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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/26/what-kamala-harris-financial-disclosure-reveals-about-her-investments.html Worth noting, Harris owns a bunch of passive index funds and pension accounts. No Pelosi or Trump like conflicts here. Might get wrecked when her 2.6% adjustable rate mortgage gets adjusted in 2027 tho. Don't know why you wouldn't have just locked in then. I may have to vote Trump over this.
  2. This is great but the "The top ten states for new voters are the 1st-9th, and 11th most populous states" line like it was insightful was kind of funny lol Your uncle is brat.
  3. Would like to see the figures with RFK included. In the polls I have seen, he has been more decidedly eating into Trump's support with Harris on the ballot as she seems to have brought some Biden skeptics home or at least into undecided territory.
  4. I'm sorry, what? So for one, your contention is that we have to the left over recent decades, to the benefit of black women and presumably other racial minority and/or lower socioeconomic cohorts - which would imply a general advancement of equality in society - and that is the wrong direction? Do you just not understand the implication there? Beyond that, Said black woman is looking back at 1992 and seeing significant deterioration in reproductive rights/women's healthcare, erosion of the Voting Rights Act, multiple tax cuts for the ultra wealthy and corporations putting more of the tax burden on the working and middle class, and disinvestment in education - most of which disproportionately impact black people. So what am I missing that makes up for that and so much more to the point that the idea that the political environment has trended to the right is absurd? Show your work here. Mainstream culture has gotten more liberal, sure. Divided but probably more liberal in aggregate. That's not matched in policy at all. The policy trendline and Overton Window have pretty clearly been moving right since Reagan was elected. Not necessarily a straight line but the overall direction.
  5. There are obviously people in this country considering voting Trump. A lot of them. He is, as it stands, still the favorite in this election. I think we've seen enough out of the GOP and its supporters to say that outright malice or gross misinformation is at the root of it for a good chunk of that group, but I don't doubt some potential Trump voters have good intentions. One might say... Some, I assume, are good people. I think those folks are making a bad choice, but that's a different conversation. I find it interesting that you've said you feel like voting conservative is the right thing to do, but feel that the country has been on the wrong track in recent decades. The trendline over that period has been to the right, save for a few social issues like legalization of marijuana and same sex marriage.
  6. People don't care about age. They care about vibes. Trump is just as old as Biden but sounds the same as he did 8 years ago. Walz definitely does not sound or come across like a pitter pattering old.
  7. The wild thing is that fucking a couch would be the most healthy position on sex JD Vance has ever taken.
  8. I mean, being in the GOP at this point categorically means full loyalty to Donald Trump. Look at Haley. Made a lot, a lot of noise in the primary and ultimately offered a whole-hearted endorsement. Trump is the platform, Trump is the party. Any female with an R by their name would ultimately pass this test. It's legitimately more likely he doesn't think any of them are hot enough.
  9. I mean, your hypothesis is a legitimate critique/concern of Harris. I couldn't tell you what the specifics are for her vision of the country because she's never really articulated that. It just so happens that 1.) Presidential elections are first and foremost personal popularity contests, and 2.) The Democratic party agenda is more popular than Joe Biden was personally - see polling on Senate races and Congressional generic ballot. Her being a relatively personable version of "Generic Democrat" may end up being a strength running against a very unpopular Donald Trump.
  10. Fully agree with you on the cultural bit, just ribbing the poster wanting Gen X to rise up. Although, re the SSA, they also seem to use 1965: https://www.ssa.gov/open/data/EOY-Generational-Data.html I've never heard the Kennedy assassination thing but I think I like that definition in theory.
  11. Eh, barely. Matchups make fights and when you look at then vs now it is barely comparable. 1.) The Democratic primary electorate is not the general electorate. 2.) She is running against Donald Trump as opposed to the full Democratic bench. 3.) She has since been elected to and served a term in the office of Vice President of the United States 4.) She is a woman and the political landscape for women has, uh, changed quite a bit since 2020. Yes, I think a lot of people intellectually knew it would by then (many did not though), but seeing Dobbs actually happen was something else entirely. 5.) Prosecutorial background was a tough rap in 2020. The zeitgeist on law and order has regressed to the mean since then; and again, she is running against convicted felon Donald Trump. Joe Biden was a terrible presidential candidate until he wasn't. Same for Donald Trump. Just like every championship team in sports benefits from luck over the course of a season, simply being in the right place in the right time is a major element of a successful presidential campaign. I don't know whether or not that will ultimately be the case for Harris but we've clearly seen enough to say that she might be the right person, in the right position, at the right time to win this election.
