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gmr548

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Posts posted by gmr548

  1. 5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    No offense to your kid, but there's literally nothing Biden could do without the House and, when he had the House, a 50 seat majority in the Senate.   Oh yeah, and a 6-3 conservative christofacist majority on SCOTUS that will block him at every turn. 

    But that's what the young generation is struggling to understand - the president is not a dictator and he cannot just enact laws by himself.  JUST DO SOMETHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    It's funny, I had a conversation with my brother last year, who I would say is probably slightly to my left, and I was saying I'd give Biden like a B-. Adequate overall but failed to make enough progress on the two biggest issues in my mind: democratic integrity and climate (with the caveat that Biden's climate impact will really have to be evaluated a decade from now when the impact of the IRA can really be assessed). 

    And my brother just asked me, what else was he supposed to do with the situation in Congress? And it was a fair point. Now we can say that Democrats botched the elections in 2020 to a degree and should have had better margins with which to work, but the fundamental reality is that a very narrow Senate majority was always going to limit Biden to legislation that could be passed via reconciliation and bipartisan deals. Really all I could say was lean on the Senate to kill the fillibuster to get more significant legislation passed, which was probably a pipe dream.

    Before Israel I'd pretty much come around that Biden was the best POTUS in my lifetime (born early 90s) by a decent margin. I don't like our approach there; though I acknowledge it's basically a poison pill I can't abide allowing Israel to do what they've done. However, I don't understand the progressives entertaining not voting for Biden over this. Do you wan to be in the tent and influencing policy decisions or do you want to watch Trump encouraging his buddy Bibi to level Gaza?

  2. On 1/22/2024 at 4:55 PM, Red Five said:

    It's really amazing to witness the selfishness of these people. 

    "So you're going to risk American democracy and vote for the guy who tried a coup last time around?"

    "Yeah. I'd like to pay a little less for groceries." 

    It's also just stupid as hell from a purely self-centered standpoint. A double whammy.

    • Like 1
  3. 4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    My hypothesis is simple: Biden has a low approval rating because non-MAGA voters actually expect something from leaders and hold them accountable.  Thus, they can still prefer Biden over all other candidates, but at the same time, not approve of the job he's doing (I think it's mostly driven by disappointment on Israel, lingering economic anxiety, etc.  The Border is an issue for those voters, but not as big a driver as other issues).  

    That is, the Venn diagram of people who do not approve of Biden is a circle that overlaps 1) people who will absolutely vote for Biden, 2) people who will likely vote for Biden, 3) people who will likely vote for Trump (not many of these), and 4) people who are 100% in on Trump (most Trump voters are in this category).  Whereas the Venn diagram of people who do not approve of Trump is almost all "people who will never vote for Trump."  If you disapprove of Trump, you won't vote for him.  If you will vote for him, you necessarily 100% approve of him, because that's how fucking cults work.

    I am a pessimist at heart.  But I do think the hand-wringing about "Biden's relatively low approval rating" is a lot of noise signifying very little.  As just anecdotal examples, my wife and daughter both would probably fall on the "disapprove" side of Biden, mostly because they think he hasn't done enough on issues important to them (women's bodily autonomy) and has botched Israel.  BUT...each of them would also crawl 100 miles over broken glass to vote for him this election.

    This theory has some backing from the midterms in that a driver of the Democrats' relative success was keeping "Somewhat Disapprove" in the fold. That's not historically normal but neither was the MAGA, election denying alternative.

    Most incumbents also see their approval ratings rise in the run up to the end of their term as the alternative becomes a specific individual instead of a hypothetical. I expect the same to happen in 24, especially because we know how America feels about the other person, but this timeline is already strange.

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  4. 14 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

    How likely is it that Trump is left off a few ballots in a states, like Maine, which could cost electoral votes?  Could you imagine if he was kept off Maine's ballot, didn't have a chance at that 1 EV, and lost 268 to 270?  That would would be insane.

    If somehow Nikki pulls off the upset and takes the nomination away from Trump, how badly does that hurt the GOP nationally?  That has to cause a significant portion of their national support to skip voting and kill their chances in a lot of narrow races downballot for the House and Senate. Unless he runs third party, which would effectively tank Haley's chances of winning. 

