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gmr548

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Posts posted by gmr548

  1. 5 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Feels like Tester is the new Joe Manchin in a sense that once the dems lose him, the seat is likely gone forever.  I’m not sure what the solution is long term. How many more terms could we expect from Tester?  Peltola could try running for senate in Alaska?  But I’d probably rather Peltola go the way of Don Young and stay in that seat for the next 40 years.

    seems like senate seats are scarcer for dems because the District of Columbia doesn’t have any while the GOP gets senate seats for really small states like Wyoming and north / South Dakota.

    Hot take: MT will slowly trend blue and then forcefully flip and never look back ala Colorado.

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  2. On 2/15/2024 at 2:54 PM, cochamps said:

    Florida and Kentucky seem better than the same old shit we've been getting.  jmo.

     

    On 2/15/2024 at 3:55 PM, dcar00 said:

    Florida in a normal year is gonna be a big game. just happen to be down now.

    Kentucky is basically OK State but at least it is different.

     

    On 2/16/2024 at 6:56 AM, cochamps said:

    Still like those two better than Kansas and OK St.   Been there and sone that...

    This is honestly fantastic evidence of the power of brands in CFB. Kansas + OSU >> Florida + Kentucky on the field the past couple years. OSU especially, the typical Gundy OSU team over the past 15 years would be the third or fourth best team on Texas's schedule this coming season while Kentucky and Florida will be also rans. Over that time OSU would be the tougher opponent over Florida more often than not. But because Florida is a helmet school and Kentucky is SECSECSEC we get takes like these.

    Not wrong of course - ultimately it's a purely subjective matter - just interesting to see play out after years of us bashing the SEC as overrated on this site.

     

     

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  3. On 2/14/2024 at 10:30 AM, closetojumping said:

    I've never taken a train in North America. I've heard that Amtrak is a city bus on rails and is to be avoided at all costs. Is there a nicer version that would be worth it? I've ridden numerous trains throughout Europe and would highly recommend those. You can pretty much plan an entire trip, for whatever cities you want to see, by train only for most of Europe. 

    NE corridor Amtrak is fine. Nice even relative to flying or sitting in traffic on 95.

    The Pacific coast route is supposedly stunning and a very nice way to cover some ground on a trip out that way.

    That's about it lol.

  4. 3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    This is a terrible take and you should feel bad. Games against good teams are fun and provide a focus for the team. We should do that every year- have a big September OOC game- preferably week 2. 
    Please God let this be the last 8 game conference schedule. 

    Yep. The gameday buzz around a highly anticipated OOC matchup after a long offseason and the opportunity for novel road trips are two of the best parts of the college football fan experience.

    This is supposed to be fun. Playing Michigan is more fun than playing Colorado State. 

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  5. 2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    so Cruz wins 59-41

     

     

     

    1 minute ago, kevwun said:

    8-10% imo.

    Cornyn won by 9.5 in 2020, he'll underperform that. 4-6 sounds right to me, but never in doubt. Kind of like Trump in 2020.

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  6. 21 hours ago, Js1 said:

    4 committee chairs calling it quits. They know 

    I've been surprised at the characterization of the House as a tossup this year. To me, Democrats are strong favorites. Not quite a strong as the GOP in the Senate, but it's definitely a Democratic lean for me. Seems maybe the GOP is realizing that.

  7. 5 hours ago, Tailgate said:

    I’m just pumped about Saturdays at DKR during football season from this year moving forward. There are going to be some epic matches here in ATX. I’ve waited many years, like a lot of us, for the type of schedules we are seeing now for home games.

    LFG!

    \m/

     

     

    Really need the ninth SEC game and for them to rebalance the A&M and Arkansas home/away years. The home schedule this year is Georgia and the six dwarves.

  8. 4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

    I get that, but again, I just wanted to pull a single, quick, easy-to-download dataset for each state. None of the indicators should be taken as gospel, but it gets at tendencies. Take, for example, this map posted by @Hornius Emeritus showing how the vote for each county would be if it voted the same as the largest city in each county. You see a lot of counties flipping. Population density tends to favor Democrats.

    Lubbock, Potter (Amarillo), Nueces (Corpus), and Bell (Temple-Killeen) go blue under that scenario.

     

    Yeah I'm not knocking your methodology just pointing out that Texas is kind of culturally weird in that regard.

    Case in point: College Station. Brazos County would be the 10th largest county in GA, 12th largest in NC (and just a few thousand from #8, weird cluster right at 235k), fifth largest county in AZ, 10th largest in MI, etc etc. In Texas, much like aggy football's national stature, it is fringe top 25. No one is referring to aggyland as an urban center, but you add it together with Bell, Brazoria, Lubbock, Nueces, and McLennan Counties and you've gone and cancelled out Democrats' largest raw vote margin in Dallas County.

    This state won't flip until the suburbs electoral preferences reflect their demographics as opposed to their lilly white southern evangelical roots.

