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gmr548

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Posts posted by gmr548

  1. 10 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

    I'm telling y'all, watch that Buttigieg video when you have time. There is not a better mind in the Democratic Party, he is a generational political figure and needs to be most influential member of the party now. What he said in this interview 7.5 years ago resonates even more today.

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    10 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

    Buttigieg ran for DNC chair in 2017. Since he'll be out of a government job soon, I'd love to see him run again if he's up for it.ย 

    This is an interview he did after running in 2017, and I think he understands the bigger picture more than anyone else high up in the party.ย  I highly recommend watching.ย 

    ย 

    I like Pete. I do. He's obviously a very smart guy and seems to have a big heart.

    But in light of the complete faceplant in the CR with such confidence in Harris, the board's thirsting for Pete as a candidate gives me pause.

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  2. 4 hours ago, Frank Drebin said:

    Most liberal women are both unattractive and annoying, no matter what success they might have professionally.ย  Young males are better off avoiding them. Look at single women.ย  They are overwhelmingly liberal and were the misfit type in high school and college.ย  Married women are not.ย  They lean GOP and were more the sorority type in college.

    Most men don't give a shit if their wives are successful professionals.ย  Most value a host of other things before their mate's earning potential.ย Plenty of attractive and conservative women.ย  Those are the ones who get married and are happy with life.ย  Many could be very successful professionals -- have my friends' wives (and mine) have MDs, MBAs, or JDs.ย  But most give that up once they have kids.ย  That's what it's like in my social circle.ย  Maybe 10% of the wives keep their careers as it is too difficult to balance with raising kids.ย  And my friends and I make enough where we don't need dual incomes.

    I think young males seeking mates and liberal professionally successful women don't want each other equally.

    This is the only post I have negged of any of the texaggy crowd making the rounds in the CR and the only one I will. You almost stumbled into a point but just couldn't the resist the call to be as cunty as possible. It's hilarious to me that this old man behind a keyboard who hasn't been called "young" by anyone in decades is waxing on about young single men and women like you know shit about the real world outside your bubble.

    I am actually really glad that you were born into generational wealth and your wife decided that was worth the trade off of living life with you. We both know you'd have shot up a school or a Taylor Swift concert or something by now if that wasn't the case. She's a literal life saver.

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  3. 1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    In looking at the outstanding races, Iโ€™m guessing that it will end up 53-47 GOP. Rosen has to catch up to win but the outstanding votes are in Vegas. She will take it. ย Too bad Casey looks to just be missing out in PA but maybe there are some mail in votes left in Philly. Sucks but I went to sleep last night thinking it was 55-45. Small victories.

    In looking ahead to 2026, the Dems have 2 tough races Ossoff (GA) and Peters (MI) while GOP will have strong challenges with Collins (ME), Ernst (IA), Tillis (NC). Usually the midterms are bad for the party in power but you never know.

    of course Iโ€™m counting on Kari Lake losing but she is surprisingly making it a close race. Wow.

    2026 midterms are going to look a lot like 2018 because it's the same map, same unpopular president, and same political alignments. Republicans just won't pick up low hanging fruit in the Senate because there isn't any for them.

    Democrats will pick up two Senate seats tops in 2026. I don't think Iowa is realistic but they could get ME and NC to potentially have a shot at a majority in 2028 (WI and NC).

  4. 3 hours ago, horncyclist said:

    Did anyone ever answer the House outcome question? I'm still seeing NY Times showing very easy path to control for the dems. That would provide some protection for the next two years at least. Followed by the typical mid-term losses for party in the Whitehouse. It'd provide some oversight to the insanity that's about to come and block the worst of government dismantling.ย 

    Trending R by just a couple seats but it's going to be a week or two as final results are tallied out west and in extremely close races all around. There is still an avenue, though I wouldn't hold your breath.

    It's honestly pretty odd; the shift at the presidential level is significant by today's polarized standards. Senate results have mostly converged within a point. And yet Democrats appear to have fought to more or less a stalemate in the House.

