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Not a Sock

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Posts posted by Not a Sock

  1. 1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

     

    Well, sort of.  Today, using the BTN as an example cable companies pay the carriage fee, then pass it off onto the customers. So, what if that goes away?

    BTN goes to strictly streaming at $20 per month, and odds are they have already calculated just how much they can get by with charging and keep roughly the same amount of viewers.  Plus, BTN could start to move some product over to their streaming solution that to boost viewership (who is going to televise all the B1G basketball now that ESPN isn't going to do it in the future) that you can only see by subscribing.  Yes, it sucks, but folks much smarter than I have pondered this at the conference, the various networks and media properties, etc.  Again, sports has advertisers willing to pay, because it is live content.  Now, are they willing to pay for Rutgers-Maryland in basketball? 

    Fox, CBS and NBC are not cable networks, so...those are going to be continued to be carried by traditional cable outlets and whatnot.  The real worry is ESPN, considering what the carriage fee is for the bundle of ESPN channels ($15 a month or so? if I remember correctly).  There's always the threat of some cable outfit dropping ESPN, but it has never happened, as far as I know.  Again, ESPN has live sports, and spots for the cable carriers to sell advertising as well.

     

     

      If you lose all the auxiliary channels and carrier fees that seems like a huge danger to the Big 10 with them have half of the conference filled with dead weight, then can't you run into the issue of you having too much inventory? OSU vs UM or USC vs PSU is going to be worth it's weight in gold, but what the hell do you with UCLA vs Purdue or Rutgers vs Illinois? Stick them on a subscription BTN streaming app? They are going to get a fraction of a fraction of people to sign up in comparison to being able to force it on everyone in LA, NY, NOVA.

  2. 17 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

    Live sports is the one thing that is DVR proof; that's what the worth is, no matter what happens with cable or whatever.  People want to view sports; live.  So, advertisers will continue to pay, networks will continue to pay, and the Earth will keep spinning.

    The distribution methods may change, but the end result (a product that people want to watch live, with carve outs for advertisers to hawk their wares) remains the same.  

    That doesn't really address my question, a huge amount of the value of these media deals is specifically because they can charge people who aren't actually watching. The BTN gets to charge 1 dollar to 20 million households for Rutgers vs Maryland even if only 300k actually ever tune in. So my question is if that model dies and is then purely then streaming advertising value of your product. What then?

  3. In the big picture, what happens if the carriers start hacking away at networks? If in 10 years Comcast, Spectrum, Directv etc, say 70 percent of our subscribers only watch Fox News, sitcom reruns on TBS and murder mysteries on oxygen so we are going to start dropping expensive sports packages like BTN, ACCN, SECN, or even bigger they drop things like FS1, CBSSN, ESPN 3/U and still charge $75/month?  With the mentality of "Whatever small amount of subscribers we lose will be made up with the increase in margin." This seems like it would be a major blow to these media deals, and would be a massive shotgun blast in the stomach to the Big 10. 

  4. 6 hours ago, sportsbay said:

    Long term, the B1G needs to pull HS players from the south to get their league to a level where it can compete with the SEC teams and even B12 teams on the field top to bottom.  The B1G is going to go about this in 1 of 2 ways.  It is going to commence revenue sharing with players to a point where the south cannot match.  Well most of the south, they aren't outbidding Texas, Texas ANM, and many teams in the SEC but overtime the goal will be to pull enough away to start moving the needle.  

     

    Secondly, they will push for an outright draft of high school players like the NFL drafts college players.  It wouldn't work now, but if they are able to shave down the number of teams, then they can start to push for a draft.  Will student athletes and parents go for it?  IDK.  Will fans go for it?  Defenitley not in the South.  I think this is the less likely option ,but don't fool yourself, it is something they want badly.

    This is one of the stupidest fucking comments I have ever read. While the Big 10 leverages media deals larger than the SEC the SEC still beats the Big 10 in actual athletic department so funding a roster would still favor the SEC. A Highschool draft is literally the fucking stupidest thing I have ever heard not only would absolutely nobody ever agree to it, even if they did agree to it, it would be outright illegal as it’s an antitrust violation.

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  5. 2 minutes ago, Loose Stool said:

     

    Perhaps part of the issue is that Mobilehoma is part of this deal and maybe they didn't have the legal horsepower, couldn't afford the buyout or wasn't in a position to leave early (for whatever reason?)

