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gmr548

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Posts posted by gmr548

  1. 2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

    there is nothing less double down than romney to trump

    Except it kind of was (on accident) because the GOP insider talking points coming out of 2012 were all about needing to be more inclusive, to appeal more to women, minorities, and young voters, things like that.

    Instead Trump did very much the opposite of that and won, but he completely hijacked the party. It wasn't where leadership was trying to go.

  2. 58 minutes ago, tokamak said:

    I wouldn't count out TN at all. Feels like it could be the "next North Carolina" to me.

    What do you think about the flip side of this question? WI, PA, and MI will probably continue to be a headache for Democrats. MN maybe joining them in becoming swing-y? NM if Latinos move right and young people leave the state?

    What's the GOP's long game in PA? The state party has ben gutted, SEPA is the only growing part of the state, etc. I'm actually of the opinion that Trump represents the GOP high water mark in PA. MI and WI, yeah, I think they could ultimately trend right, particularly WI. Democrats have a lot of momentum in MI at least.

  3. 1 hour ago, tokamak said:

    Interesting to me that you listed Montana. I haven't looked at the numbers, but I've been wondering if there could eventually be enough Californians moving to Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho to make them competitive one day. Basically the same thing that happened to Colorado. Not a ton of EVs there, but it would be nice if they weren't Senate locks for the GOP (yes, I know Jon Tester exists).

    Democrats could create a 14 EV swing and pick up 4 senate seats if they just found 250k progressive, outdoor-inclined youth from the west coast and northeast and just moved them to MT and WY. Give them sham jobs with the DNC or something. 

  4. 2 hours ago, YGIFS said:

    Yeah, the trouble with Ohio is the educated and the youngers are moving out.  It's still experiencing growth but because of children of non-college in suburbs/exurbs/rurals.  The college and/or youngin's that would go blue are leaving that shithole.  North Carolina is the opposite, college/youngers are coming in and/or staying.  Rurals and non-colleges are dying off/not voting.  North Carolina is a fascinating political case-study that I'm too lazy to breakdown but I think while we spend a lot of time hand-wringing about Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and the Rust Belt/Upper-Midwest, Virginia and North Carolina are going to play out a much more telling and robust predictor of things in the next decade or so.  

    The ongoing realignment of American electoral politics is extremely fascinating, until you remember what's at stake lol.

     

    I agree with you on NC. It's been Lucy with the football for Dems in federal races many times for various reasons since Obama broke through, but Roy Cooper has won 2x, Democrats have won other competitive state level races, and you're right on the Demographics. It's not Florida level futile. I can definitely see it going the VA path where there is legacy Republican influence in the state government that is simply hard to root out, but becoming a steadily Democratic state federally.

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  5. 44 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

    if FL goes blue, its because it is nation-wide thing and the election would have been over long before that.  the demographics of olds, cubans, and confederates just doesn't play any more.  a blue FL probably doesn't come before a blue OH and NC. 

    NC yes, OH no, but agree with the general sentiment. If the Democrats win FL they have already won NC, GA, AZ, and NV (which is game over already - they could lose WI-MI-PA and would still win). FL isn't going to tip the election for Democrats, it's the score to go up 17 with 2 minutes left.

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  6. 15 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

     

    Mike Johnson was set to endorse but backed out because of pressure from Republican Senate campaign arm, McConnell, etc. Maybe Rosendale will play that up and the primary gets nasty.

  7. 32 minutes ago, South Austin said:

    Agreed.  Look at what happened last year in Ohio, passing a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights.  If Ohioans still give a shit about the abortion issue, and Biden can play that up in another showdown against Trump, I can see Ohio going blue in November.  

    I think it's 100% the other way around. Preservation of abortion rights takes the issue off the table and gives otherwise socially moderate Ohio voters that maybe would have considered crossing over carte blanche to vote their worst impulses (and they are pretty bad in that part of the country) on immigration without fear of an abortion ban.

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  8. 1 hour ago, Js1 said:

    This happened in 2020 too....

    They voted overwhelmingly for Biden.  In 2016, they were for Trump. 

    Democrats have consistently kept the "somewhat disapproves" in the fold when up against MAGA candidates under Biden. That's pretty atypical historically speaking but obviously so is the entire situation right now. Maintaining that against the final MAGA boss is going to be the key, and that includes the young voters being discussed because a lot of them fall in that bucket.

