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Posts posted by gmr548
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1 hour ago, Js1 said:
Oh look they caught the guy who was setting fire to ballot collection boxes in AZ
I thought it was ANTIFA????
Exactly what I would have produced if asked to sketch the perp without any additional info.
1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:So like I been saying
1) It is possible but unlikely that the pollsters are materially underestimating Trump again
2)It is possible but somewhat less likely that the pollsters are bang on the actual results
3) It is possible that the pollsters are underestimating harris and somewhat more likely than 1 or 2.Yeah, I'm sorry, historical trends from the 20th century just aren't relevant. Different world, and Trump and Cult 45 are different beasts than anything observed in that window.
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8 hours ago, Chilly Water said:
That’s a shame. If she wants to make inroads with the “bros” or young, white male demo that they’re worried Trump has, then make the time.
She's the sitting VPOTUS and is crisscrossing the country to spend time in swing states, of which TX is not one. Trump is unemployed and has kept a light campaign schedule. They are not the same and it's unreasonable for Rogan to look at them as such.
8 hours ago, Chilly Water said:No disagreement on that here. 36 million views is a lot though, and a 3 hour podcast, if she can hold her own, could be a game changer for her.
Oh come on. This is weird Rogan bro shit.
2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:The increasing loudness of some Wall Street leaders saying that Trump will win tells me that they’re unsure that Harris is slightly leading.
If they truly thought the race was over, they would just sit back and do whatever behind the scenes that would make them and their client the most money. Instead they’re trying to move the needle ever so much by telling everyone the race is over.
I generally buy the idea that it's a close race but the "coastal elite" - for lack of a better term for the corporate/political class - consensus that Trump is going to win a statistically tied race feels pretty 2016-y. I get that the financial sector positioning for a Trump win is really the only play because Kamala is essentially status quo, but still.
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3 hours ago, Dahobbs said:
Sushi has never been right about anything. His whole posting history is him being stupendously wrong.
Isn't he the guy who wrote novels about the greatness of the Tom Herman offense?
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14 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:
It blows my mind that Democratsare back to fucking voting on election day. WHY THE FUCK ARE YOU DOING THAT? It increases the chances of disenfranchisement so fucking much.
This worries me quite a bit. Election Day is already ripe for violence from MAGA. If there's any sense of advantage heading into ED from the Republican side, that could be the push some of these Nazis need to go intimidate voters, or even bomb/shoot up a polling place.
To say nothing of the more benign factors like bad weather, flat tire, unexpected work demands, sick kid, whatever else that can keep you from getting to the polls as planned when you reduce it to a single day.
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3 hours ago, LonghornSean said:
Noted election analyst Elon has been reading this thread
Elon admits Biden won. What a fucking cuck.
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6 hours ago, BearSchlong said:
How do they cure this? Special election?5 hours ago, Chopper said:update/correction - many ballots destroyed in Vancouver. Only 2 in Portland.
Vancouver by the way was the staging point for the nazis who'd regularly commute to Portland to try to stir up trouble, until they got their asses whooped. They'd all meet in their fascist friend's Vancouver basement apartment before carpooling to Portland. Lots of white supremacist types like @incredulity live there.
WA has pretty accommodating voter laws so the folks that dropped their ballots at that location that day will have a chance to resubmit them. There's really no way to know who did, though, so it's about getting word out.
5 hours ago, flatdawgs said:Spoklahoma.
Spokane is actually a pleasant enough purply-blue city with some excellent golf courses that always seems on the cusp of boom or collapse, and never does either. I have a lot of family history there; g-g-grandparents moved there 125 years ago with their little girl, who grew up and married there and had my grandmother (all three houses they lived in are still there). They all eventually moved to Seattle, though. /csb
The drive from Montana to Spoke isn't bad; it's pretty much through the Rockies the whole way, albeit not the super-scenic parts. It's the drive west from Spokane to Ellensburg that seriously sucks for this part of the country.
My impression from my brief time as a WA resident is that Spokane is for if you are too Idaho for Seattle but not Idaho enough for Idaho.
5 hours ago, quigley said:What's the data point? I click the link and see only the prose.
The data point is Trump +4 in Kansas is an unusually low margin for a Republican, from a pollster that has at least some recent success there.