    I'm still surprised at Biden's low approval rating, hovering around 38% right now. I thought he would be in the mid 40s with the current economy. It's only dropped about 1% since the Israel/Gaza war, which is less than I expected. Is it the border crisis that's dragging him down? Would be great to get a deal passed in Congress to address that now, so we can hopefully see some improvement in a few months. Doubtful that will happen in the current landscape though. 

    Inflation/cost of living, border, 112 years old, GOP propaganda machine.

    All of the above; much of it may not necessarily be rational but we're talking about a polity of humans here. Don't expect rational.

  5. 4 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

    I don’t see it unfortunately.  I grew up in FL and that is Red state now.  It was blue mostly because of the olds in South Florida but as they have died off over the years the Republicans in the panhandle, influx of Republicans from other states and the republican Cubans in Dade county have made that state Red going forward.  Similar to Ohio.  It’s not a swing state.  

    Biden should spend almost all of his time in PA, MI, WI and then do a little in AZ, NV, GA, CO.  

    I mean I agree it's good for POTUS to maybe sneak in a working vacation for mental health's sake but otherwise there's zero reason for that

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  6. 4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    Florida will be more in play than usual. There is going to be an abortion referendum on the ballot and that's shown to help Dems in other states.

    My guess is that Trump and the FL GOP will work overtime to not have that referendum on the ballot this year.

    Interesting. I didn't know that. 2023 was the best year Dems have had in FL in a while. Something to keep an eye on.

  7. 4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

    I really really don’t  like Trumps chances in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
     

    As for Arizona,  the GOP haven’t been able to win seemingly anything since they shit on John McCain. They are unbelievably incompetent.

    as for Georgia, Biden only won it by 10k and it seems to be gop at heart. I just have a feeling that it might snap back to the GOP this time before demographics start to turn that state more blue. 
     

    seems like the democrats always fuck up in North Carolina. Things look good. We get excited and then…..disappointment

    Same story for the GOP with Nevada tho.

    Wisconsin is one of the two or three truly 50/50 states in the nation and it's not a super favorable state for Democrats, demographically. It's like 80% white and less than a third of adults have degrees. Democrats have scraped by in a couple of elections and it's not unwinnable but I don't see how it's any more than a tossup.

    Michigan is similar on the education front but more diverse and a little less religious. PA slightly more diverse and less religious than MI, and is better educated; and the growth of that state is in the Philadelphia metro and eastern PA where people - particularly immigrants and racial minorities - are moving in from NY. I think you can make a credible argument that those are blue tilts, but they're close enough that they'll go as independents go and it is too early to know how that is going to break.

     

  8. 6 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

     

    Those tossups seem to be a tough road for The Donald 

    I definitely think the apparent presumption in some circles that it will be Trump is very premature. I get Biden's approval is relatively low but you're looking for people who voted against him in the last election to flip back to Trump after he'll no doubt spend his time doing and saying insane shit on the campaign trail; and you're looking for it in large enough volume to not just erase margins of victory in 2020 but make up for cycling in of younger voters and dying off of older voters relative to 2020 that will be a net benefit to Biden.

     

    4 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

    The Arizona Republican Party is fucked. I doubt it will be close.

    Kari Lake was less than 20k votes from being governor all the same. It will be close.

  9. This is the map as it stands to me and honestly it is going to take a significant change in economic fundamentals or a major black swan event to change it. I think the only real hot take is I think NC is another legitimate tossup. Continues to be a leader inward migration and it's more of the garden variety HCOL market professional relocating than being a MAGA beacon like TX or FL.

    The economic fundamentals actually scream comfortable Biden reelection, but we're in a very polarized environment, he got caught holding the bag on inflation, the impossible Israel-Palestine situation is flaring up, and he's 117 years old. People really hate Donald Trump though and I buy that the electorate will start to remember that more intensely as he gets more media coverage and it becomes crystal clear to the average American that we're running it back.

    160mm voters and it probably comes down to < 100k aggregate votes in a few of these tossup states again. Democracy!

