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gmr548

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gmr548 last won the day on May 5 2020

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  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/26/what-kamala-harris-financial-disclosure-reveals-about-her-investments.html Worth noting, Harris owns a bunch of passive index funds and pension accounts. No Pelosi or Trump like conflicts here. Might get wrecked when her 2.6% adjustable rate mortgage gets adjusted in 2027 tho. Don't know why you wouldn't have just locked in then. I may have to vote Trump over this.
  2. This is great but the "The top ten states for new voters are the 1st-9th, and 11th most populous states" line like it was insightful was kind of funny lol Your uncle is brat.
  3. Would like to see the figures with RFK included. In the polls I have seen, he has been more decidedly eating into Trump's support with Harris on the ballot as she seems to have brought some Biden skeptics home or at least into undecided territory.
  4. I'm sorry, what? So for one, your contention is that we have to the left over recent decades, to the benefit of black women and presumably other racial minority and/or lower socioeconomic cohorts - which would imply a general advancement of equality in society - and that is the wrong direction? Do you just not understand the implication there? Beyond that, Said black woman is looking back at 1992 and seeing significant deterioration in reproductive rights/women's healthcare, erosion of the Voting Rights Act, multiple tax cuts for the ultra wealthy and corporations putting more of the tax burden on the working and middle class, and disinvestment in education - most of which disproportionately impact black people. So what am I missing that makes up for that and so much more to the point that the idea that the political environment has trended to the right is absurd? Show your work here. Mainstream culture has gotten more liberal, sure. Divided but probably more liberal in aggregate. That's not matched in policy at all. The policy trendline and Overton Window have pretty clearly been moving right since Reagan was elected. Not necessarily a straight line but the overall direction.
  5. There are obviously people in this country considering voting Trump. A lot of them. He is, as it stands, still the favorite in this election. I think we've seen enough out of the GOP and its supporters to say that outright malice or gross misinformation is at the root of it for a good chunk of that group, but I don't doubt some potential Trump voters have good intentions. One might say... Some, I assume, are good people. I think those folks are making a bad choice, but that's a different conversation. I find it interesting that you've said you feel like voting conservative is the right thing to do, but feel that the country has been on the wrong track in recent decades. The trendline over that period has been to the right, save for a few social issues like legalization of marijuana and same sex marriage.
  6. People don't care about age. They care about vibes. Trump is just as old as Biden but sounds the same as he did 8 years ago. Walz definitely does not sound or come across like a pitter pattering old.
  7. The wild thing is that fucking a couch would be the most healthy position on sex JD Vance has ever taken.
  8. I mean, being in the GOP at this point categorically means full loyalty to Donald Trump. Look at Haley. Made a lot, a lot of noise in the primary and ultimately offered a whole-hearted endorsement. Trump is the platform, Trump is the party. Any female with an R by their name would ultimately pass this test. It's legitimately more likely he doesn't think any of them are hot enough.
  9. I mean, your hypothesis is a legitimate critique/concern of Harris. I couldn't tell you what the specifics are for her vision of the country because she's never really articulated that. It just so happens that 1.) Presidential elections are first and foremost personal popularity contests, and 2.) The Democratic party agenda is more popular than Joe Biden was personally - see polling on Senate races and Congressional generic ballot. Her being a relatively personable version of "Generic Democrat" may end up being a strength running against a very unpopular Donald Trump.
  10. Fully agree with you on the cultural bit, just ribbing the poster wanting Gen X to rise up. Although, re the SSA, they also seem to use 1965: https://www.ssa.gov/open/data/EOY-Generational-Data.html I've never heard the Kennedy assassination thing but I think I like that definition in theory.
  11. Eh, barely. Matchups make fights and when you look at then vs now it is barely comparable. 1.) The Democratic primary electorate is not the general electorate. 2.) She is running against Donald Trump as opposed to the full Democratic bench. 3.) She has since been elected to and served a term in the office of Vice President of the United States 4.) She is a woman and the political landscape for women has, uh, changed quite a bit since 2020. Yes, I think a lot of people intellectually knew it would by then (many did not though), but seeing Dobbs actually happen was something else entirely. 5.) Prosecutorial background was a tough rap in 2020. The zeitgeist on law and order has regressed to the mean since then; and again, she is running against convicted felon Donald Trump. Joe Biden was a terrible presidential candidate until he wasn't. Same for Donald Trump. Just like every championship team in sports benefits from luck over the course of a season, simply being in the right place in the right time is a major element of a successful presidential campaign. I don't know whether or not that will ultimately be the case for Harris but we've clearly seen enough to say that she might be the right person, in the right position, at the right time to win this election.
  12. This is a little misleading because the foreign born population (best easily accessible proxy for noncitizens) of Wisconsin and NC are minimal compared to TX, and Florida has a hugely disproportionate amount of old white people.
  13. Kamala Harris is a boomer, technically. Born October 1964. Nancy Pelosi was integral to getting Biden to step aside, though she is actually not a boomer because she's too old lol. Born 1940. She and Biden are Silent Generation. That is exactly what is going on. I feel okay given key positions won by Democrats in the 2022 Midterms and Biden's relatively robust judicial appointment volume, but I am sure the ratfuckery will be stronger than 2020 in the event of a GOP loss.
  14. A 40% chance is essentially a tossup. As things stand now it's ridiculous to include any of those light blue states in a "floor" for Kamala Harris. You are implying she is a sure thing. Her floor is removing those four and probably NM too. I think moving from Biden to Harris probably solidifies MN, VA, and NH for Democrats but it's still an uphill battle.
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