  9. Oh cool we're in the Lobo/Cruiser/YGIFS Republican primary rant stage of the election cycle once again.

    Look, if you took every Democrat that voted in the 2022 Primary and had them vote for the second place Republican, Abbott goes to a runoff and wins, and Dan Patrick wins by over 250k votes. It's a stupid pipe dream. That's before considering that for those of us who don't live in aggystan exurbs or rural areas, the Democratic primary is functionally the general election at the local level. I'm not passing on that to tell people how edgy I am for voting in the GOP primary.

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  10. On 2/6/2024 at 3:52 PM, Js1 said:

    Harris (by virtue of being VP), Whitmer, Shapiro, Scott Kelly, Warnock, Ossoff, Pete, Booker, Beshear, Wes Moore.  Those are your key players in the next 3 or 4 election cycles. 

    Newsome looks the part, but being from California, it's going to be a huge negative.  I thought about Jared Polis, but I think Pete is a more polished version of "the gay candidate." 

     

    On 2/6/2024 at 3:58 PM, longhornmatt said:

    People say Newsom because he’s actually good in front of a camera.  People say the others because [insert boilerplate reason here, like he/she is from ____ state or ____ ethnic group].

    The others are how you get Desantis type candidates.  Newsom will actually be liked by people unless some bad shit comes out about him (which wouldn’t surprise me, as he seems like he could be shady as hell, but assuming the worst thing is the marriage to Kim Gargoyle, then he’s probably ok). 

     

    On 2/6/2024 at 3:58 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    Newsome handles the California aspect correctly. When someone says "don't California my Texas" or whatever state, he pushes back that they should be as lucky to be as successful in CA. 

    And let's be honest, when someone in CA moves to TX, the average IQ probably goes up in both states.

    I actually like Newsom more than I expected to when I've heard him in interviews and what not, but I do think the liberal elite Californian thing is going to be hard to shake. He'll just get painted as out of touch coming up in private school, dating a celeb, and because of the French Laundry thing during COVID. And to be fair I can see how that strikes a nerve.

    Whitmer, Warnock, and Shapiro stand out to me as the fastest rising stars with the brightest futures because of the states they can mobilize.

  11. 13 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

    Wake the fuck up.  Look at everything else Lankford ever said or did.  One for-show-only “right” (knowing it would result in nothing happening) doesn’t make up for a lifetime of being a piece of shit MAGA fuck.

    It's the same shit with Cornyn. People think he's half decent because the point of reference is Cruz, but he is a piece of shit too.

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  12. On 2/1/2024 at 9:05 AM, tx 3 putt said:

    There’s no crisis …

     

    I've never heard this guy talk but he has a very northern accent. He of all people railing against Biden on immigration while representing Fort Bend of all places is something.

    On 2/1/2024 at 10:28 PM, cactusflinthead said:

     

    Of course Dan Patrick is spewing a bunch of nonsense; making bogus constitutional claims and making blanket statements that immigrants bring health issues and "most" of them are here to commit crimes, when immigrants are on average healthier and commit fewer crimes than native born Americans.

  13. On 2/4/2024 at 1:15 PM, immamac said:

    2020 was way worse than now because trump amplified the volume 100x. This cycle is just as dangerous but Trump is cooked and really it’s going to take a meltdown or something crazy for Biden not to win in a largely uneventful election that should be called on election night. The MAGA movement dies this cycle because the American public is going to put it to death intentionally. 

    Your track record on called shots like this is second only to Helobious and I now feel as bad about the election as I have this entire cycle.

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  14. I think the bill is bad policy and I am not losing any sleep over it not being passed.

    Republicans are also committing a huge political blunder with this whole saga and I am not losing any sleep over that either. They are passing up the chance to be able to claim they forced Biden/Democrats into doing something, and will now be painted as the party who dropped their own bill because Trump told them he wants to run on the issue. They've said the quiet part out loud and removed all pretense that they are anything but puppets for Trump's whims. The MAGA base will be as thrilled as ever but this is the first reminder of what I'm sure will be many for the small bloc of persuadable independents/moderates that these people are dysfunctional, cynical lunatics that cannot govern.

    The irony is that Republicans couldn't get this bill or a similar bill passed with a trifecta. It will be the best chance they have to enact anything like this. For one they simply aren't competent enough to get the party united behind a single bill and pass it on their own, and they also wouldn't get any Democratic support as opposition like they are now; no way it would get 60 votes in the Senate when Democrats have nothing to gain by making concessions. Best case scenario they'd have to walk the plank and kill the fillibuster.