  9. 2 hours ago, bolverk said:

    Thanks. I used the Census definition of urban mainly because it was a very easy dataset to pull from their website. I could've done something else, say, the share of the population living in counties with more than 500,000 people, but that would've taken a lot more work. But, still, in the aggregate, I think urban vs. rural works out mas o menos since most of the literature I've read is that greater population density has a strong correlation with voting Democratic.

    image.png.f7f35c0e8f115ead6fc540bf97139636.png

    https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/geography/guidance/geo-areas/urban-rural.html

    Urban/rural is a weird split to pin down in Texas. There are very conservative rural areas that are part of the major MSAs due to being located in a given county. There are places like Bell County, Lubbock County, Nueces County, etc. that no one would really call culturally urban but have populations north of 250k-300k and would be top five or ten counties in most swing states.

  10. On 2/14/2024 at 8:52 AM, Storm the Field said:

    I think this is a bit of a stretch based on a hot January CPI report. CPI spiked last January too. Several wonks pointed out that a lot of the overshoot came from an unexpected blip in OER, which doesn't seem to match up with other data concerning rents. 

    GGOZs1UXwAAmiGM?format=jpg&name=medium

    Now, if February and March numbers don't get back on track, "no rate cuts in 2024" might be more reasonable, but let's take a breather for a second.

    OER is the most ridiculously stupid "statistic" I have ever seen and the fact that it is included in any official surveys or inflation calculations is mind bogglingly dumb. It's literally a made up number.

    CPI rent data isn't great either - it's likely propping up headline inflation now just as it likely sold it short at the peak - but at least it is rooted in real numbers.

    I don't know what Zillow's observed rent index is but keep in mind they are so good at projecting rent growth and valuations that they lost their ass as an iBuyer.

  11. 1 minute ago, Js1 said:

    This is facts, but part of it feels temporary.  Eventually, the climate and water issues are going to send more Democratic-leaning constituencies north into the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic from the South/Sun Belt. 

    But for the next 10-20 years, yeah, Dems will have an easier time winning AZ, CO, GA and eventually NC, while seeing some losses in Wisconsin.  Michigan and Pennsylvania seems to be on the way out for the GOP - the Philly suburbs are absolutely sprinting away from the GOP, big time, as are the Detroit suburbs. 

    Nevada is always weird, but the Reid machine is still kicking in LV and keeping NV just on the edge of staying blue. 

    Absolutely temporary. These things go in cycles, just looking at the short to mid-term future under the current paradigm. If it isn't something else beforehand, climate-induced migration will absolutely lead to a new alignment.

  12. 53 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

    I've got family there, they say immigration/border issue is top issue there. Very anti-immigrant crowd, fear of changing the American way as they know it resonating loudly.  It's the mass out of control immigration that concerns them most.

    Makes sense. Clearly the Iowa economy would be unleashed if only the low-paid immigrants in agriculture, construction, and food processing could just be removed. I mean, there are so many Americans lining up to take those jobs that Iowa has reduced child labor standards. Yep, no labor shortage in Iowa, just mass out of control immigration.

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  13. 6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Nevada and Georgia are trending our way. Don’t think it’s able to be stopped or reversible in anyway either. Thank god for that too because the same trends have put Ohio, Florida, and Iowa pretty much totally out of reach for the dems.

    If the realignment sparked by Trump holds, there is ultimately going to be a new blue wall formed in the Sun Belt. NV, AZ, NM, CO, GA, and NC. I'm bearish on it but there's an argument to throw Texas in there at least as a competitive state (wouldn't it be ironic if Trump's border wall was 110 Democratic EVs from CA to TX).

    Regardless, Republicans could sweep WI-MI-PA (I am not high on GOP prospects in PA long term) and still not get over the line if they continue to bleed suburban voters in these key states.

  14. On 2/8/2024 at 1:08 PM, BurntOrange&White said:

    Honestly, I wouldn't judge ticket prices for next year based off last years for two reasons. One of those being the success we had last year and the other being the 1st year in the SEC.

     

    On 2/8/2024 at 1:13 PM, TrashMaster G said:

    We also have a 7th home game this year. 

     

    On 2/8/2024 at 1:14 PM, BurntOrange&White said:

    True I forgot about that. Having that extra home game a year is going to be huge especially if SEC continues with the 8 conference games. Also said game should NEVER be played anywhere but home.

    My renewal is actually a lower per game price this year. Thanks Biden.

  15. 2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

    Fucking lovely ….

     

    This will be forgotten by the start of next week but if anything it will help Biden. MAGA election denying has been a huge loser in AZ. The more discussed it is the better. It's also a non-binding resolution that has no teeth, likely would not get through AZ's very closely divided legislature (31-29 House, 16-14 Senate), and is DOA on the Governor's desk. Beyond the actual substance of the election integrity issue, it's easy to point to this and remind voters the GOP is wasting their time on pointless nonsense instead of sending Hobbsbills that might actually accomplish something.

    1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

    Well, that's a fucking weird set of resolutions in Arizona:  Boy Scout of the Year, Changing the State Flower, and Democracy Upheaval for Trump.  Totally tracks.