    59 minutes ago, Pancho said:

    The map for the future doesnโ€™t look too bright for Dems either.ย 

    The 2030 apportionment map shows R states picking up 12 electoral votes and D states losing 13

    Population trends over the rest of the decade are unlikely to simply be extrapolated 2021-23 trends. Similar directionally, sure, but not as extreme. Also GA and NC should not be called res states. Yes, they went GOP this round but their margins are in line with the Rust Belt and confirm battleground status.

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  5. 23 minutes ago, linux said:

    Were they enslaved 20 years ago? somthing big changed dude like really badly you just don't see because you aged out, and to offset it women are not voting against a turbo misoginist 45% voted for him. incel rage might be enough because it was razor thin margin, but this is alarm bells level of we are going to go through a major war level of alarmism.

    You've only got to go back 50-60 years to get to a point where no fault divorce was illegal, women could not have independent banking or credit accounts, there were no protections or rights with regard to reproductive healthcare, and public universities were male-only (whoop!).

    I guess I don't know whether you'd define that as sexual enslavement but it's certainly second class citizenship, and it's very obviously the goal. The edgy ones in the GOP sphere don't eve bother talking around it anymore.

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  6. 6 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

    Let's see what the next 2 years brings before we can wrestle some control of the legislative branch back.ย  Most important to avoid a war involving NATO and complete cratering of the economy by tariffs and contraction of available labor.ย  Probably a 50-50 shot at best for either.

    Sad to say, but we will have to deal with voting rights, women's rights, and climate change maybe afterwards depending on how well democrats do in 2026.ย  Will be interesting to see movement patterns within the US in the next two years.

    There's still a legitimate path to a Democratic House, but either way Democrats are going to dominate the 2026 midterms. I can tell you that right now just because we know that 1.) The midterm electorate favors Democrats now in the way it used to favor Republicans; and 2.) Trump will be an unpopular President.

    It basically won't matter what they trot out there. Democrats will have a major House majority after 2026. The Senate map is unfriendly and they'll net two seats, tops (NC and ME).

    That will put a check on the most batshit legislation but won't stop anything when it comes to establishing an extremely right-wing judiciary.

  7. 8 hours ago, Captain Obvious said:

    At this point, it's probably dicey to even nominate a minority male unless you've got another Obama/lightning in a bottle candidate.

    Need to find another centrist white male who won't rock the boat.ย  That'll certainly anger the progressive portion of the party, but at this point we're past "fool me twice, shame on you" territory.ย 

    ย 

    3 hours ago, boilerhorn said:

    NSIAP - she only got 78% in Philadelphia.ย  Lowest I can find - Kerry got 80% in 2004.
    FAR fewer votes than Biden.

    D's need to do a post mortem on this and craft a good plan for 2026.ย  Like it or not, it's clear Harris was not a good candidate.ย  And that die was cast in 2020, when she was chosen as the de facto successor to Biden.ย  Biden chose to step down too late.ย  etc.ย  And, her plans did not resonate with voters.ย  SMH.

    ย 

    I'm not sure I buy that another milquetoast, Republican lite appeal is the play after several cycles of underperformance and defeat with that approach. We're not going to out-Republican them and that's not even a goal really worth winning for. There has to be a clear moral contrast and a push for structural reform. Trump is a symptom, not a disease.

    Harris was a good candidate in the context. She was dealt a tough hand, unprecedented in modern history. Hell, she was theย onlyย choice with Biden stepping aside when he did. If Biden was going to step aside, 2023 was the time. That's on him and the Democratic Party more so than Harris.

    @aggie08ย was correct in his assessment that Biden's legacy is going to go down the toilet. To be fair, the Democratic apparatus owns some blame there too. Biden would have won in 2016, but I don't know that the party was keen on him running.

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  8. 19 minutes ago, immamac said:

    Joe Biden delayed what now seems inevitable. The American people did this to themselves. Trump didn't force anyone to vote for him.ย 

    America isn't a monolith, but it has lacked accountability and strong moral direction for a significant portion of my life. This is a sign of an eroded society incapable of accountability or collective goodwill. The American you live in isn't changing, the feeling you feel now is what brisket has been talking about. Trump is a symptom, he's not the disease. The American population is sick (unhealthy) and a lot of people thought defeating Trump in this election would turn the page and put things on the mend. After tonights result, even if a few hundred thousand people switched their votes and the outcome was different I don't believe for one second that it would heal America. There's something deeply wrong with a large majority of the country.ย 

    I just want be fair after clowning on you earlier - this is a good, insightful post.

