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gmr548

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Posts posted by gmr548

  1. 23 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/03/05/online-opt-in-polls-can-produce-misleading-results-especially-for-young-people-and-hispanic-adults/
     

    Online opt-in polls can produce misleading results, especially for young people and Hispanic adults

    In particular, several recent studies have documented large errors in online opt-in surveys due to the presence of so-called “bogus respondents.” These respondents do not answer questions sincerely; instead, they attempt to complete surveys with as little effort as possible to earn money or other rewards.

    Studies have shown that bogus respondents can cause opt-in surveys to overestimate rare attitudes and behaviors, such as ingesting bleach to protect against COVID-19, belief in conspiracies like Pizzagate or support for political violence.

    At Pew Research Center, we’ve found that this type of overreporting tends to be especially concentrated in estimates for adults under 30, as well as Hispanic adults. Bogus respondents may be identifying this way in order to bypass screening questions that might otherwise prevent them from receiving a reward, though the precise reasons are difficult to pin down. Whatever the underlying cause, the result can be unreliable estimates for those groups.

    The scientific term is the texags effect

    • Haha 1
  2. 1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

    I keep waiting for Texas to eliminate early voting.

    Yep. I remember the absolute meltdown when Abbott let his sanity slip out from undercover and added a third week of early voting in 2020. Next action on that will be in the other direction, and only applicable to counties with a population of n-1, where n = the population of Dallas County.

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Rage+1 1
  3. 4 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

    What actually makes me laugh is that there are only two explanations here.  This poster is either really that dumb or he's a full on cultist.  There are no other options.

     

    Troll Dancing GIF

  4. 5 hours ago, Clintonaldo said:

    My fear of flying is unrivaled. I thought I was over it and booked a plane ticket to San Antonio when Tennessee was playing Texas AM and pussed out and drove anyways. My last flight to Brazil I had 9 beers at the airport and was still in shambles the entire time. This thread has not helped me at all!

    Maybe this was fear of being subjected to aggy football?

  5. 42 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

    What happened in our Texas primary, is the best possible way of picking up votes for an effort to flip the State House. If enough rural Texas voters are pissed about the school voucher votes and have started making their one, two, three hour trips for hospital care there is absolutely a coalition of city Dems and rural republicans who can get issues like public school funding and rural hospitals across the finish line while the consultants work on “BoRdeR iSSuEs” and can maintain a majority. No telling the suburb support.

    Rural healthcare and school districts are the only jobs keeping some of these spaces alive. A conservative Republican poster here has already said this issue has given him major pause thinking of not abstaining from voting but voting for a Dem.

    I can tell you've never been to Texas. You should come down to visit. Lovely weather this time of year.

  6. 4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

    ODNI: The PRC is likely to use TikTok to meddle in U.S. elections. 
     

    DJT: “You know actually TikTok isn’t that bad.” 
     

     

    Meant to multiquote this but somehow fucked it up.

    I'd actually be curious to be a fly on the wall in Chinese discussions on American elections. On the one hand, Trump clearly hurts them in the short term with his trade vendetta. It's economically destabilizing and with that comes a lot of risk for them. But Trump is also a much larger risk to American stability, which could elevate China. Long term, if Trump guts the US federal government and ushers in an economic meltdown, there's no doubt an opportunity for China.

  7. 3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

    ODNI: The PRC is likely to use TikTok to meddle in U.S. elections. 
     

    DJT: “You know actually TikTok isn’t that bad.” 
     

     

     

    1 hour ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

    he got elected because and solely because:

     

    Hillary-Crazy-Eyes-Debate.jpg

    Trump was elected because of the Electoral College. This woman received 2.9MM more votes than Trump did. For context, her popular vote margin would be a top 20 MSA and larger than the population of 13 states even today.

    Biden's margin would be the #6 MSA and larger than 35 states. Trump only has a prayer in the first place because of the Electoral College.

    • Hook 'Em 2
    • Like 1
  8. Solid B+ speech for Biden. He didn't and couldn't win the election last night but he could have lost it, and he certainly avoided that. He could have stuck the landing better at certain points and I am not thrilled with his handling of Israel but he certainly projected the energy and framed the contrast with Trump that he needs to win the election.

    Katie Britt was really just background noise but from what I saw that shit was weird. Also, Republicans putting their rising female star in the kitchen is just... Of course.