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  15. 1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

    Gov. Gavin Newsom has gone viral for shoplifting at Target. Well, sort of.

    The governor didn’t actually steal anything. But as he tells it, he did witness someone blatantly walking out of a Sacramento-area store with an armload of stolen stuff, presumably right in front of his own intimidating-looking security detail. And when Newsom asked why no one was taking action, the clerk told him it was the governor’s fault.

    Newsom has made it too easy to steal, he said the clerk told him — before realizing who he was and freaking out.

    Newsom, who was Christmas shopping with one of his children at the time, said he was outraged. It’s just not true, he said he told the clerk. California has the tenth-toughest laws against retail theft in the nation, he lectured — in a way that must have seemed super weird until she deduced his identity.

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    “I said: ‘Why didn’t you stop him?’ ” Newsom said he asked the clerk.

    “She goes, ’Oh, the governor’ ” — he broke off — “swear to God, true story, on my mom’s grave.” He added that the clerk had the temerity to tell him: “The governor lowered the threshold, there’s no accountability. … We don’t stop them because of the governor.”

    Newsom told the story this week to a group of mayors from around the state who had gathered on Zoom for a news conference on his mental health initiative, Proposition 1. He and the mayors were chatting among themselves while waiting for San Francisco’s London Breed and San Diego’s Todd Gloria to log on. After relating the anecdote, the governor added that he hoped the two mayors weren’t the only ones not yet signed into the Zoom. “Hopefully, all the reporters weren’t on,” he said.

    Too late. The exchange, posted on X (formerly known as Twitter) and then picked up by television and print outlets around the state, quickly went viral — catnip in the heated debate about retail theft and Proposition 47, which reduced some thefts and drug offenses to misdemeanors to reduce mass incarceration. Some critics have blamed Proposition 47 for the rise in thefts.

     

    Newsom himself came out last month calling for legislation to crack down on “professional thieves” without amending Proposition 47, noting that one of the wine stores he owns in San Francisco was robbed at least three times in 2021. He pointed out that Texas’ threshold for felony theft is among those that is higher than California’s.

    But those points did little to calm the viral story. The chairwoman of the state Republican Party, Jessica Millan Patterson, quickly jumped into the fray, writing on X: “Shout-out to this store clerk for saying to the governor’s face what every Californian has wanted to say: that he and his radical @CA_Dem buddies are to blame for CA’s surging crime. Sadly, Newsom still didn’t seem to take the hint.”

    Newsom’s office declined to identify which Target the encounter occurred at, to keep the media from mobbing the store. They did say the encounter took place in the Sacramento area, around Christmastime, while the governor was shopping with one of his children.

     

    The exchange, the governor said, ended with an attempt at a photo-op.

    As the governor was explaining how strict California’s retail theft laws actually are, the clerk, he said, “looks at me, twice. She freaks out. She calls everyone over, wants to take photos.”

    “I said, no, I’m not taking a photo,” Newsom said. “We’re having a conversation. Where’s your manager? How are you blaming the governor?”

    He added: “Why am I spending $380? Everyone can walk the hell right out.”

     

    Having worked retail as a kid, frontline employees have always been instructed not to confront a thief. It's a safety issue and the corporations do not want to be liable to anything happening to either party.

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  16. 1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

    The entire Cold War?

    Uh the US had over 40k killed and 100k missing in Korea and 58k killed in Vietnam (I can't find a quick number on the wounded figure). 

    But aside from that sure.

    Cynically you could also say current Ukraine policy is welfare for US defense contractors and that is probably true to the degree; I just think in this case the cynical and the right moves are not mutually exclusive.

  17. 3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

    The CHIPS Act and the infrastructure bill sure seems like some of the best money the US Govt will ever spend.  The IRA and PACT seem like they’re too big, but needed to be done.  ARPA seems like it was big mistake that exacerbated inflation and paid a lot of the wrong people.  Still, overall that’s a very good resume for old Joe.

    If the IRA pans out and actually reduces US GHG emissions by 40% by 2030 it's the most cost effective legislation in the history of the nation. 

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  18. 2 hours ago, Js1 said:

    Don’t let the media tell you Biden has a problem with black voters

    Meanwhile, both Williamson and Phillips are below 2% in SC lol. Dean Phillips tanked his entire career in the Dem party with this run. 

    Biden doesn't have a problem with black voters; he has a problem with low info voters, black and otherwise.

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