  12. This is a little misleading because the foreign born population (best easily accessible proxy for noncitizens) of Wisconsin and NC are minimal compared to TX, and Florida has a hugely disproportionate amount of old white people.
  13. Kamala Harris is a boomer, technically. Born October 1964. Nancy Pelosi was integral to getting Biden to step aside, though she is actually not a boomer because she's too old lol. Born 1940. She and Biden are Silent Generation. That is exactly what is going on. I feel okay given key positions won by Democrats in the 2022 Midterms and Biden's relatively robust judicial appointment volume, but I am sure the ratfuckery will be stronger than 2020 in the event of a GOP loss.
  14. A 40% chance is essentially a tossup. As things stand now it's ridiculous to include any of those light blue states in a "floor" for Kamala Harris. You are implying she is a sure thing. Her floor is removing those four and probably NM too. I think moving from Biden to Harris probably solidifies MN, VA, and NH for Democrats but it's still an uphill battle.
  15. I can sort of get this in the abstract, but where do you think Kamala Harris is going to significantly veer from the Biden administration's policy agenda? I agree if there's a situation in a 49-51 Senate where you need to get a crossover vote or two, Biden was more likely to be able to make that happen than Harris will be. But aside from that?
  16. Honestly Kamala Harris is pretty much equal to Generic Democrat to me, I could take her or leave her compared to hypothetical candidates in this cycle or her competition in the 2020 primaries. I don't love the idea of a President with a prosecutorial background absent the contrast to Trump. But she is the obvious answer in this specific situation, and the stupid ass MAGA meltdown combined with fucking nonsense like this has me fired up.
  17. 1. lol dumbass 2. You expect me to believe Stephen Miller is not okay with pretending elections never happened?
  18. This is why it's good and y'all are looking at it wrong. Perfect really if he did. Gives the appearance of a well known challenger who no one would accuse of toeing the party line, but in reality no one likes him and Harris cruises. @Gidnik which are you? I'm thinking OP? Stupid, sad, but yes.
  19. I could see being unprepared for one of the major governors or someone out of left field... But the sitting Vice President for the 81 year old POTUS? This is the best they have after the past few weeks? I'm sure it'll fine tune but I am not impressed. Democrats can win this.
  20. 1.) What? 2.) Your base doesn't know what a good chunk of those words mean. 3.) Those that do will revert to point 1.
  21. I know that, I'm just saying I think the idea that Roy Cooper is going to be worth several points in NC is dubious. I actually do think I'd pick him though. Even assuming it does not fundamentally change the race in NC, I think he's a good a pick as any to court independent/moderates and the potential cost of picking him is the lowest. Most other names floated have a tangible downside or don't have any in-state upside. Shaprio is really the only other name I'd consider, but he's actually quite valuable as an above-replacement value Governor of PA. Holding that position is going to be absolutely vital if Harris loses in November and you want Shaprio on the ballot, without the stain of losing the state as a VP candidate.
  22. Yeah this isn't surprising. Young black men, to be specific. This group was already gravitating to Trump and having a black woman is not going to help that at all frankly. Note I'm not talking about Trump winning this subgroup outright but getting 25%-30% of the black male vote. The hope is that there's upside with youth, women, independents, and that the Democratic base - of which black women in particular are a foundational part - is energized. If that proves true it's a worthy electoral trade off. If it doesn't you were probably never winning the election anyway because those were the same groups Biden was failing to reach.
  23. I think you're making a mistake in looking at it on the basis of merit as opposed to looking at ways the GOP can engage in ratfuckery.
  24. Don't y'all get it? It's funny because she's a woman (innuendo) and black (banana) - the right is getting better at comedy!1!1!1 These people, I swear to god.
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