    • Hook 'Em 2
    • Like 1
  9. On 3/7/2024 at 11:24 AM, FirstTimeCaller said:

    Serious question... why?

    I can't find myself to donate to big national races. Those people will never ever have an issue with money for their campaign. Allred I could see myself doing it for things like state house races and I've done it for specific issued-focused groups.

    Allred's at a pretty significant cash disadvantage relative to Cruz and a donation now goes further than it will months from now. In general I agree with your line of thinking but Texas is a big, expensive market and it costs a lot of money to run a competitive campaign here. I'm under no illusion he will win but I want him to be competitive. Electoral politics isn't football - there are moral victories. If the GOP - which is cash strapped as fuck, by the way -  has to expend resources in TX it cannot use them elsewhere. Also, as I said, because fuck Ted Cruz.

    I won't be donating to the Biden campaign because I think you're right nationally and he has a huge cash advantage over Trump already.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  10. 15 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


    Won’t happen. He loses by 8-10 points.

    I'd take that bet. Not money line n Allred or anything, but it won't be that lopsided. Trump was +5-6 and Cornyn was +9-10 in 2020. Cruz is on the Trump support track in Texas. He won't lose, but give me 4-6 points.

    12 hours ago, chainsaw said:

    I don't like Allred's track record at all, but he's got my vote by virtue of not being Ted Cruz.

    As for charisma, I need to see him in a town hall setting with regular Texans. It's not 2018 anymore, but I'm still a big believer in the 254-county strategy with a heavy emphasis on turning out the vote in cities, suburbs, and the border.

    Beto only won 62% in the 2018 primary, just 3 points higher than Allred's win.

    Allred lost many of the same south texas counties that Beto had lost in the primary, too.

    Cruz had won by 2 points in 2018. Cornyn won by like 10 in 2020 against MJ Hegar.

    Beto raised something like $80M too, whereas Hegar only had $30M.

    Ted Cruz currently has way more total receipts than Allred, but I have a feeling that since it's not a midterm most Cruz voters are already going to be showing up to support Trump.

    If the TDP wants to make some noise, this is probably the race for them to do it. They got close in 2018, but not close enough.

    I wouldn't read much into primary turnout. In a Presidential primary year Democrats were rubber stamping an incumbent while Republicans ostensibly had a nominating contest, not to mention all the state level GOP drama. Cruz is favored, obviously, but it's been shown time and time again that you can't take anything from primaries with differing circumstances like that.

     

    Went ahead and donated to Allred. I voted Gutierrez in the primary because I don't care for Allred's conservative stances on some issues, particularly Israel, but fuck Ted Cruz.

    • Hook 'Em 5
  11. 5 hours ago, Js1 said:

    Yeah, it doesn’t matter. He could knock it out of the park and it will still be that he is “old” “senile” “sounds awful” “not important” “doesn’t change anything” 

    People see and hear what they want. Imma the aggy out front just told you that. 

    Yep. He can't win the election tonight. At best he can get people to think "Hm, maybe not as bad as I thought" before they tune out again for several months; but he can absolutely lose the election tonight with a couple missteps that get inordinate amounts of attention and reinforce that narrative.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  12. 2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

    I don't know shit about fuck but Wade being there only strengthens the argument that he didn't have the job yet, it doesn't weaken it. Unless you actually think they were planning to hire Roy Barnes as an assistant to Wade. 

    Wait, you think that? 

    Adding to this, the other way around is quite possible. Management candidates do "meet the team" interviews all the time.

  13. 19 hours ago, BamaATL said:

    The fact of the matter is that 25% of Republicans on a national level have voiced their displeasure with at least the perceived incumbent candidate.  I wish I could tell you that he was for sure going to fall over dead tomorrow, but I can't.  That having been said, the current Republican platform, which lets face it, is entirely MAGA, resonates with the same people it's always resonated with; it doesn't with the broader public; and this abundantly clear in the suburbs, particularly in the swing states.  Any defectors we peel off or just get to sit at home is just gravy on top for us.  Also bear in mind, that in 2016 it took a completely unenthused electorate behind a bad candidate combined with them getting every nut job out to vote.   They did it, and ever since that time, Democrats have been winning on every level. 

