remember the motivations as:

    • Population decline made it now or never
    • Need to move back as close as possible to the Fulda Gap lines 
    • Ukraine's undeveloped Oil and Gas reserves on land an in the Black Sea.
    • Warm water ports in the Black Sea

    Only the population objective has taken a hit due to the war.  If Russia is successful the other three are still wins.

    Putin was in the KGB for 15 years and has openly mourned the collapse of the USSR. Any strategic goals seem to pale in comparison to the nostalgic? - I don't know if that's the right word - desire to reestablish the Soviet empire/sphere of influence, regardless of whether or not it's strategically sensible or viable.

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