I doubt the margin actually finishes that low but the sentiment that there will be some weird results rings true. Just as the majority of Trump's gains among men of color will be in noncompetitive states where people of color actually live - CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, NJ, etc. - the country club Republican defections are likely to produce weird margins in solidly red states.
2 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:Things are going great.
Jesus Christ. This country is in a shameful place.
Reason number one million and one I hope Harris wins: So the defamation lawsuit can proceed.
1 hour ago, Pancho said:Welp…not sure if it’s panic time on Nevada or not
Nevada's gone. Apologies to @Js1. They caught the white whale.
57 minutes ago, Anastasis said:Jesus. Imagine being so clueless that you don't know your partners political beliefs.
Imagine being so clueless that you think there aren't women out there either avoiding the topic or nodding and smiling to avoid something between an argument with a cult member and a beating.
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22 minutes ago, Hookem10 said:
It was cool seeing Pavia face after getting tackled. The face of “ these guys are big and fast holy shit “. That was the best thing besides the w. Much like ok freshman qb. Our defense can run. Hopefully they get healthier and play with more confidence cause I think they can win a few for us if needed.
Yeah. I don't have a lot more to say on the offensive issues that hasn't already been expressed in some way.
The defense played a really strong game today. What Vanderbilt got, they earned. The defense is a nationally elite unit that will keep Texas in every game and will likely win a couple more outright like it did this one. Wish it didn't have to, but the fact that it can is pretty cool.
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8 hours ago, TexEx15 said:
AOC is going to smoke him and we'll be pushing for her to be installed as QB1 over the bye.
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9 hours ago, Dbeasy said:
You people have my head spinning. The level of confidence here on a Harris win is very exciting given the public media stories and polls.
But, I recall eight years ago and this group was also highly confident. So, do we have that situation again?
I can’t remember the general tone four years ago, but I think there was a genuine lack of clarity one way or the other? Can’t remember.
Personally, I was very confident four years ago. What doubt I had was purely 2016 PTSD. Biden's lead in polls was just too wide. We got a historic polling error and he still won.
I'm not at all confident of anything either way this year. I'm def not biting on the anecdata about everyone's Republican friends adding up to be this huge chunk of defections to the D side. Like everyone else, we all live in our own bubbles.
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3 hours ago, HtownHorn said:
Damn, Nussmeier throws a beautiful deep ball. Gives his WRs the chance to make plays.
This aged like milk
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1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:
Quinn had a decent game but looked way worse because of a terrible OL that left him vulnerable to sacks. His two interceptions were a combination of bad luck combined with a lack of pocket movement around the rush. So he’s somewhat responsible for those but not fully. He wasn’t as bad as this thread is saying. He was horrible a week ago for sure. Our OL is suddenly garbage.
He was better today but not consistently good. A few really nice throws. Serviceable on a plurality of snaps; but the balance - way too much - was "wtf was that!?"
Honestly he landed in that grey area where a coach isn't going to see enough to bench him but accomplishing big goals like an SEC championship or playoff run become hard to picture.
You are right about the OL. By far their worst game of the year in pass pro today, Georgia included. I'd say they run blocked well enough at least except for the fucking holding calls that killed drive after drive.
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1 hour ago, WinningIsHard said:
He helped us win the big 12 which Vince and Colt only one once each by the way, go to our first CFP, and he’s going to take us to the sec championship game. Our defense is filthy, I just want Quinn to not turn the ball over and our OL to block wayyyyyyyyyy better. That’s it. If he transfers though it’s fuckin stupid to think a program like Alabama, Oregon, Ohio state etc won’t take him and win a bunch of games with him.
Texas is going to win a bunch of game with him and unless there's some improbable get right moment over the bye week, he's still not going to lead Texas to any hardware goals.
To the extent there's ill will toward him in the fanbase that's underserved and those people should probably go find a hobby or seek therapy or something, but if this is what Texas is going to get out of him the rest of the season it will be time to move on. As planned, by the way. I think everyone, Ewers and camp included, knew that going into the year.
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21 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:
You’re as bad as any Quinn stan just flipped. The offensive line is getting their ass kicked regardless of what’s going on behind them. It can be both you simple fuck.
The eyebrow raising thing today is that Quinn wasn't much better in terms of pocket presence and the OL was honestly worse than the Georgia game. Some of that is likely obvious game script - when you're starting drives 1st and 20 it tends to help the pass rush - but they drew those flags too.