    At a point spending hundreds of millions of dollars to get an extra year or two in the SEC doesn’t make economic sense.

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  6. 20 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    So we’re screwed unless TV changes their mind. Cool, cool. 

    That’s what I call leadership at the flagship university in the second largest state in the US. 

    Yes, long established legal precedent of leadership being able to void legal contracts, how have we not taken this course of action.

  7. Y’all really seem to missing the point with the future Big 12, they can not compete with the SEC or Big 10, nobody can. But the Big 12 will have interesting and fun football, they will never be able to compete with things like Texas vs Bama or USC vs OSU, but 5-0 UCF vs 4-0 OKstate  is going to be a lot more interesting than 2-3 Mizzou vs 3-1 Scar or 0-4 Illinois vs 2-3 Maryland. They aren’t competing with that top end of the Big 2 they are competing with the 3rd and 4th rate programs. 

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  8. 1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    U of H won 12 games last year. The Texans won 4. Who do you think dominated Houston's attention? 

    It should improve in the Big 12, but this state goes full SEC the second Texas enters the conference. 

    U of H as a sleeping giant is like me having sex with Ana de Armas. It's technically possible because we're both alive at the same time, but it doesn't mean it's going to happen. 

    This is missing the point completely, the Big 12 isn’t competing with the SEC, Texas plays at 7pm and A&M plays at 3:30.  But I would absolutely tune into watch a 10-2 UH play 10-2 OSU at 11 am while I do chores around the house.

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  9. 29 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

    A fun tidbit to come out of the Kirkland stuff is that Bedenbaugh is apparently not a hit with the non-whities in the trenches these days. I don't know if that's been a known thing for some guys like @golfclap or a few of the okie recruitniks that are on here and not completely worthless like @Pdawg88 and @kilroydos , but I hadn't heard it or read it before. And if the okies think it's bullshit, that would also be a good data point, even if it is less entertaining to consider. Either way, I heard it in passing while bullshitting with a buddy who would know, but I didn't ask for details or do any research.

    Miami has no room for Kirkland, but they don't think he's a bad take. He's developmental and has the raw materials that Flood and Cristobal crave - overall size and strength. Cristobal needs guys that can contribute immediately and Flood needs guys that can play after 2-3 years on campus. 

    Kirkland could legitimately commit to MSU tomorrow even if they don't expect that. Or he's committing to Texas in one of the most bizarre recruitments in my 30+ years of following recruiting religiously.

    I hear it’s because he refers to the white linemen as his “Honky’s” and he is obsessive with the word to the point that he has a bootleg rap trac called Honky’s in Paris.

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  10. 40 minutes ago, 'stache said:

    I don't think he can get them into the Big 10, but he can put the new league on a hell of a good start using his resources and influence. I don't know what that would look like necessarily, but something NIL relating comes to mind.

    His resources and influence are limited, Oregon has been his pet project but Nike is absolutely not going to let’s its swoosh cash cows in the SEC or B1G be challenged. If you want to talk about his fortune that he leaves when he kicks the bucket, we’ll he isn’t special in that case.

  11. 6 minutes ago, sportsbay said:

    A 2nd or 3rd place 2/3 loss SEC team is likely to have a "higher" rpi than a 1 loss b12 or ACC champ.  This will get messy if the lower 2 conferences think they are written off.  It will kill cfb.

    The lower conferences don’t matter anymore they’ll agree to what the SEC and Big 10 want or they can rot.

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  12. 28 minutes ago, HouTex said:

    I keep checking in on this thread hoping to see an announcement that we will be in the SEC beginning with the 2023, or even 2024, season.  What’s the consensus on when the move will happen?   I really don’t see it happening early.  

    2024 at the earliest as ESPN takes over the SEC from CBS but at that point why pay a hefty exit penalty instead of just letting the GOR expire.