    It's scary to play a game of brinksmanship even if you think there is an 80% shot you win.  On the national level, I like many of the numbers we are seeing.    This is pretty much all going to come down to young people like yourself, and your ability to recruit your peers.   It's our biggest advantage, and frankly this group, 30 and under, will determine this outcome.   So if you are feeling down, I hope this motivates you and reinvigorates you; you will make the difference; we need you, and we need you to recruit voters.     

    Half of those voters were D/Independents that voted for Biden in 2020 and are already going to do so again. 

    18 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Biden needs a good state of the union tomorrow.

    This is by far the most important SOTU of my lifetime. I don't expect a strong one will produce a noticeably shift in public pinion in the year of our lord 2024, but projecting vitality and delivering the right message sets the foundation for the campaign, which is entering most people's minds for the first time this week(and won't again for months). The real reason it is critical, though, is that if he stumbles he will never shake the "too old" bit.

    11 hours ago, 'stache said:

    I’ll bet anyone a pizza that she endorses him. It’s gonna happen.

    Yep. She left the door open. Just wants to see what she can extract (SOS, platform concessions, who knows). 

    10 hours ago, 'stache said:

    Societies don’t generally go backwards, they progress towards more freedoms and broader opportunities.

     

    10 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

    You forgot social media. If anything, lead water pipes are reducing. 
     

    You pose an interesting idea in regards to societies not generally "going backwards." I'm not sure I agree with that. In a marco level, humanity as one society, we're a sample size of one, so I'm not sure you can say definitely that we don't go backwards, only fowards, and hell "forwards" is apparently subjective to a fuck ton of people. On a more micro level, in regards to nation states, plenty seem to go backwards in spurts. Lebanon and other middle east countries arguably have gone backwards. Many countries in Africia, and places like Haiti, seem like they've never taken a step forwards. I just don't know, man. 

    The moral arc of the universe is long and bends toward justice; but it is not linear. Societies often do go backwards.

    8 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

    Yep.  The world is going all-in on "maybe we should give this whole fascist thing a try again.....we just need some tweaks to how we did it in the 30s-40s, we'll get it right this time!"  So, here we go.   The collective "we" is going to give authoritarian, nativist fascism a try, globally.

    It's going to go EXACTLY as anyone with common sense would expect, but we just gotta touch that hot stove to see if it really is hot - I don't think it's actually hot, I think it's warm, and will warm us all up, the Deep State is lying, they just want you to believe it will burn you, why are they trying so hard to keep us from touching the stove?  They are HIDING the truth from you!  Touching the stove will SAVE US!  Do the research, sheeple!

    Yep. Canada has already been mentioned. Mexico is in the process of reverting to single-party rule. Look at Europe - Hungary, obviously; but Italy has a far right government, Erdogan consolidated power in Turkey, and the fascists have had varying degrees of electoral success across other nations. Our system is just structured in a way that they can govern as a minority without building coalitions. They can skip a step here. That's all.

    8 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

    But Buttigeig isn't in the field because Biden is sufficiently strong that he cleared the field of any challengers.

    George H.W. Bush wasn't weak because Pat Buchanan got 35% in New Hampshire in 1992.  The fact that Pat Buchanan was in the race to begin with reflected Bush's underlying weakness.  And it's a weakness that Trump shares but Biden does not.

    Democrats need to stop this fucking pity party.  It's self-defeating.  It's just going to cause people who would vote for Biden to stay home out of a sense of malaise and hopelessness.  And the true fact is that Biden has huge built-in advantages and should win this election pretty easily.

    So stop feeling sorry for yourselves like a bunch of angsty teenage bitches and get ready for a fight.  Because your fucking country depends on it.

    I Guess If You Say So GIF

    1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

    Ok I’m calling it right now:

    There will be some kind of violence on Election Day at a polling location in a blue city. Election will be suspended. Magats will claim false flag. It will be total chaos. No idea how it ends. 
     

    Not sure if I should put that into the ether, but it just seems like we are careening towards something like this. Hope I’m very wrong. 

    I too watched Succession.

    • Haha 2
  14. 6 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

    I don't understand. I'm a 6th generation Texan. How did we get here?

     

    What if this is what Texas has always been?

    • Like 3
  15. 8 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

     

    To be fair, one will be heading to a runoff. But still, this is like whe Uvalde went overwhelmingly for Abbott.

    This place isn't going to get better. I've lost hope.

