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Not a Sock

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Posts posted by Not a Sock

  1. 5 hours ago, closetojumping said:

    "Every cycle is different."

    Since the 2022 cycle forward, NIL and the portal have combined to create an extremely complicated landscape to navigate. Texas (the Surly/Burton cabal, the AD, Sarkisian and staff, big money boosters) have solved the riddles presented in front of it each time. It hasn't been voodoo or just following the same "process". It's taken a lot of collective buy-in and hard, smart work and some luck each time.

    Hell, part of why Saban quit is because he couldn't model future recruiting cycles and portal activity into his "process". I don't know how much of the details he's gone into publicly about that, but he's gone into the nitty gritty on it in private, and he's become a plaintive bitch about it. 

    At some point during each cycle, something has clicked for everyone involved and Sarkisian has been able to close on recruits, the current roster, and portal candidates. You can find the moments on the timelines for each period, really. Whatever the case, each cycle from July 1, 2021 forward has involved a spring/summer period of complete fucking shock. This one looks no different. I think a lot of folks are currently flatfooted by how some other programs are initial handling ramifications around House. 

    "Past performance does not really inform future returns."

    I think this is important to note for this board, largely because there seems to be a reflexive "this is how it always goes" notion from the natives of this forum. I get it, but I'm not personally subscribing to that line of thinking. Why? Because the dynamics of this cycle are, yet again, different. 

    Some of the money being thrown around by other schools, whether because they can (Oregon, Michigan) or because they're desperate (USC, LSU, Florida) or because they cannot help themselves and refuse to fall behind (Ohio State, Notre Dame) is fucking shocking. This is not a case of $100k making the difference. When other offers are coming over the top of yours by more than $1M for non-QB roles, that's just flat out new. 

    Don't conflate some of these situations with a collective getting or staying aggressive, either. Some of this is coming through the school and not subject to the same compliance. It's "rev share" money. What happens if what's reported to be 85% of $20.5M is really $35M because the program can just do that? I haven't read the House agreement, but what I've heard and what makes sense is that if someone is washing through the rev share, no one externally is going to have the mechanisms to see or hinder that, or punish it. 

    So what can programs do if that's the case?

    Do it as well? Not likely. Most schools cannot. The $20.5M is a huge fucking burden to get to in the first place. Other schools are just not going to take that approach. It seems pretty clear to me that Texas isn't going to do anything of that sort. 

    Keep building through collectives? The burden has now been lightened for boosters at places like Texas, no doubt. However, if Texas wants to reach the mountain top and stay around there, they're going to have to be honest with themselves about it, much as Ohio State and Notre Dame are currently having to be as well. Will Texas? I don't know, but I'm relatively informed and still optimistic.

    "Maybe everyone is just catching up to us in NIL!?"

    I feel like this anxiety needs to walk away from the keyboards of this board, if nowhere else. No one is going to "catch" a competitive advantage. There is a very small handful of schools that sit above the rest in terms of access to capital and House doesn't change that. Texas would have to choose to give that up. Is that something a totally aligned organization and its benefactors are going to let happen? It seems unlikely. 

    I think it is fair to think that Texas is still surveying the landscape and not making all of the moves early, but it will eventually take action and flips and surprises will fall in our favor down the line. I also think it is prudent to realize that there's risk on in this cycle that either may not happen or the calculations will be wrong, with timing being yet another factor that could work against Texas out of nowhere.

    "The current season doesn't really impact the current recruiting cycle."

    One final thought around all of this is that the performance within the season now matters more than ever. The old thought above this in bold is now an old trope. Money being funneled in for recruiting and roster management is some of the same money recruiting to buyout an old coaching staff and to hire a new one.

    Florida's money started flowing after they decided to keep Sun Belt Billy. If that flips and they have to fund a big buyout, there will be blood with that roster and recruiting class. If USC fucks the chicken again, they likely still can't afford to buyout Riley, but that obvious future need may well close off the NIL valve and lead to serious attrition even without coaching change. These are scenarios that will play out at multiple schools before the mythical "signing day" in December. 

    I think Texas is going to have another amazing year on the field, so it can only benefit from the carnage within the realm of poor performance and coaching hot seats and firings.

     

    I just don't see how on earth an athletic department is going to hide millions of dollars in excessive revenue sharing long term. ADs can and will be audited and millions of dollars will attract the attention of regulators with actual teeth and now you're creating situations in which fines and jail time become a risk for playing games. 

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  2. 32 minutes ago, TXpride said:

    The implication was that they haven't had mass exoduses due to lack of NIL funding, which is true. Players leaving early for the NFL has very little to do with NIL, or lack thereof.

    The sky isn't falling, but it looks like Sark and TPTB will have to reevaluate some things and adjust accordingly. They've done just that every cycle, and I expect them to do it again.

    It has everything todo with NIL. Do you think that there are separate funds for roster retention and high school recruiting? The money directed towards Hill is going to reduce the funds that can be allocated towards recruiting a HS player. Schools that have a shitty roster are going to have an advantage in being able to fund their recruiting vs having to spend on retention.

  3. 18 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

    Has Ohio state had a mass exodus? Georgia?

    Yes? OSU and Georgia both took heavy losses to the NFL draft. So far most of Texas’s draft success has come from the development guys or one year rentals that were cheap from an NIL standpoint. Banks and Worthy so far has been the only big dollar NIL player to leave Texas via the draft. There’s a reason basically every preseason prediction has both UGA and OSU behind Texas.