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  9. 1 hour ago, ztejas said:

    I think why dems are nervous right now is why I have felt confident about Trump winning for awhile now.ย 

    I don't think the young voter in this country respects the democratic party ideal or mission anymore. They haven't seen it put into action in an effective manner.

    I also think that black and hispanic voters are some of the hardest hit by inflation and current economic conditions and they simply want a change. They aren't getting the answers that they need under the current administration.ย 

    I - also - think that there are a lot of Americans that have voted for massive issues such as abortion or climate change and then seen nothing done about it whether at a state or federal level - regardless of who they have voted for.

    Right or wrong - justified or not - this has been my take for awhile now and I think it's going to play out and I think Trump is going to win.ย 

    I'm sorry and y'all can call me a bigot or fascist or whatever but this is just the way that I see it.ย 

    Y'all are negging this but there is some truth to it. That doesn't necessarily excuse ignorance or worse at the individual level, but Dems got caught holding the post-COVID inflation bag and weren't able to competently message their way out of it.

    54 minutes ago, Chopper said:

    PA will be won be KH/TW. Be concerned about WI.

    image.thumb.png.745c29e7337fd76c3f5746e38161f690.png

    There's not really a reason to worry about any of them more than the other. Trump is going 7-7.

    46 minutes ago, flatdawgs said:

    Same here in WA. Everything I voted for passed/will pass. May need to close the Cascade and Sierra passes, but we'll let the Chili's brigade in.

    I have not had a burning desire to move back to TX but it's pretty sad to know moving home is functionally off the table as a 30-something considering having children.

    36 minutes ago, Pancho said:

    Nearly every statewide Dem is winning in NC except for Harris

    ย 

    Make it make sense?

    Cult 45 and running a black woman in the south.

    8 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

    Be thankful theyโ€™re incompetent. ย The next despot wannabe that wins may be the real deal. ย Hope we learn some lessons and move on. ย This fucking blows but it absolutely is not the end of the republic as we know it. ย 
    ย 

    Sure hope so. Really need Democrats to flip the House. They are holding up okay so far.ย 

    At an absolute minimum, Ukraine and the judiciary are fucked, and whatever Biden was able to get Israel to hold off on is now on the table.

    I do have a feeling we just cemented our fate as a dysfunctional failed state for the rest of my life.

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  10. 3 minutes ago, immamac said:

    This is looking way fucking better than 2016 and is on pace to be about the same as 2020 with an outside chance of overperforming and a good chance of slightly underperforming but still getting to 270.ย 

    Everyone being a bitch needs to chill the fuck out until the enormous cities with 65/35 splits or better come in.ย 

    You have a well established track record of being fantastically wrong, and low and behold, Philly is 2/3rds in and Allegheny is 91%.

  11. 1 minute ago, B00M said:

    For fuck sake, Trump is the single shittiest candidate of all time. Harris is not a bad candidate. The dem platform is the issue if she loses.ย 

    The campaign is the platform to some degree so they can be hard to separate. In general I agree, the issues where Democrats are weakest is where they try to be Republican lite.

    There is backlash against incumbent governments across the western world coming out of post-COVID inflation and general degradation of the social contract. The US is not immune to that. I do not believe this is a HRC situation.

    3 minutes ago, troph said:

    Although those are all trump states anyway.

    Yes, the noted Trump states of IL, VA, NJ, NY, DE, VT, etc.

  12. 10 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    Black voters underperformed in EV and didnโ€™t show up in required numbers today. Also, look at Tarrant, Collin and Denton Counties. It looks like college whites shifted to the right this cycle. You can see a similar pattern in Hillsborough and Duval Co, FL.ย 

    Southern and northern college educated whites behave differently in elections. That's basically the Democratic path at this point.

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