    • Rage+1 1
  16. 10 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

    He won by about the same margins in rural areas, but the suburbs are where they Haley voters showed up, and that's not great news for him.  If we can just get 10% of the Haley voters to either no show or vote Biden, quite frankly either combination, things look good for us.   Nationally that sort of number would tally somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5 million to 2 million votes.  Even if you evenly distributed that across all 50 states (it's more concentrated in swing areas), that 50kish per state has pretty big implications.  

    Obviously we need to turn out, but there is plenty of soft underbelly here.  

    I don't think it's this simple. A large number of those Haley voters likely voted for Biden in 2020.

    • Hook 'Em 3
  17. 1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

    If the math is correct, in Virginia, it looks like Republicans will under perform in Virginia compared to 2016 by 50k to 100k.  

    Comparing turnout to past primaries is just spinning your wheels. They are noncompetitive rubber stamping of incumbents on both sides. Turnout is always low in those. I really wouldn't make anything of it.

  18. 3 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

    Think back to high school. Now think of all those dumb motherfuckers (stoners, dumb fucking jocks, dipshit bitches, etc) who struggled to make Cs and lower grades. They make up half of population. The majority of those dipshits are Republican voters. 

    2016 - 2024 United States is what happens when education fails, and those stupid people spread their idiocy via social media.

    I hate to break it to you but things are not going to look any better next year even if Biden wins. The status quo is essentially the best possible outcome.

  19. On 2/13/2024 at 3:49 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    Like Whitmire or not, he's getting the trash service to operate on their stated schedule. Today's recycling was picked up correctly on the schedule for the first time in a couple years.

     

    We didn't get a recycling pickup for 30 days after Whitmire was inaugurated lol

  20. 5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

    Feb and Mar of last year were historically low for their business.

    Over a longer term trend they have modest growth in volume

    image.png.01a5b8dd5e51872e5c498c5948b1dd8b.png

    The more concerning thing is worsening unit economics.  The more EVs they sell, the more money they lose.  (Is it plant expansion?)

    It is a matter of how long they continue to subsidize it from their traditional business.  Q4 Ford traditional vehicles earned 0.8B (and steadily dropping) and Ford trucks earned 1.8B. 

    Ford trucks is keeping the whole company afloat.

    image.thumb.png.1f4e671fe78d825a40b1571a2fa3e41a.png

    Yeah I was reading an interesting article the other day - can't remember if it was CNBC, WSJ, NYT, or whoever - basically detailing the pinch American automakers are in. Chinese EVs are evidently getting very cheap (like $10k-$15k/vehicle, I had no idea) and they can flood the market. Trucks + SUVs remain the revenue drivers in North America and will be counted on as such as the EV line gets up to speed, but they face pressure from those really cheap Chinese EV models. If those start eating into sales before American vehicles EVs can compete on price point they stand to lose quite a bit of market share both at home and abroad, and as you outline would be in a very precarious financial position if the EV investment doesn't pay off. Will be interesting to watch.

  21. On 2/21/2024 at 1:27 PM, Goredho said:

    https://futurism.com/chatgpt-lost-mind
     

    Uh oh.

    As The Independent reports, ChatGPT users have spent the last 24 hours or so flocking to social media to share screenshots and anecdotes of bizarre interactions with the OpenAI chatbot — which, well, appears to be losing its mind.

    Screenshots show the AI's responses to seemingly normal queries devolving into total gibberish, or simply generating way too much content. In one case highlighted by the Independent, a Redditor shared that the AI — when asked a question about coding, mind you — provided a garrulous and mostly illogical answer that included the statement: "let's keep the line as if AI in the room."

    more in the link

    ChatLobo/Cruiser/YGIFS?

  22. On 2/20/2024 at 6:56 PM, slorch said:

    Inadvertently accepted it on my Ap and got to the car and realized it was Lectric.  No big deal. It drives fine.

    That being said, where the fuck can I charge it? Some sites say you cannot use a Tesla supercharger and I am unfamiliar with the different ports/ adapters on the different vehicles.

    Is there an easy site/ link or way to look up places to charge?

    Also, if it says 186 miles of range, is 130-140miles of highway risky?

    Fire away with comments or whatever, I’m down for that, but could use a little help deciphering the code.

    Put "EV charger" into Google Maps. They'll show up. Most interstates and major metros have some level of coverage these days. Electrify America charges pretty quick (I charged a rental EV from 30% to 70% in about 20 mins in a Target parking lot) and charging is cheap. My understanding is EVs work best between 20% and 80% charge but not an expert.

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