Good time for a bye week. Unlike Ewers I think the OL can get it together.
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I'm about 25 mins into the Trump Rogan interview. Rogan has asked just a few questions and basically just lets Trump ramble. And for the most part Trump comes off as harmless. Like your dipshit boomer uncle who is always embellishing stories and injecting hot takes to the point you just laugh and blow him off. obviously a lot of what he says is nonsense but that's always the case and Rogan certainly doesn't push back. Although as I type this Rogan is getting a little sycophant-y talking about how dangerous the job of POTUS is, especially for Trump.
Probably not going to listen to this while thing because it's almost 3 hours. Did get a Kamala ad lol. I don't think this will move the needle much at all. Maybe get a few Rogan listeners off their ass to vote for Trump.
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2 minutes ago, Chopper said:I don't pretend to have any degree of confidence in how this election will go, but you've got some nerve coming to Surly and implying people spending their time posting on the internet are detached from reality.
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2 hours ago, Tex Long said:
What's impressive is falling into the Sarchasm head-first while calling Texas "they".
My b then. Can never assume on this board lol
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1 hour ago, Pancho said:
Well the alternative for the day is watching Michigan-MSU, not surprised people would rather stand in line.
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4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:
When Harris wins this thing, there better be a goddamn reckoning in the mainstream media. You venture outside of this thread and the national narrative is Trump is on the verge of pulling away with this thing and Democrats are sad sack crying everywhere.
.500 would make you the GOAT as a MLB hitter or NBA 3 point shooter, and give your team a non-zero shot at the NFL playoffs (before 17th game). So 1/2 ain't bad.
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18 hours ago, Tex Long said:
Or, who knows, maybe someone's headset comms lines or frequencies got crossed when they were fucking with them at the start of the game, when Kirby complained about them?
Texags grade cope. Impressive.
18 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:lol it's a road conference game against a 5-2 opponent that's already beaten Alabama. Texas just needs to win the game. I think they'll do so pretty comfortably even if unspectacularly, but they just need to win. Bye week, Florida scrimmage, and another week of practice to sort out any hypothetically festering QB issue before Arkansas.
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6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:
Before everyone jumps on you: the markets are a bit of a self selecting investor pool. Mostly male and young. It’s like if you asked your fantasy football group.
Or if the line on a Texas game was set purely based on action from Texas fans.
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19 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:
Polls have sample sizes of hundreds or a couple of thousand. Early voting has sample size of millions. It’s not theoretical or speculative. All polling is based on modeling from past elections. There has never been a gender gap like this in turnout. If Harris wins by a surprising number, this will be why pollsters didn’t see it coming.
Those are good numbers in general and excellent numbers in the Rust Belt + GA. I've never paid close attention to the gender breakdown of the electorate, so I have no idea if we should expect that gap to close on or leading up to election day. NV is gone but it's the least important swing state.
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2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:
1) The Harris rally was epic. It seems like it broke through the noise for her in a way that nothing else really has this month.
That's as attributable to this being a Texas board as anything else. Beyonce always helps though.
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4 hours ago, Born to Run said:
I disagree and really was hoping for her to go on there. Shit ton of young males need to be reached plus the Tik Tok crowd. We can't keep ignoring this demo. And she's tough enough to brush back any bullshit he might ask.
I sadly know a lot of moderate types that listen to JR bc "he has interesting guests." I'm talking otherwise fairly progressive people including a dude that had Tim Walz as an teacher in HS.
I think it would have created a lot of positives.
I generally agree with this sentiment, but if Joe Rogan can't accommodate the sitting Vice President of the United States by agreeing to reasonable terms - whether that be studio security, acknowledging there are going to be some questions she cannot answer, arranging a remote interview, whatever - then he can kiss VPOTUS's ass.
For the record, again, we have no idea if any of this happened because the source is the Travis County GOP clown.
4 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:jet stream of bullshit
Your wife also listens to I've Had It, I see.
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6 hours ago, wildcat09 said:
Oh, and this shit too. So infuriatingly brazen and it will no doubt fly under the radar and be allowed to slide, if not expanded to all mail ballots.
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Early Voting Tracker- Elections Lab
in Cloak Room
Posted
The same thing that drives Trump's overperformance relative to downballot Republicans since 2016.
Voter: "TRUMPPPPPPPP!!!!!!!!"
Does not complete rest of ballot/poll.