    DgnRp.png

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  10. 12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    If you know of anybody who you think leans towards those kinds of folks (maybe MAGA in general), just pass them this photo.  If they shit their pants and freak out, don't have anything to do with them.  If they ask why Tom Hanks is hanging with Oprah Winfrey and Gayle King, it's cool and why they look younger, it's cool.  It's a 10 year-old photo from when Oprah and Gayle saw him in a play and the message was a joke.

    GElKpbWagAAylU_?format=jpg&name=medium

    What if your first question is about the meat clock?

     

    Asking for a friend.

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  11. 4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

    I agree with all of this.

    As I've said before, Nevada is like Democratic Florida.  The Republicans always think they're going to win there; they never do.  It's not to say that the Dems don't need to work for it.  It is to say that given a decent Democratic incumbent--and Jacky Rosen is an above-decent incumbent--the Democrats shouldn't have much trouble holding this seat.

    On Texas, I just don't have a feel for it yet.  Cruz is wildly unpopular.  But it's going to take an exceptional Democratic candidate to beat him.  And even then, the presidential race is really going to dictate the outcome.  If Trump is down big in the polling and Republicans are demoralized--something akin to 1996--I could see an upset.  But otherwise, . . . no.

    In Florida, you're right about Rick Scott.  But Florida has become a lot more Republican over the past six years.  The Dems are probably going to have Debbie Mucarsel-Powell as their nominee and . . . yeah--I just don't know how strong a strong a candidate she is.  I don't think she really lights me up.

    Nevada's got a Republican Governor right now so they've won something. Tend to agree that it's a D tilt; it'll be a tough out, but beating incumbents is hard.

    Cruz will win Texas by 4-6 points. He can only lose if he alienates Cult 45. He's already endorsed Trump so I am assuming he'll stay in line the next 10 months and it'll be a non-event.

    Florida, I mean, there are some bright spots for Dems in the past 12 months if you squint but yeah I can't see it with Trump on the ballot.

    Senate is a heavy R overall. I mostly agree with @Js1's assessment of individual races, though I'd move WV to Safe R. But those lean/likely D's include a few that are just slight leans, and FL-T are really likely R. Dems have to make sure they take no losses in AZ, NV, WI, MI, and PA; win tossup-at-best defensive races in MT and OH, and win the presidency. Long odds on a parlay like that. Lose even once in any of those and it's a GOP senate.

    Biden and Schumer need to get busy with judicial vacancies.

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  12. Savea is a good add given the context of what's needed and available. There's no debating the room needed an upperclassman body - for those shitting on the take, what's the better alternative? I'd have liked to get Caldwell too but between grades/compliance and the Bo Davis departure it didn't come to pass. So it goes.

    I assume Texas is done in the portal until spring unless Muhammed wants in. Would be great if he does but even if he goes elsewhere they still put together an excellent portal class. Long way to go but I think this is a legitimate championship contending roster next season and I'm really excited to see how the spring shakes out.

    Kool Aid GIF

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  13. 4 hours ago, BeardIP said:

    What are the odds that Nicki becomes the VP nominee for Trump though? Checks the box of DEI in gender and perhaps they get mileage out of the Indian thing and she's Trump's version of Kamala Harris? 

    Zero, she's criticized him. SD Governor is your female VP nominee if they go that route.

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  14. 21 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

    What pisses me off even more is that if dotard dies within the next 10 months, I think it would actually help usher in whatever R took his place as the nominee.  You'd have his insane base that would probably vote R to avenge him or something and then all the disaffected "former" Rs that are just itching for any excuse to yank that R lever again.  Dems would still turn out, but I just think the R voters are more full of piss and vinegar than Ds in general, because they are crazier.

    If Trump were to die before the election his base would think the deep state killed him and I have no idea what they would do beyond get grifted by Don Jr and crew. I don't mean that in only terms of voting, I mean there would be tens of millions of loose cannons, cult members without a leader. I would expect violence. I think you're way too in the box here.

    Electorally, who knows. The timing would be really important given the logistics of getting other names on the ballot. Rs might suffer depressed turnout on the MAGA side but Haley could pull center right voters from the Biden coalition. It's a low probability event so not going to waste a ton of time on in.