    They're litmus testing shit with ballot initiatives, resolutions, and court delays in performative theatrics as a beta-test for what they can really do between November 2024-January 2025.  This is gonna get weird.

     

    1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

    Sounds like they are spooked about something.

    They are spooked because AZ has continued to import young people and middle class families priced out of SoCal and they've started losing elections. The state is at the tossup stop right now given the political environment but it's obvious AZ is on the same bus line as Nevada and Colorado were in the 2000's.

  16. On 2/13/2024 at 1:26 PM, Red Five said:

    I just can't take any more of the "Are these two old guys really the best we can do?" shit, even coming out of Jon Stewart. 

    Like if the two finalists for Texas football coach were, say, Pete Carroll, and Jerry Sandusky. "Man, those are our choices? A couple of old dudes..."

     

    On 2/13/2024 at 1:37 PM, 4th&Five said:

    That's pretty much how I saw it too.  These are our 2 choices.  Is it optimal that they're both old as fuck? No, but we don't need 20 minutes on why Joe probably shouldn't be running again.  All Trumpers are going to show up and vote for Trump.  We don't need folks on "our side" giving anyone a reason to sit this one out.

     

    1 hour ago, safe sex said:

    I certainly didn't expect him to never jab at Biden, but Stewart's caricature wasn't even based in the reality of Biden's age. He was acting like someone with advanced dementia. It was gratuitous, and maybe if the SC report hadn't come out earlier it wouldn't have bothered me so much. 

    Guys, it's a comedy show with an audience that skews younger, better informed, and more liberal than cable news. It's going to be okay, and it was funny. Also a big part of the bit was pointing out Biden gave these answers under deposition and comparing them to even more ridiculous memory lapses from the Trumps in the same situation.

    Touch some grass.

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  17. 30 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

    I was just hoping that Longhorn legend (and Bevo tattoo recipient) Kyle Shanahan would finally get the "chokes away a double digit least in the superb owl" monkey off his back and win one.

    Heh. So much for that.

    KC winning and pissing off MAGA is a very nice consolation prize. As is Omenihu getting a ring, even though he was out from his injury. Say what you will about Romo, he mentioned how much missing Charles O. was hurting the Chiefs. Talk nicely about Longhorns, you're gonna make me like you.

    Honestly if anything I was rooting for the 49ers because I like Shanahan is a Texas Ex and I like the way they're built. And despite the Vegas line they certainly felt like the  underdog. Shanahan kind of Sarked it but oh well. NFl playoffs have been a really good product the past few years. Also didn't think Romo was bad at all.

    I'm pretty neutral on the whole Taylor Swift thing aside from enjoying watching people get so irrationally riled up. I did enjoy MAGA being caught between the weird Taylor Swift conspiracies and having to root for San Francisco, knowing that absent the whole Swift saga most of them would openly root for KC to own the libs of SF, as if that has any bearing on professional sports (and as if KC is not a liberal city). Not to mention the while kneeling for the anthem thing (I was told they were not watching the NFL anymore in the first place?) originated there. 

     

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  18. 48 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

    That tweet is astoundingly stupid.

    I actually agree with this, though probably not for the same reasons. It's low effort pandering and if anything gives fuel to the idea that the POTUS has an real control over consumer prices.

    41 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    So....it will resonate loudly with the American people.  That's just good campaign work right there.  The last decade or so has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, you gotta speak fluent stupid if you want to have any chance of winning.

    But, yeah, this. Maybe the stupid is the point. Seems to work pretty well for Republican messaging.

  19. On 2/10/2024 at 6:15 PM, Js1 said:

    Anyone who still claims the media is biased towards democrats should be kneed in the balls 

    That is absolutely my takeaway from the past week or two in the news cycle.

    I mean, in reality the truth has been evident for a while but the way Biden and Trump have been covered in recent weeks really lays it bare. I mean, for fuck's sake, Trump justsaid he would encourage Russia to attack NATO allies and it is barely news.

    The establishment "liberal" media are happy to prop Trump up for eyeballs, that is their real allegiance. 

    2 minutes ago, South Austin said:

    He was a pretty substandard recruiter. Our WR talent dropped over the course of his time on Mack’s staff.

    Jeff Bridges Reaction GIF

    Don't Football Board the CR.

  20. To @David Dennison's point on Millennials, I disagree. I think that bloc saw the margin thin between 2012 and 2022 because a lot more 26-41 year olds participate than do 18-30 year olds, and Trump in particular has activated a previously non-engaged segment of the electorate for the GOP. 2022 vs 2012 generic ballot also isn't the best apples to apples comparison given the presidential vs midterm and party-in-power dynamics.

    Long term, Millennials came of age as GWB's popularity tanked post-Iraq and Katrina, and the economy followed; saw Obama get elected and lead the recovery only for the GOP to completely meltdown, and have watched the MAGA movement grow as they enter their prime earning and family-rearing years. The Republican brand is probably going to be toxic to Millennials in aggregate as long as it remotely resembles what it does today.

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