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  4. 23 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    The state has changed a great deal from the 1990s to present. The rural kids that were automatic aggys are gone. Their families moved to the suburbs. A vast majority applied to Texas and didn’t get in. If you don’t believe me, go join a rodeo committee and ask somebody under 30. 
     

    They still do a good job of indoctrinating them at fish camp, but it’s a not a multi-generational of anywhere but UT thing anymore. That’ll die out with Looch’s dumb ass generation. 

    This is absolutely not true, multigenerational ag families are alive and growing. Texas is the school that’s has completely destroyed generational pipelines.

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  5. 6 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

    BTW, Corpus Christi is an hour closer to Austin than Galveston is. So there.

    Not that Corpus Christi is exactly paradise or will remind anyone of Hawaii, either, but the water isn't brown. 

    It’s green instead of brown, but not blue. Also the massive population of sea manatees that crowd the beaches drags it down as well. But corpus does have S tier bay fishing going for it.

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  6. 7 hours ago, victory88 said:

    We have seen this train wreck:

    - Overpay a bunch of incoming freshman.  Many of those are coming only because the money was too much to say no to.

    - Older players get pissed they are in contributing/starting roles and their backups are making more

    - Older players don't welcome or integrate the younger guys leading to culture issues

    - Older players transfer out of the program leading the younger players starting when they are not physically or mentally ready.

    - 5-7 loss season ensues because you're playing a bunch of young players, lack depth, and experience.

    - Same players portal out because they do not want to play for a losing program, realize they are putting out bad film, and are not getting developed.

    - Aggy fires their coach.

    College football programs can now put themselves into NFL rebuild cap hell situations. You fire a coach and all the quality players portal out. Your roster is dirt cheap but crap, so you go big and spend all your money on rookies (HS recruits) and free agents (portal). Now all your vets leave but you have your new expensive signing class, but you have to also sign your new class and cheap out on that because you’re having to now pay your current roster. You are  never able to successfully build depth or continuity and you fire your coach for underperforming so you start the process all over again. This is must watch TV because we are now getting into an era where programs can destroy themselves for years at a time and require full scale institutional rebuilds beyond just hiring a new coach. At least in the NFL they have contracts, the draft, rookie pay scales and mandatory league reporting to add clarity and transparency to what’s going on.

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  7. 22 minutes ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

    I’m still confused on this brown situation. We got development from a few players we thought were jags, this year we are relying on a peg leg Tar Heel and transfers. Getting a 5 star to have for multiple years seems like a massive need. Same with Bowman? I understand not being able to pay everyone what they want to the max but when are we going to start swinging our big Texas D and saying F it, an extra million won’t hurt. He went from loving our visit to now it’s over? 

    Because it’s fucking stupid. USC is paying Bowman something absurd like 7.5 million over 3 years. 2 million plus for a TE is regarded unless he’s putting up Brock Bowers numbers. Y’all need to familiarize yourself with the concept of Cap Hell which is going to be a big thing in college football going forward. Also A&M and USC suck ass and don’t have  an elite roster that cost a fortune to retain but is actually proven unlike high school recruits.

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  8. 12 hours ago, closetojumping said:

    The guy is a piece of shit. The fact that he is gainfully employed in a people person industry is fascinating. He’s never been worth a shit with what he does. 

    Even though I consume their content you have to have a certain lack of shame to be employed as a purely recruiting “reporter “.  Guys like Gerry and Jeff at least have talent in regards to being player evaluators and being able to project scheme fits and development.  

  9. 18 hours ago, UTEX_ME said:

    better than this 

    Tom Herman Is the 2017 Cover Boy of Dave Campbell's Texas Football

    Can you imagine time traveling back to this on the Shag and telling the board that this dipshit gets canned and we hire the dude that USC just fired for being a drunk? Also I would absolutely want to time travel back in time and post the all the  2024 results and 2025 preseason predictions on Texags. 

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  10. 12 minutes ago, Red Five said:


    Offseason chatter about the roster/starters is essentially gone, outside of one or two spots. Who is going to play nickel, and well that’s pretty much it. There have been times where the offseason talk was like “hey is there a combination of five guys we can put on the o-line who won’t embarrass the university all that much? Also who is going to play QB and TE and DT and LB and…..”

    Also we no longer endlessly debating and watching G5 film on what our new O/DC is going to install to fix our offense or defense. While we also discuss how the former blue chip recruits that have regressed will be coached up like the G5 3rd round picks our new coaches had put in the league before being hired by Texas.

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  11. 21 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

    He is wearing a toupee to cover the severe burn scars all over his head. 
    He was shot down while piloting his helicopter in Vietnam in 1968. It caught on fire, burning off his nose, ears, hair, and his forearm that he was holding over his eyes (saving his eyesight). 
    He spent two years recovering through many surgeries at the Brook Army Hospital burn unit in San Antonio, with many months lying face down. 
    Then many months more with his good arm strapped up by his head while a strip of flesh was attached to grow him a new nose. 
    In spite of the severity of his wounds, he recovered well enough to remain in the Army, becoming a helicopter battalion commander and eventually retiring as a lieutenant colonel.
    Along the way he married a beautiful Army nurse, adopted a child who grew up & graduated A&M, becoming a nurse herself. 
    Unfortunately his wife passed away a decade ago from an aneurysm. 
    Their daughter got married and recently made him a proud grandfather who enjoys making the infant smile by singing military cadence songs (clean ones) to him.

    He is a true BAMF

    He and Mrs. Brat were a steady couple from their high school senior year until they broke up their last year in college. 
    We are all good friends to this day.

     

    IMG_3589.jpeg

    Why wear a wig when he can wear the fact he’s a BAMF?

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