  15. On 1/19/2024 at 2:43 PM, jimmyjazz said:

    I'm no economist, but I find this whole thing fascinating.  Demand has plummeted because interest rates more than doubled, but supply has also dropped, because most homeowners have cheap mortgages and they see no reason to sell.  So, prices have largely remained stable.  This puts further pressure on first-time buyers . . . they just can't afford the price+rate combo.

    At some point this constipated market will blow out, but I have no idea in which direction.

    I am with @Wulaw Horn. My bet is the direction is upward prices. The demand suppression from rates is transitory (and people tend to adjust to the new normal if it stays in place long enough anyway). There is a structural supply/demand imbalance.

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  16. 2 minutes ago, wackawacka said:

    1234

    Biden and Dems are likely to have a complete landslide win in 2024.

    • strong economy
    • divided Rs
    • wedge issue(s) motivating D and people switching tickets
    • olds dying off
    • corp money not wanting Donald

    We'll see. There's a path to victory and I certainly think the presumption that it will be Trump is very premature. 10 months is an eternity though and there is a real antipathy to Biden, justified or not.

    Honestly it'll probably come down to a five figure margin across a couple different states as the past two have. Any time you're talking about margins that narrow at the tipping point it is basically a toss up.

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  17. On 1/19/2024 at 3:51 PM, nbmishoid said:

    Every interview shows or tells of some person who swears the economy sucks vs the trump years.  Depressing the willful ignorance.

    Consumer sentiment just took the biggest two-month upward jump in my lifetime.

    There's still a ways to go for people's perception to catch up to reality, there are of course legitimate structural economic issues to address, and the economy needs to hold up for 10 more months... But with all those caveats that's probably the best news the Biden 2024campaign has received to date.

  18. 1 hour ago, midtown said:

    So my sister recently moved to TPA. Thinking about going to visit spring break.  I am UA and their price is insane but google flights showed me Spirit at $250 vs $490 for AA and like $800 for UA.  So wth.  FOr $250 how bad can it be?  Well by the time you add a carry on and pay $70 per seat each way its basically the same price as AA.   So whats the point of Spirit?  How is it even cheaper?

    Know what you're getting to and don't pay $140 to pick a seat that is identical to all the rest?

  19. 17 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    The good news for Biden is that Trump will go hard at Nikki and Ron’ and trash them and their supporters as RINOs. That’ll leave a mark that doesn’t scrub away easily. There’s already been Nikki and Ron supporters who were on CNN, etc. and then got trashed by MAGA on their social media accounts, and it’ll only get worse.

    No it wont. They will all come around, Ted Cruz style.

  20. On 1/10/2024 at 3:14 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

    Never mind the politics of this post we don’t have enough housing. The biggest input to the demand side was the combination of 

    1) Low rates (monetary stimulus by the Fed to encourage investment ahead of savings)

    2) The 2001, 2003, and 2017 Tax cuts (Fiscal stimulus expressly designed to protect/inflate asset values) 

    3) Millennials entering the workforce 

    And 

    4) The 2007-2010 financial crisis

    Elizabeth Warren sure as shit hasn’t endorsed #2, so I’m not sure Elizabeth Warren has to do with the other 3.

    but either way, local exclusionary zoning and bad planning standards prevented the infill boom that should have happened in response to the above. We need more housing.

    IOW Go get your shinebox and take it to the CR.

    But what you have to understand is FOX News said she is bad. And my uncle said so on Facebook too, right after he brilliantly protected his privacy by copy-pasting a paragraph about not taking his photos than had only two or three misspellings. 

    4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

    So rent shopping pays off?  Renewing a lease leads to higher cost?  Seems logical, if I understand the metric correctly.

    While it depends on the market, in the current climate yes because there has been a surge in new supply. This has not really been the case for a while.

    If I were an operator would I be playing hardball on lease renewal increases and letting people walk in this environment, only to end up leasing the unit at a similar rate to what I could have renewed at after incurring turnover costs and loss of rental income? No, probably not, but it does seem to be the case that some are. Most of 2024 is likely going to be pretty flat in terms of rents as that supply surge carries into the new year but I expect rents to start increasing notably again by 2025.

    In a relative sense it's a pretty good time to be a renter, for once. Also CPI rent data sucks in general and is probably inflating (hehe) inflation numbers a bit, just as it likely undersold inflation on the up-slope.

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