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gmr548

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gmr548 last won the day on May 5 2020

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  1. This ignores demographic differences between states. The shifts that theoretically pull a GA or a NV into the R column may or may not have much of an impact in 80%+ white and much older states like WI, MI, and PA; and could even cause drift in the opposite direction. I think GA goes narrowly R this cycle. I think NV does too. I know @Js1 will roast me for that but the GOP has had some intermittent success in NV over the past decade, most recently a Governor's race in 2022, and the coalitions that delivered each state for Biden appear to have legitimate fractures. AZ is a complete wildcard. Fundamentally it's not far from NV but the prominence of abortion an the absolute toxicity of the state GOP bring it back into tossup category. Gallego is also a strong Senate candidate and his campaign could elevate Biden a bit. I don't see Trump finding 100k+ votes in MI or PA, even with the mess in Gaza. WI is one of the 2-3 legitimately 50-50 states in the country and could go either way, but Democrats there have been on a roll and have a generational opportunity at the state level. I think it will ultimately come down to WI and AZ. I think Biden needs both because Trump will put pressure on NE to go winner take all, the state level GOP will give in very late in the cycle and ram it through in a special session, and Maine will not have the ability or the appetite to respond in kind. Senate goes GOP 51-49 and the House is Democratic - not by a huge margin but more cushion than the GOP has now.
  2. Your wife needs to keep an eye on her voter registration from now until the election.
  3. It's an across the board phenomenon. Anecdotally, multifamily kinda sorta maybe seems to be moderating but it's too early to say with any confidence, and I wouldn't apply that claim nationally - sorry Gulf Coast, CA, etc.
  4. This is part of it for teenagers. A big thing for the older under 30s is that we're living in unprecedented times in terms of educational and professional opportunity for women. To be frank, women can have standards now and that hasn't been the case for most of human history. An able bodied young man who isn't an enormous prick and has a steady income will do fine. There not actuallythat many young men who clear all three of those bars.
  5. I mean if you want to talk about broad appeal, is there a better broad description for this country than the bolded?
  6. Electorally elder Gen Xers have pretty consistently delivered the biggest margins for Republicans in recent years. Similar to how Millennials are overwhelmingly Democratic but you wouldn't know from in this chart, that independent bloc is full of consistent Republican voters.
  7. You are right, I crossed early and late in my mind. Should have said early Gen X'er (i.e. came of age under Reagan as opposed to Bush I or Clinton). Though as a whole Gen X is still the most conservative generation out there, for all the shit boomers get.
  8. He is career business/finance academic and a late Gen X'er (the most conservative generational cohort in the country) who came of age during the Reagan revolution. There was the whole working with Dan Patrick on the Liberty Institute bit - though given it didn't go anywhere it seems like he was just humoring the politicians who wanted to get involved in a flavor of the month crusade. I doubt he is some mouth breathing, election denying, texags dipshit and prior to this week has always seemed to handle himself professionally - not injecting politics into his job - at least from what I can tell as an unconnected observer. But simple demographic probability and his track record at UT suggest it's unlikely he is any kind of progressive.
  9. The only thing I have to add is that it is extremely weird to me that some of you are taking the same stance as Texags and not immediately gut checking.
  10. The protesters are a bunch of 18-22 year olds and many of them were not even eligible to vote when Abbott was on the ballot for his third term in 2022. None of them wer eligible to vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020 or Abbott in 2014 or 2018. Putting this on their & their cohort's voting record is a very weak argument.
  11. Crazy, I guess I have to vote for Trump now. Things are worse for MAGA than I realized if this is the best they can do.
  12. Maybe read your link before you post it next time.
  13. For Charles, sure. For Carlos, not so much.
  14. This state is full of and run by such soft fucking wannabee authoritarian snowflakes. Yeah, let's dispatch UTPD and fucking DPS riot cops for some students conducting an antiwar protest on campus. That's the kind of society we should strive to be. Jesus. I'm ashamed to be a UT alumni today. Really disappointed in Hartzell and university leadership. They're either spineless or on the wrong side and I'm not even sure which is worse.
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