  13. Fox and the Big 10 might have grossly overplayed their hand here. ESPN already has the ACC and SEC, if ESPN can help cause the remaining Pac to collapse and jump ship to the Big 12 and ESPN is able to swoop in for the Big 12 media rights ESPN would have completely flipped the Alliance on the Big 10 and Fox. The ACC needs to keep ND in their current semi joined state, the SEC wants to keep ND out of the Big 10, the Big 12 wants to keep ND independent so the Big 10 hold fast at 16 teams and the Big 12 can grab a homeless Oregon and Washington. At that point the Big 10 and fox are completely boxed in, the SEC throws some bones to the ACC and Big 12 with auto bids for the conference champs and use the deeper SEC to squash the Big 10 with unfavorable match ups. Have  the ACC, Big 12 and ND eating up playoff spots the SEC can then get 4 teams like Bama, Georgia, OU, or LSU/UT/UF/AU and stack that up against OSU, UM, PSU, USC, but then there is the big drop off to Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska which just can’t  match the SEC in fire power.

  14. 1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    SC and UCLA are still in the PAC if their regarded former commissioner Larry Scott didn’t block the 12 team playoff. Kevin Warren cleverly manipulated Scott to block it. And here we are a few later with Warren carrying away the PAC’s premier program. 
     

    Why the ACC blocked the playoff is baffling. Notre Dame wanted it, and so did their TV partner ESPN. 

    The Alliance got played in brutal fashion by the Big 10, the Pac tried to protect the Rose Bowl only to have the Big just out right take it. Sankey and the SEC worked to make sure that ND had a path to the playoff with the purposed 6 conference champs +6 at large. The ACC stupidly thought it had the genuine support of the Big 10 so they shot down the 12 team playoff in an attempt to force ND to join the ACC as a full member, however with both the Pac and Big 12 mortality wounded the SEC and Big 10 now control the playoffs future and thus if ND joins a conference its gonna be the Big 10. 

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  15. 18 minutes ago, YouLoveMyPenises said:

    Comcast is orders of magnitude bigger than Fox.

    Which doesn’t actually mean much, NBC while a subsidiary of Comcast still operates as it’s own company and the limitations as purely broadcast company same with ESPN and Disney.

  16. 12 minutes ago, YouLoveMyPenises said:

    Why would NBC partner with the Big 12 when SEC and Big 10 media deals are coming due?

     

    If they wanted to be serious about CFB, why would they muck around with the minor leagues?

    Because they don’t have the pull to get either of those two.

  17. 55 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

    Bold predictions:

    I think the SEC and BIG will stay at 16. ESPN makes the money work to keep the PAC 10 afloat. ESPN+ could have some interesting programming with the PAC 10 and Big 12’s second and third tier game. The top ACC teams have to eat shit until 2036. Notre Dame makes a deal with one of Fox and ESPN’s competitors, and remains independent. 

    Yep, everyone but the Big 10 and Fox benefits from ND staying independent. The SEC, ACC and ESPN are going to fight to keep ND from ending up in the B1G and any path for an independent ND opens up a path for the Big 12 and Pac as well.

  18. 9 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

    The Big Ten would take new markets with academics.  Outside of ND, the other candidates are Miami and GT (Atlanta) in addition to UNC, Duke, UVA and they could even make a BC just for the market alone and there is an outside shot they look at Syracuse (NY state) again like they reportedly did last time.

    Unofficially I could see a handshake deal where the Big Ten gets gets ND/Miami while SEC get UNC/UVA.

    B1G: ND, Miami, GT, and BC (ND and 3 top 10 metros in top 15 states; put the B1G in 8 of the top 10 metros missing only Houston and DFW)(if they go to 24 they could add Seattle, Phoenix, and San Francisco and have 14 of the top 16).

    SEC: UNC, UVA, FSU, and Clemson (2 fb powers and the flagships of the only two Southern states missing from the SEC)

    The Big 10 is signing their own death warrant if they take even more garbage programs like GT, BC, Cal, and ASU or they take wild cultural outliers like Duke and Miami all in the pursuit cable boxes. It’s not 2010 cord cutting is eating into that pie and cable adoption is basically zero and reaching the point when the average cable subscriber is 60 and the only ad revenue is from Medicaid supplement insurance companies. At that point the networks will derive most their value from the ad space they can sell in big match ups, OSU vs USC or UM vs ND is something that the networks will be willing to payout the ass for. But what happens when 50% of the inventory the Big 10 is trying to sell the networks is worthless garbage like Rutgers vs GT or Boston College vs Cal? Now these teams do nothing but eat into the pie that OSU, PSU, UM, ND, USC generate as they bring nothing to the table as programs themselves.

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